Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah that has an ugly look - been signaled for a little while too. We'll see it's still pretty far out there.I remember that same look very well when Cowboys played like Cowboys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Man would be nice if we could get the mids a shade lower, horrible time and day for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I remember that same look very well when Cowboys played like Cowboys. I miss that winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro continues the icy theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Had a squall come thru during my run. Covered up the rds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro continues the icy themeeuro op sucks for this weekend. ec ens are cooler, but I'm fearing the warm side of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Slaughter of the snow en route. I hope the reset doesn't become a prolonged period of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The pattern is weird in the extended. It could be stormy but we seem to lose some cold as the PV lifts out. Hopefully the ridging builds back in the Pacific. Certainly has been the trend anyways as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The pattern is weird in the extended. It could be stormy but we seem to lose some cold as the PV lifts out. Hopefully the ridging builds back in the Pacific. Certainly has been the trend anyways as of late. That's what I am concerned about. Canada deep cold seemed muted in the extended. We need that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 euro op sucks for this weekend. ec ens are cooler, but I'm fearing the warm side of the boundary. I'm thinking the ensembles are correct. Gotta lean cold this year.We all should be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 December 23-31, 2013 Thoughts: In terms of teleconnections, the ensembles continue to favor a predominant EPO-, AO+, PNA+ regime during the closing days of December. At the same time, a large area of cold continues to cover North America and there is little evidence that the cold will be driven from North America anytime soon. Consequently, areas adjacent to the cold will likely wind up colder than normal, as well, even if 500 mb pattern might be expected to have some warmth into those areas. Below are a number of charts showing the temperature anomalies associated with the forecast ENSO-teleconnections, teleconnections alone, GFS ensembles, and NAEFS. Continuity with the predominant pattern since November argues that the areas of warmth could be more limited than depicted on some of the above charts. There also remains a distinct possibility of an Arctic outbreak sometime during the 12/23-31 period with perhaps the coldest anomalies focused on the Plains States into central Canada. In terms of overall anomalies for the 12/23-31 period, my thoughts are as follows: Much of Canada: Colder than normal Northern and Central Plains: Colder than normal Great Lakes Region/Ohio Valley: Colder than normal Pacific Northwest: Near normal New England and the Middle Atlantic Region: Colder than normal Southeast/Gulf States: Warmer than normal Southern Plains (including Texas): Somewhat cooler than normal to near normal Desert Southwest: Warmer than normal Breathe Jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Breathe Jerry Lol... I didn't like this mornings look...maybe a burp...we'll see. I was also thinking.,,,did we start too early?......random thoughts in a weenie's far from spotless mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Lol... I didn't like this mornings look...maybe a burp...we'll see. I was also thinking.,,,did we start too early?......random thoughts in a weenie's far from spotless mind... We all go thru the worry. Yesterday Scooter was saying full steam ahead..full steam..now he's worried..Last week it was me. It was nice to see the Euro ens cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 We all go thru the worry. Yesterday Scooter was saying full steam ahead..full steam..now he's worried..Last week it was me. It was nice to see the Euro ens cold Stop inserting words in my mouth first of all. Secondly, ensembles were mild this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Breathe Jerry I read the same Don update, and then read his most recent post later in the thread. The problem is, is that Don's latest update seems to indicate a growing consensus for the EPO to go to neutral, and the warming the comes along with that. We are at an inflection point and the globals today and tonight will be critical. Personally, I think it gets dicey a bit but then within a few days we see signals of help on the Atlantic side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I read the same Don update, and then read the most recent post. The only problem is, is that Don's latest update seems to indicate a growing consensus for the EPO to go to neutral, and the warming the comes along with that. We are at an inflection point and the globals today and tonight will be critical. Personally, I think it gets dicey a bit but then within a few days we see signals of help on the Atlantic side. It will get more stormy and I do think it avgs near to below, but the EPO will flattern out and SE ridging increase a bit. So, more storms..but track wise may be close to us. That's all. It's only a speculation. The GEFS certainly are colder and I can't argue with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 pretty grinchy looking this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It will get more stormy and I do think it avgs near to below, but the EPO will flattern out and SE ridging increase a bit. So, more storms..but track wise may be close to us. That's all. It's only a speculation. The GEFS certainly are colder and I can't argue with that. Yes, but the word "disaster" is what greeted me this morning as I reviewed the pattern thread. I realize though that tropopauses's pain is sometimes my gain....and stormy sometimes means snowy in the real NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 pretty grinchy looking this am. Wipe the slate clean for some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yes, but the word "disaster" is what greeted me this morning as I reviewed the pattern thread. I realize though that tropopauses's pain is sometimes my gain....and stormy sometimes means snowy in the real NH. That was in response to this weekend, down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Stop inserting words in my mouth first of all. Secondly, ensembles were mild this weekend. Huh? You said full steam ahead with the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Huh? You said full steam ahead with the pattern You said I am worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wipe the slate clean for some? One day of 40's..meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Stop inserting words in my mouth first of all. Secondly, ensembles were mild this weekend.yeah...I tell him colder, but he takes it as meaning they're cold. I have to word things better so he can't spin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 pretty grinchy looking this am. Alas. On the plus side, my daughters are driving up from MD on Thursday and driving back on Sunday. So being free of wintry precip on both of those days is not a bad thing in that respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's funny. Before I ran I read the posts from last nights 00z runs and folks were giddy with cold and ice storm and like 12 hours of 40's. Not 3 hours later and its worry, torch and bare ground talk . Enough to make ones head spin. Let's see where the trends take us the next few days before getting too high or too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's funny. Before I ran I read the posts from last nights 00z runs and folks were giddy with cold and ice storm and like 12 hours of 40's. Not 3 hours later and its worry, torch and bare ground talk . Enough to make ones head spin. Let's see where the trends take us the next few days before getting too high or too low The ability to change ones mind when confronted with additional information is a sign of intelligence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 The ability to change ones mind when confronted with additional information is a sign of intelligence.But what changed so much in 4 hours? One op run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's funny. Before I ran I read the posts from last nights 00z runs and folks were giddy with cold and ice storm and like 12 hours of 40's. Not 3 hours later and its worry, torch and bare ground talk . Enough to make ones head spin. Let's see where the trends take us the next few days before getting too high or too low I do agree with this, but it is more my emotional reaction. Will be watching models today and tonight with great interest. Can't wait to finally see hints of surprises and hope begin to show on the atlantic side. I think we see those on LR soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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