weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 But what changed so much in 4 hours? One op run? Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I have no idea what Kevin is saying. So because we say the gfs op was cold, that's supposedly a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro ensembles?But haven't they been changing almost daily since Nov when epo went neggy? The general theme is modeling has been having trouble handling that and there's been lots of model noise but the general pattern has remained below normal. What globally is different now that one ens run should cause hair loss and intestinal distress? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 But haven't they been changing almost daily since Nov when epo went neggy? The general theme is modeling has been having trouble handling that and there's been lots of model noise but the general pattern has remained below normal. What globally is different now that one ens run should cause hair loss and intestinal distress? I think we're seeing a well telegraphed relaxation with the EPO flattening or even going positive for a short spell. Think 12/1-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 I think we're seeing a well telegraphed relaxation with the EPO flattening or even going positive for a short spell. Think 12/1-5. But hasn't that been the worry or discussion since mid-late Nov..That models were trending it positive..but it just never happened with wave break after wave break in the pacific? Maybe this time it will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 But haven't they been changing almost daily since Nov when epo went neggy? The general theme is modeling has been having trouble handling that and there's been lots of model noise but the general pattern has remained below normal. What globally is different now that one ens run should cause hair loss and intestinal distress? All models flatten the EPO. I think it's actually a typical relaxation and reshuffling. I still think we abg below normal m. This has been going on for a while. So yes I'm saying it will be stormy hence my Comment the other day. You're misinterpreting my comment and acting like worried. I'm simply just keeping an eye on how this materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yes, but the word "disaster" is what greeted me this morning as I reviewed the pattern thread. I realize though that tropopauses's pain is sometimes my gain....and stormy sometimes means snowy in the real NH. That was in response to this weekend, down here. That is what I meant as well. Leading into Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 My comment had nothing to do with longer range stuff. More just next 7-10 days per the overnight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 euro op sucks for this weekend. ec ens are cooler, but I'm fearing the warm side of the boundary. Here Brian, use this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's quite simple. The vortex retreats NE and allows more milder air to infiltrate the country. Fact, not opinion. However, as long as ridging exists near AK..even a little....it allows the door to be open for arctic invasions. It's also probably just a reshuffle going on as well. Patterns never hold constantly for weeks on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's quite simple. The vortex retreats NE and allows more milder air to infiltrate the country. Fact, not opinion. However, as long as ridging exists near AK..even a little....it allows the door to be open for arctic invasions. It's also probably just a reshuffle going on as well. Patterns never hold constantly for weeks on end. This is referring to the polar vortex, currently over Ontario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This is referring to the polar vortex, currently over Ontario? Yes it moves towards the Davis Straits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I read the same Don update, and then read his most recent post later in the thread. The problem is, is that Don's latest update seems to indicate a growing consensus for the EPO to go to neutral, and the warming the comes along with that. We are at an inflection point and the globals today and tonight will be critical. Personally, I think it gets dicey a bit but then within a few days we see signals of help on the Atlantic side. The latest post concerns part of the last week in December and right now it appears that the EPO could briefly go positive before heading back down. Hopefully, the EPO won't become predominantly positive and, at least for now, there's little evidence of that. SSTAs might argue against that bad outcome. Having said that, I still think the last week of December will wind up colder than normal for the most part in much of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Every LR forecast (patterns) should have an automatic disclaimer. What the latest models depict. It's always evolving. I certainly take all LR forecasts with a grain of salt and defer to those more knowledgeable who are in the profession. I would never question because the result of questioning only draws attention to self and as a hobbyist I will lose. If I had sound scientific reasoning that would be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The latest post concerns part of the last week in December and right now it appears that the EPO could briefly go positive before heading back down. Hopefully, the EPO won't become predominantly positive and, at least for now, there's little evidence of that. SSTAs might argue against that bad outcome. Having said that, I still think the last week of December will wind up colder than normal for the most part in much of New England. This news could possibly help my hair to grow back (and maybe Kevin's too). I hope I wasn't misquoting you. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Lots of arctic air to our north and northwest as modeled on the GFS when this wave comes up late weekend/early next week. The arctic air has generally been under estimated by the models. I'd like our chances of being on the cold side of that with ice or snow. Maybe from NYC on south they torch pretty bad though until that all gets through. I know DT has been spouting off on his FB site about ridiculously mild temps in the Mid Atlantic States.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Lots of arctic air to our north and northwest as modeled on the GFS when this wave comes up late weekend/early next week. The arctic air has generally been under estimated by the models. I'd like our chances of being on the cold side of that with ice or snow. Maybe from NYC on south they torch pretty bad though until that all gets through. I know DT has been spouting off on his FB site about ridiculously mild temps in the Mid Atlantic States.... Yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah Yeah, impossible for a warm up..impossible. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Lots of arctic air to our north and northwest as modeled on the GFS when this wave comes up late weekend/early next week. The arctic air has generally been under estimated by the models. I'd like our chances of being on the cold side of that with ice or snow. Maybe from NYC on south they torch pretty bad though until that all gets through. I know DT has been spouting off on his FB site about ridiculously mild temps in the Mid Atlantic States.... your area out near ALB and then up into C and NNE are certainly in a more favorable position to feel that cold pressing S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah, impossible for a warm up..impossible. Good post. Why do you do this? Don't have to feel like you have to respond to everyone of my posts. All i said was yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This news could possibly help my hair to grow back (and maybe Kevin's too). I hope I wasn't misquoting you. Thanks! No problem at all. I did see that the CFSv2 is ugly for January (consistent with a predominantly neutral EPO/positive AO), but fortunately nothing is cast in stone at this point (the model has little skill from this far out). As an example, it featured widespread CONUS warmth for December in its mid-November runs, and things have turned out a little differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The latest post concerns part of the last week in December and right now it appears that the EPO could briefly go positive before heading back down. Hopefully, the EPO won't become predominantly positive and, at least for now, there's little evidence of that. SSTAs might argue against that bad outcome. Having said that, I still think the last week of December will wind up colder than normal for the most part in much of New England. What we have is a period of time where the EPO pulses positive however at the same time the PNA also pulses positive thereby continuing an Arctic feed into the USA, as soon as the PNA relaxes the EPO heads back negative. I agree with your assessment, last week of Dec is colder than normal, probably stormy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Why do you do this? Don't have to feel like you have to respond to everyone of my posts. All i said was yeah I wish you would just not fight or ignore every post that doesn't fit your cold bias. We all take a lot of time out to put forth our thoughts. This weekend looks really tough for your snow pack fetish regardless of any older model runs. Hopefully we can get a follow up wave to the south, but not sure we are far enough north to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The CFS just was cold for January...lol. What a POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 I wish you would just not fight or ignore every post that doesn't fit your cold bias. We all take a lot of time out to put forth our thoughts. This weekend looks really tough for your snow pack fetish regardless of any older model runs. Hopefully we can get a follow up wave to the south, but not sure we are far enough north to cash in. I'm not ignoring anything. I don't think anything is a lock for this weekend. there's a 50/50 chance of it being mild and a 50/50 chance that the cold presses and the boundary is to our south by Saturday/Sunday. There is nothing pointing strongly either way. The fact is noone has any clue what's gojng to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Every LR forecast (patterns) should have an automatic disclaimer. What the latest models depict. It's always evolving. I certainly take all LR forecasts with a grain of salt and defer to those more knowledgeable who are in the profession. I would never question because the result of questioning only draws attention to self and as a hobbyist I will lose. If I had sound scientific reasoning that would be different. I strongly agree. The uncertainty and the magnitude of challenge for the long-range are very high. Whether one is looking at the Euro weeklies, CFSv2 weeklies, etc., Week 3-4 forecasts are often low-skill affairs, though forecasts are better than they were even five years ago. Hopefully, most understand that one is dealing with much greater uncertainty in the long-range and not placing a huge degree of weight on the long-term discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'm not ignoring anything. I don't think anything is a lock for this weekend. there's a 50/50 chance of it being mild and a 50/50 chance that the cold presses and the boundary is to our south by Saturday/Sunday. There is nothing pointing strongly either way. The fact is noone has any clue what's gojng to happen It's going to be mild to start for at least 24 hrs. I feel confident on that. Then the first front moves through. After that a second wave moves in...but that easily could be a 36F heavy rain. It's basically threading a needle with the second event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 They need to stop running the weekly CFSv2 every day. That does nothing, but cause chaos. Operationally, it's crap to have that run daily. At least the montly version uses an ensemble of previous data over the last 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 They need to stop running the weekly CFSv2 every day. That does nothing, but cause chaos. Operationally, it's crap to have that run daily. At least the montly version uses an ensemble of previous data over the last 30 days. the only thing i like about it is using the 10-day average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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