ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 No no..where the models kept trying to roast us long range and it just kept snowing and snowing and cold cold ciold '01-'02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 '01-'02. '01-02 was torchy and snowless except for 12/8 and a few March events. '02-03 was belly to belly cold & snow starting the day before Turkey Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 What in the sam hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I think the storm is the name of the game. Big miller B storm coming along on the models for a Saturday into Sunday event. BOX seems to agree to the possibility. I saw a 1.50 QPF on the latest GFS in 6hrs. Not bad, not bad at all (as long as we stay snow). THEN THIS WEEKEND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EXITING THE GULF STATES AND TRACKING NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLC LATE SAT. COLD AIRMASS LINGERS OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT WHICH WILL SUPPORT PTYPE ISSUES FOR THE REGION. BY 12Z SUNDAY BOTH THE 00Z GEFS AND 12Z ECENS SUPPORT A COASTAL HUGGER WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT THIS EARLY STAGE THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING PVD/BOS CORRIDOR. HOWEVER IF THIS STORM TRACK VERIFIES SHALLOW COLD AIR WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THUS THERE IS A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF A WINTRY MIX WELL INLAND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL 4-5 DAYS AWAY SO ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS. NONETHELESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND EXISTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 seems like everyday the euro has had bitter cold in that 150-168 hr mark. today might take the cake with the 2-m's at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 seems like everyday the euro has had bitter cold in that 150-168 hr mark. today might take the cake with the 2-m's at 168. How cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 man...closer inspection. what is with the euro temps of late?? ryan brought this up the other day. the 2-m temp on the euro at ORH tonight is -13.5C! (like 8F). MOS is nowhere near that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 How cold? like widespread -5 to -15F. it's dumb. it's even ridiculously cold friday night. it has ORH at -20C (so like -4F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 BOX seems to agree to the possibility. I saw a 1.50 QPF on the latest GFS in 6hrs. Not bad, not bad at all (as long as we stay snow). THEN THIS WEEKEND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EXITING THE GULF STATES AND TRACKING NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLC LATE SAT. COLD AIRMASS LINGERS OVER NEW ENGLAND SAT WHICH WILL SUPPORT PTYPE ISSUES FOR THE REGION. BY 12Z SUNDAY BOTH THE 00Z GEFS AND 12Z ECENS SUPPORT A COASTAL HUGGER WITH LOW PRES TRACKING ALONG OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT THIS EARLY STAGE THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN INCLUDING PVD/BOS CORRIDOR. HOWEVER IF THIS STORM TRACK VERIFIES SHALLOW COLD AIR WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THUS THERE IS A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF A WINTRY MIX WELL INLAND...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF QPF. NEVERTHELESS THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL 4-5 DAYS AWAY SO ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS. NONETHELESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND EXISTS. Looks like Ski Trip Planned up North. It can rain on someone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 We'll have to watch 12/18 for a potential event as this date is starting to gain some traction on guidance. It looks like a clipper system with potential to redevelop south of LI or off Delmarva if it digs. Some guidance keeps it a fairly weak clipper and others are trying to make it a little bigger...but something to watch. My birthday. I'll try my best to make something happen then. Seems like most guidance wants to at least briefly warm us going past that date for our annual Christmas thaw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 ORH. this is impressive! MOS: WED 11| THU 12| FRI 13| SAT 14| SUN 15| MON 16| TUE 17|WED CLIMO N/X 16 26| 12 20| 12 27| 12 21| 16 28| 13 21| 10 26| 19 21 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Euro and GEFS want to setup overrunning big time before Christmas, on these 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Do we avert the furnace pre hollys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Wow, Euro ens went way colder for the 12/23-12/25 period. We'll have to see if that sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Wow, Euro ens went way colder for the 12/23-12/25 period. We'll have to see if that sticks. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Do we avert the furnace pre hollys? it moderates a bit around the 21st or so...but then back into the freezer, verbatim, on the holiday. canadians are having one epic stretch of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Wow, Euro ens went way colder for the 12/23-12/25 period. We'll have to see if that sticks. that's pretty strong signal even with respect to climo being much colder by the second half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 After the events that unfolded today with the snow, the bomb over the weekend, another one on the 18th and deep cold thru the hollys.. There should not be one poster that has any clothes on right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 that's pretty strong signal even with respect to climo being much colder by the second half of the month. Yeah I was susprised to see that today. That pretty much locks in December as solidly below average if that verifies. Still a long ways out though. This is more precarious, but there's a chance we stay on the cold side of the boundary too around 12/21 if things break right. But I could see a cutter too in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 What winter was that? Wasn't it like 02-03 where that happened? It was probably 02-03. I think Will once mentioned that 02-03 had one of the strongest +PNAs on record to counteract a generally crappy Atlantic pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 We'll have to watch 12/18 for a potential event as this date is starting to gain some traction on guidance. It looks like a clipper system with potential to redevelop south of LI or off Delmarva if it digs. Some guidance keeps it a fairly weak clipper and others are trying to make it a little bigger...but something to watch. Would this be a mutually exclusive event with the Saturday/Sunday event? Is it possible we get nailed by the weekend event and the event itself doesn't dislodge the 18th so we can get hit again? I'll go ahead and bun myself but I'm curious and I have been too busy to look at any of the free model sites this week. Also I'll be overseas for the weekend so although I will be rooting for a snow-bomb I'd love to get in on the action later in next week. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 After the events that unfolded today with the snow, the bomb over the weekend, another one on the 18th and deep cold thru the hollys.. There should not be one poster that has any clothes on right now Mine are on but that's because it's cold in my office...lol. Epic period just beginning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 After the events that unfolded today with the snow, the bomb over the weekend, another one on the 18th and deep cold thru the hollys.. There should not be one poster that has any clothes on right now After the events that unfolded today with the snow, the bomb over the weekend, another one on the 18th and deep cold thru the hollys.. There should not be one poster that has any clothes on right now naked in London....arriving home Friday evening to bitter cold and hopefully an impending snowstorm....the first widespread major New England storm of the season, right on schedule for mid December. Bye bye green grass...see you in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Mine are on but that's because it's cold in my office...lol. Epic period just beginning! Mine are on but that's because it's cold in my office...lol. Epic period just beginning! you've been all over this grandweenie pattern recognition + gut feeling ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Models are collapsing the SE ridge as trough moves east allowing the Polar Vortex fragment disturbance to move further southeast than currently modeled by the GFS and EURO. 700mb low needs to come further southeast for us to get a more prolific snow and not worry about precip type issues here in coastal SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Damage In Tolland, on 10 Dec 2013 - 3:43 PM, said: After the events that unfolded today with the snow, the bomb over the weekend, another one on the 18th and deep cold thru the hollys.. There should not be one poster that has any clothes on right now I thought I was the only one sitting here naked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Have to violently disagree with Phil on the Euro ENS failures at 11_15. We have yet to see any of the furnace 2-3 day periods it advertised since Nov 2. I came to this conclusion myself not based on any reading skills but through watching them daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The euro ensembles never really showed a prolonged furnace period. Maybe for a run or two, but so did the GEFS. They did show the potential relaxation which happened last week...but we have yet to see about before Christmas. That still could happen. They may have been too aggressive with a relaxation, but never showed a prolonged furnace.+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The euro ensembles never really showed a prolonged furnace period. Maybe for a run or two, but so did the GEFS. They did show the potential relaxation which happened last week...but we have yet to see about before Christmas. That still could happen. They may have been too aggressive with a relaxation, but never showed a prolonged furnace.+Well I agree after reviewing, it was a couple of posters opinions that implied that not the actual Ens runs. Apparently they were using the word furnace liberally. I will save you and not bump the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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