Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Overrunning city on the Euro next weekend. Taken right out of Leon Lett's playbook. That would be cold with snow and ice. LOL..waita minute..Did we entirely lose the mild up?Like maybe only Friday is like 35-40? The big fat man with the long white beard might sled after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Euro verifies and we have the deepest 12/25 AM pack since 1995 i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 LOL..waita minute..Did we entirely lose the mild up?Like maybe only Friday is like 35-40? The big fat man with the long white beard might sled after all Friday was still mild, prob in the mid 40s...but it quickly cools back on Saturday with the cold front pushing south and then a wave rides along the front to our south. Hopefully that is how it plays out....still a long ways to go and I'm concenred that wave could end up west of us...but today's run was encouraging at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Man go euro op...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Friday was still mild, prob in the mid 40s...but it quickly cools back on Saturday with the cold front pushing south and then a wave rides along the front to our south. Hopefully that is how it plays out....still a long ways to go and I'm concenred that wave could end up west of us...but today's run was encouraging at least. Gfs had a similar evolution. I'm thrilled because my wife and i will be near the border of southern vt/nh for the weekend. Showery drive up during the day friday followed by a snowy weekend and dicey ride home sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Let's see if we can even cool Friday some. Maybe we start the day below 32 then clouds come in with dry fropa and it's snowing/ ice by Saturday pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 IMHO it looks like Cohen will have his answer on which of the conflicting signal mattered most this winter. It's extent of snow cover that trumped the advance (can only advance so much when it's extensive). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 IMHO it looks like Cohen will have his answer on which of the conflicting signal mattered most this winter. It's extent of snow cover that trumped the advance (can only advance so much when it's extensive). Cohen and the other fellow (Riccardo ) look to have knock'd their +AO out of park. They werent predicting much else. So far we luck'd out w EPO and occasional +(or rising) pnA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Gfs had a similar evolution. I'm thrilled because my wife and i will be near the border of southern vt/nh for the weekend. Showery drive up during the day friday followed by a snowy weekend and dicey ride home sunday? Where in VT, Jerry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 We've had a +AO for months so knowing that...it's probably not a difficult forecast knowing the features at play/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Euro verifies and we have the deepest 12/25 AM pack since 1995 i think. It's always great having the pack in early. While it's tough to keep a favorable patter the entire season, it really stinks to be struggling into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Cohen and the other fellow (Riccardo ) look to have knock'd their +AO out of park. They werent predicting much else. So far we luck'd out w EPO and occasional +(or rising) pnA He was pretty explicit on channel 5 and elsewhere about the early winter turning mid month with a dramatic warmup by the holidays and a milder than normal winter after that. Admittedly he said there was a conflict with the indexes that pointed in totally different directions and went with the sai. The other one (snow cover) was a cold and snowy indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Gfs had a similar evolution. I'm thrilled because my wife and i will be near the border of southern vt/nh for the weekend. Showery drive up during the day friday followed by a snowy weekend and dicey ride home sunday? Where in VT, Jerry? We'll be staying in chestefield nh near Brattleboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Euro ensembles are still warmer than the op for the day 8 thing. Probably ice in the typical spots as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Cohen has a track record. Ricardo not sure. But spiking the +ao on 12/15 for the winter is dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Could be a stormy last week of December. Big ridge out west with disturbances diving SE and what looks like lows south of New England on the ensemble means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Cohen has a track record. Ricardo not sure. But spiking the +ao on 12/15 for the winter is dangerous. Im pretty sure the OPI has a better track record. It has me confident in +AO being dominant thru feb, and that is sayin alot for me bc i did not think teleconnectors could be predicted w confidence so far out. March maybe different but ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Euro ensembles are still warmer than the op for the day 8 thing. Probably ice in the typical spots as modeled.Day 8? Isn't the overrunning starting next Sat after front comes thru? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Could be a stormy last week of December. Big ridge out west with disturbances diving SE and what looks like lows south of New England on the ensemble means.That's a great look and Canada is the Arctic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Day 8? Isn't the overrunning starting next Sat after front comes thru? They are warmer than the op for that is what I mean. Day 8-9 etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Cohen has a track record. Ricardo not sure. But spiking the +ao on 12/15 for the winter is dangerous. Im pretty sure the OPI has a better track record. It has me confident in +AO being dominant thru feb, and that is sayin alot for me bc i did not think teleconnectors could be predicted w confidence so far out. March maybe different but ... Ok fine. But to be fair our locals predicted the same thing. What intrigues me is how we can be on such a favorable pattern. All hail epo and thankfully guidance isn't changing it. That's what killed us 2 years ago despite some great AO periods with the pv going to the wrong side of the hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 First negative numbers of the season Tuesday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Sorry Kevin, day 7 I meant. Probably would be ice in the interior..esp north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Euro ensembles are still warmer than the op for the day 8 thing. Probably ice in the typical spots as modeled. Typical as in Dendrite or typical as in east slopes and worcester hills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 First negative numbers of the season Tuesday morning? With clouds and snow starting by dawn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 With clouds and snow starting by dawn? Clouds prob don't move in until 3-4am. There will be a lot of time to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Typical as in Dendrite or typical as in east slopes and worcester hills? Dendrite and ORH hills...but that doesn't mean others can't get in. I say "typical" spots because it's too far out to give specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 With clouds and snow starting by dawn?Think it can happen early AM as you run. If not then low single digits. Deep deep winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Think it can happen early AM as you run. If not then low single digits. Deep deep winter.Just need to keep trending front faster and even less mild Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Just need to keep trending front faster and even less mild Fri You may have made a good call on Tuesday, Kevin. That said, it was a call that still is going to provde little to write home about--lest we get a NW trend a la yesterday. We'll see how it evolves over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.