CT Rain Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 GEFS want nothing of what the Euro is showing this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 GEFS want nothing of what the Euro is showing this weekend. Yeah the GFS/ens. want to hold all the energy out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Dendrite and ORH hills...but that doesn't mean others can't get in. I say "typical" spots because it's too far out to give specifics. This winter is on the verge of turning very special. Early cold, mute warmups, a solid snowstorm in mid December, an increasingly active ss, a -EPO that keeps returning, a great cold source in Canda, a warm up that looks brief and is capped by a snowpack sealing ice storm,...and followed by a cold stormy holiday week. I think the pattern is basically set for this winter, and given that we have had a -pna and a +ao/nao, it would seem we get a period of some blocking at some point and can score that way. I'm sure we will have a warm period at some point in January. I say we cap it off with a huge March noreaster that break the pattern and gives us an early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 This winter is on the verge of turning very special. Early cold, mute warmups, a solid snowstorm in mid December, an increasingly active ss, a -EPO that keeps returning, a great cold source in Canda, a warm up that looks brief and is capped by a snowpack sealing ice storm,...and followed by a cold stormy holiday week. I think the pattern is basically set for this winter, and given that we have had a -pna and a +ao/nao, it would seem we get a period of some blocking at some point and can score that way. I'm sure we will have a warm period at some point in January. I say we cap it off with a huge March noreaster that break the pattern and gives us an early spring.if we get any blocking this winter goes to another level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 if we get any blocking this winter goes to another level. these things sneak up on you...the baseline set by this winter is quite a good one, and the step down has been steady and uninterrupted. I think the table is set and the food is just going to keep getting better, course after course. The pattern we are in is pretty stable it seems...I prefer no huge triple phase type storms which could shift the pattern. But don't you think at some point we get some -NAO? I have heard the AO looks like it might go neg...that could bring down the nao. Just give us some mild blockin for a week or 2 with all that cold in Canada, a storm going into the block, a clipper in the middle and a storm going out. Otherwise, the pattern we are in now is working and will only get better as winter gets deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Nice disco from ALB about evolution end of week/weekend WHATEVER REPRIEVE THERE IS FROM THE PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILLBE BRIEF AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...AND LOWPRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND TRACKS UP TOWESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MIXED WINTRYPRECIPITATION MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH...AND PURESNOW TO THE NORTH. THE LOW WILL COMBINE FORCES WITH AN ALBERTA-TYPECLIPPER...PROLONGING THE WINTRY ACTIVITY WELL INTO SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Nice disco from Bismark about the evolution of week/weekend. THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAYNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAYNIGHT...AND OVER ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOST AREASFRIDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHTTHROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN SOME MODERATION OVER THE WEEKEND - BUTSTILL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Nice disco from ALB about evolution end of week/weekend WHATEVER REPRIEVE THERE IS FROM THE PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL BE BRIEF AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND TRACKS UP TO WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH...AND PURE SNOW TO THE NORTH. THE LOW WILL COMBINE FORCES WITH AN ALBERTA-TYPE CLIPPER...PROLONGING THE WINTRY ACTIVITY WELL INTO SUNDAY. That's very encouraging for Rick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Nice disco from Bismark about the evolution of week/weekend. THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND OVER ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOST AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN SOME MODERATION OVER THE WEEKEND - BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ALB doesn't forecast in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Nice disco from Bismark about the evolution of week/weekend. THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND OVER ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOST AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN SOME MODERATION OVER THE WEEKEND - BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 ALB doesn't forecast in SNE? They have a much higher chance of anything frozen. Picking their AFD isn't a good idea 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 ALB doesn't forecast in SNE? Actually, I pay as much attention to Albany's AFD as BOX's. This area's pretty much an "oh by the way, the eastern slope....". I don't think I've EVER seen them reference the VT border in an AFD, but the MA/NH border is referenced continually. Plus, I border two of Albany's zones--the same as I do BOX's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 They have a much higher chance of anything frozen. Picking their AFD isn't a good idea 7 days out. I was posting it because i thought it offered a good synopsis for our Litchfield Country and Berkshire County folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I was posting it because i thought it offered a good synopsis for our Litchfield Country and Berkshire County folks. clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Looking forward to my Christmas vacation in Massachusetts. I took a look at sea surface temperature anomalies. They're 4+ degrees (celsius) warmer than average off the New Jersey coast, but above the 40 degree latitude line it's 2 degrees below average. Is it abnormal to have these two extremes so close to one another? Do the long range/low resolution models take into account the much warmer sea temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'm encouraged by what BOX has for the upcoming weekend. Friday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Not as cool with highs in the lower 40s. Chance of rain 40 percent.Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and freezing rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 30 percent.Saturday Night: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Cooler with lows around 20.Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 They have a much higher chance of anything frozen. Picking their AFD isn't a good idea 7 days out. Actually, they sometimes warm up and turn to rain when the arctic air comes down from our NE and dams on our side of the mountain. Don't we sometimes do better in SWFE by holding onto cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Actually, they sometimes warm up and turn to rain when the arctic air comes down from our NE and dams on our side of the mountain. Don't we sometimes do better in SWFE by holding onto cold air? I mean this possible setup. NW will be colder than SE if you know what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS hmm what warmup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Gfs is drinking euro juice d7 and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Not sure if this is OT or not... but this GFS run pretty much doesn't have the big warm up at week's end... In fact, it barely crosses the 540mb thickness contour N of SNE before a smart fropa then lodges a significant polar high into eastern ON/NNE by a week from today. More like an insubstantial mild-up followed by more cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Gfs is drinking euro juice d7 and beyond.don't doubt the Cowboy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 moved it to Dec Disco, temps in the 40's for a 12 hrs? Yeah I eyeballed it wrong. Warmups getting crimped...... GGEM is a shellacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Not sure if this is OT or not... but this GFS run pretty much doesn't have the big warm up at week's end... In fact, it barely crosses the 540mb thickness contour N of SNE before a smart fropa then lodges a significant polar high into eastern ON/NNE by a week from today. More like an insubstantial mild-up followed by more cold. That would be a really nasty ice storm next Sunday/Monday - will have to watch for suppression depression, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The 23rd went from a torchy rain to a Leontine event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That would be a really nasty ice storm next Sunday/Monday - will have to watch for suppression depression, however. Yeah I stopped my self short of going that far, but I see it -- check out the 12z GGEM from earlier in the day and then test generators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The 23rd went from a torchy rain to a Leontine event.Classically so. Holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The 23rd went from a torchy rain to a Leontine event. This happens all the time in the great winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That would be a really nasty ice storm next Sunday/Monday - will have to watch for suppression depression, however. Long duration ice storm, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Long duration ice storm, too... Yeah that has an ugly look - been signaled for a little while too. We'll see it's still pretty far out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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