CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 We could have a few days next week of "cheap cold"....the sfc high kind of noses down but mid-level temps are warm. I could envision a night or two where the rad spots are way colder than you'd think just looking at an 850 temp map. And even if we get onshore flow from that pseudo-coastal with 850 temps of +4, we could see highs in the 30s with rain. Avg temps are still in the 40s the first week of December...even at ORH (well the first 5 days anyway)...so that's how I could see us being slightly colder than first glance at upper levels. Yeah it's def a cheap cold look at the low levels. I think otherwise it may be boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 At least there are no signs of the dateline ridge weakening...none. I've seen rumors it might try to retro during mid month which would be bad...but for now, she's not going anywhere. So, it's a matter of how deep the troughs out west are and how much oozes east. We are near the battle zone and stakes are high...just remember that so you won't be disappointed, but I think we are going to have some fun too. The euro wants to bring the MJO into warmer phases which will enhance the gradient more and perhaps..perhaps make it more hostile week 2 or so? It also could remain weak and circle around which would not do much. The weeklies bring it around again into more favorable phases after mid month. 2007 and 2008 had more hostile phases too and we got buried so it;s not always bad for SNE..just makes it more interesting I guess..lol. Wheeeeeee. For now, weenies crossed...deep down I think we are ok as long as you don't expect 30" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Any cheap ll cold next week will be welcomed. We don't need days in the 40's and 50's in winter. As long as folks keep in back of minds that next week may not be all that mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Any cheap ll cold next week will be welcomed. We don't need days in the 40's and 50's in winter. As long as folks keep in back of minds that next week may not be all that mild I could see Thursday and Friday as 40s-50 and also..cheap cold means avg highs which are in the 40s. Maybe Monday is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Just when things were looking good for december now its looking ugly with the AO rising like crazy and the pna being negative. Plus the MJO is now also giving us trouble for any persistent cold weather and snow in the eastern US and eastern canada where I am from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Just when things were looking good for december now its looking ugly with the AO rising like crazy and the pna being negative. Plus the MJO is now also giving us trouble for any persistent cold weather and snow in the eastern US and eastern canada where I am from. Sounds like you haven't read a thing about the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Just when things were looking good for december now its looking ugly with the AO rising like crazy and the pna being negative. Plus the MJO is now also giving us trouble for any persistent cold weather and snow in the eastern US and eastern canada where I am from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Sounds like you haven't read a thing about the pattern. I see what you guys are saying now after reading more. I just don't like these up and down temperatures wish it would just stay cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I see what you guys are saying now after reading more. I just don't like these up and down temperatures wish it would just stay cold. You might want to move to Hudson bay then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Looking at longer range Ensembles, it looks like the gradient will likely be right around the New England area for the first half of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I don't see it as boring at all... But to each his own... As I was describing earlier, the later middle range period has some markers for freezing/frozen... In fact, the 12z Euro, although it is not very deterministic given to the D7 time range, this particular Dec 2/3 system has been flagged for many cycles, and I suspect if these synoptic features are arranged this way, this event trends colder in future guidance (high up N notwithstanding...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Euro verbatim has Tip's ice storm next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Euro verbatim has Tip's ice storm next week It's actually a cold rainstorm verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 It's actually a cold rainstorm verbatim. Yup looks like we could get what central New York will be getting later today . 34f rain storm. Riveting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 The day 10 EURO map is going to look much better. At 216 almost looks like we are trying to get a block to form. There's going to be a warm up as that cold air dumps into the west, but 12z EURO is showing some light at end of tunnel by sending the cold east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Euro verbatim has Tip's ice storm next week Well, "verbatim" ? No.... But I think what you mean is, it's trending toward a possibility, there in... Actually, could be a day of mix snitzle the day before a more organized coastal gets going as a possible correction, too. Still less determinism here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Ha, just saw the D8 panel... man that sucker goes nuts! heh, we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 The day 10 EURO map is going to look much better. At 216 almost looks like we are trying to get a block to form. was just saying that to someone in my office. I don't think those panels depict the impact of the 50/50 correctly. That huge low in the middle of canada seems to be culprit. if later guidence can ease up on that feature, then maybe we can get some cold air to work with. There are surface low reflections all over the base of the trough out west, so there will be action. I kind of like the look for early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Boring in the sense that it's not a wintry week. Maybe that euro op will verify, but not a high confidence thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 You might want to move to Hudson bay then. Just normal temperatures would be good to a bit below normal but not below temperatures to above normal temperatures. I remember winters around here in my area anyways snow stayed on the ground we didn't have rain in late november and certainly very little in december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 ensembles have next week as relatively mild. thereafter quite chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Somewhat of a cold bust on-going in the interior, and now p-type tries to do a brief period of snow along Rt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 ensembles have next week as relatively mild. thereafter quite chilly. They look great after the relaxation period Dec 3-6. That post Dec 6th look is pretty awesome. Lets hope it sticks around. We'd probably have multiple events to track in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Pit stop in white plains and car thermo reading 37. Liking the long range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Ha, just saw the D8 panel... man that sucker goes nuts! heh, we'll see... Euro Day 10 shows a flat jet across the which is the most uncertain pattern you can have. Where the ridges and troffs will form is almost impossible to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Last week of November looks cold, but after DEC 2nd looks like a good warm up is possible. However my questions reside in the potential clipper system around November 30th and December 1st. What is more likely, a more amplified solution in the future, or a more flat solution? NAM is amplifying this clipper ever so slightly in previous runs. SOmething to just keep an eye out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Euro weeklies have a nice SE ridge setting up/+NAO mid to late December. Hope that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Euro weeklies have a nice SE ridge setting up/+NAO mid to late December. Hope that trend continues. Isn't that bad for snow? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Isn't that bad for snow? LolDon't you get it? He doesn't like cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2013 Author Share Posted November 26, 2013 Isn't that bad for snow? LolHe's trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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