December Pattern Disco- 2013

[CoastalWx]

That is boys crying for their mama cold in the plains. Even if we got a cutter, the colds behind it will lay the foundation down for the next one. Pretty good cold shot the weekend too.

[Damage In Tolland]

00z run trended back warmer...but its still one to keep an eye on. But I wouldn't expect anything out of it right now. Dec 2-6 is going to be the mildest period most likely of the next 10-12 days after tomorrow./

Wouldn't one expect that cold high in Quebec next week to ooze south and help at least keep the chance of frozen precip in play?

[ORH_wxman]

Wouldn't one expect that cold high in Quebec next week to ooze south and help at least keep the chance of frozen precip in play?

 

 

Sure, but its not very cold up there during that time period, so the airmass is a bit stale. Its probably mostly rain next week after whatever light snow we get on Sunday. The real cold is to the west.

[CoastalWx]

I think the overall look remains good. Don't put a gun to my head if it doesn't work out, but this pattern has produced before as evident by Will's graphics. 

[toronto blizzard]

I think the overall look remains good. Don't put a gun to my head if it doesn't work out, but this pattern has produced before as evident by Will's graphics.

The EC ensembles looked fine by me. Hope we all get something.

[CoastalWx]

The EC ensembles looked fine by me. Hope we all get something.

 

Of course they did.

 

I think it will be ok..but people can't get mad if it's not all snow. We live around 42N not 62N.

[CoastalWx]

Beyond mid December may get tricky. If the pattern does try to shift around and retro a bit like the weeklies show, it may get mild...but that's way out there. Lets hope the MJO stays weak as it tries to move into phases that try to warm the east. 

[toronto blizzard]

Beyond mid December may get tricky. If the pattern does try to shift around and retro a bit like the weeklies show, it may get mild...but that's way out there. Lets hope the MJO stays weak as it tries to move into phases that try to warm the east.

At least Canada stays cold.

[Tropopause_Fold]

interesting set-up in the long range. definitely walking a line as modeled with that massive cold dump going down into the western part of the nation and spreading out across Canada. we'll have to see how that evolves. but it's enticing.

 

if you compare the euro ec height anomaly fields in the 11-15 day period with the middle of december 07...you could argue the modeled set-up is a little bit better as the ridge axis is displaced further east on the ensembles / likewise the heart of the cold is centered a bit further east and certainly way deeper.

 

in a way, the euro ens in the long range are actually a nice blend of the good stuff of 07 + 08.

 

we'll see where it goes and how the pna wants to develop. obviously if the height fields down S want to flex too much, it'll be lows running into the GL while the plains turn into the arctic.  

[Neblizzard]

The lack of a -NAO kinda worries me as we go into the extended period. There is absolutely no hint of one on any of the guidance, so any pattern that produces looks to be strictly Pacific Driven.

[Tropopause_Fold]

The lack of a -NAO kinda worries me as we go into the extended period. There is absolutely no hint of one on any of the guidance, so any pattern that produces looks to be strictly Pacific Driven.

there is some really weak ridging that noses into greenland off and on in the extended but yeah those are certainly very low heights over DS.

 

doesn't necessarily matter though. especially as we move forward on the calendar past the first full week of december. i think as will and scott were mentioning earlier...if you spread out the kind of cold that is modeled across Canada, it's pretty likely some of that drains into the GL and NE...and that's real deal, dense cold. so while the overall pattern might want to favor a low running inland...could easily see stuff "scooter" out south of new england or redevelop and pass near CC etc.

 

you just don't want some big wound-up monster. even lighter waves coming out of the south would probably be working on a nice tight baroclinic axis and be good precip-producers (plus, origins in the southern half of the U.S.)

[ORH_wxman]

there is some really weak ridging that noses into greenland off and on in the extended but yeah those are certainly very low heights over DS.

 

doesn't necessarily matter though. especially as we move forward on the calendar past the first full week of december. i think as will and scott were mentioning earlier...if you spread out the kind of cold that is modeled across Canada, it's pretty likely some of that drains into the GL and NE...and that's real deal, dense cold. so while the overall pattern might want to favor a low running inland...could easily see stuff "scooter" out south of new england or redevelop and pass near CC etc.

 

you just don't want some big wound-up monster. even lighter waves coming out of the south would probably be working on a nice tight baroclinic axis and be good precip-producers (plus, origins in the southern half of the U.S.)

 

 

Yeah, this.

 

Weaker waves are what we like. If we have to deal with more of a wound up low, we'd want to see a big high pressure up in Quebec that can fight it off long enough for a big winter impact...ala December 16, 2007. But you'd certainly take your chances with fast moving waves moving out of the Oh valley with dense cold oozing down over New England...that is usually how we clean up in the SWFE gradient pattern.

 

We'll be walking the line and people should remember that.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah, this.

 

Weaker waves are what we like. If we have to deal with more of a wound up low, we'd want to see a big high pressure up in Quebec that can fight it off long enough for a big winter impact...ala December 16, 2007. But you'd certainly take your chances with fast moving waves moving out of the Oh valley with dense cold oozing down over New England...that is usually how we clean up in the SWFE gradient pattern.

 

We'll be walking the line and people should remember that.

that event is a really good example of how this modeled set-up down-the-road *can* go beyond expectations even in what appear to be marginally crappy set-ups.

 

i know for me, that looked like almost a guaranteed C-2" in my neck of the woods followed by heavy rain...and instead we pulled 3-5" out of it. the antecedent airmass was so cold that the intense WAA just produced a wall of heavy precip and was able to produce some really good bonus snows, despite the mid-level energy closing off so far west of SNE. 

 

what i'd like to see going forward, is the same sort of pattern, but instead of seeing the mid-levels close over the OV and lift into Lake Erie, have it pass through the mid-atlantic. 

[ORH_wxman]

that event is a really good example of how this modeled set-up down-the-road *can* go beyond expectations even in what appear to be marginally crappy set-ups.

 

i know for me, that looked like almost a guaranteed C-2" in my neck of the woods followed by heavy rain...and instead we pulled 3-5" out of it. the antecedent airmass was so cold that the intense WAA just produced a wall of heavy precip and was able to produce some really good bonus snows, despite the mid-level energy closing off so far west of SNE. 

 

what i'd like to see going forward, is the same sort of pattern, but instead of seeing the mid-levels close over the OV and lift into Lake Erie, have it pass through the mid-atlantic. 

 

 

Still one of my favorite busts...I think I forecasted 3-6" that night about 3 hours before the snow moved in. We ended up with 8-9" and then a bit of ZR. Temp never hit freezing when it looked like we could hit low 40s.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gotta love the IP in ALB/SYR while its SN at PVD to HYA.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Still one of my favorite busts...I think I forecasted 3-6" that night about 3 hours before the snow moved in. We ended up with 8-9" and then a bit of ZR. Temp never hit freezing when it looked like we could hit low 40s.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gotta love the IP in ALB/SYR while its SN at PVD to HYA.

i just remember sleeping in a bit and then hearing the rumble of a plow...and that ah-crap-that-doesn't-sound-right feeling. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yeah, this.

 

Weaker waves are what we like. If we have to deal with more of a wound up low, we'd want to see a big high pressure up in Quebec that can fight it off long enough for a big winter impact...ala December 16, 2007. But you'd certainly take your chances with fast moving waves moving out of the Oh valley with dense cold oozing down over New England...that is usually how we clean up in the SWFE gradient pattern.

 

We'll be walking the line and people should remember that.

 

there seems to be a tendency over the past several years for lows to amp up, though. it seems like every potential storm on the EC is always stronger or more wound up then modeled.  the upcoming system a perfect example. of course we like the outcome when we are blocked up north.....KU after KU. but I cant recall a wave in the past 5 years producing like it did in the '80s, '90s and early '00s.

[Tropopause_Fold]

actually if you loop the 12z GFS in la-la land you can get a general sense of how this *could* shake out. multiple lows ejecting out of the southern miss river valley region and lifting NE into the OV / Mid-Atlantic / NE. 

[ORH_wxman]

there seems to be a tendency over the past several years for lows to amp up, though. it seems like every potential storm on the EC is always stronger or more wound up then modeled.  the upcoming system a perfect example. of course we like the outcome when we are blocked up north.....KU after KU. but I cant recall a wave in the past 5 years producing like it did in the '80s, '90s and early '00s.

 

 

The past 5 years have featured a predominately -NAO which is conductive for slowing the flow down and producing bombing lows. We are not in that type of pattern, despite getting a cutter tonight. Cutters happen easily in +NAO...but you frequently also see fast moving waves from W to E along the gradient which is what we will be looking for when we set up the temp gradient in the upcoming pattern.

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems like maybe next week could shake out a bit colder and wintrier if we get these weak lows running out south of us. Use caution for milding up too much

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The past 5 years have featured a predominately -NAO which is conductive for slowing the flow down and producing bombing lows. We are not in that type of pattern, despite getting a cutter tonight. Cutters happen easily in +NAO...but you frequently also see fast moving waves from W to E along the gradient which is what we will be looking for when we set up the temp gradient in the upcoming pattern.

 

thanks, understand your points.

 

i guess when i look back at the NYC KU of Feb 2006, with no block, i think to myself that wouldnt of happened in 1980 lol. this prob should be in the climate forum though, because my thoughts are coming from more of a global warming or global extreme weather aspect, whatever you want to call it. 

 

I grew up in CNJ. during the 80s and 90s, we always seem to be in the tight gradient zone with systems. lots of mixed precip events. now, its rain or snow there. it seems like the zone has nudged north. but I know 30years is a small sample size of weather.. its just my amateur obs. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Well ...all that, and, the GEF's -derived tele's for me signal a possible icy scenario at some point during the late middle and extended range(s).

 

Hugely depressed EPO with operational run-exemplified, giant ridge node near 140W/70N, is going to dump a very weighty hydrostatic air mass N of the border, and that will tend to undercut the mid levels near 40 N in the means.  Meanwhile, even the Euro has a positively tilted trough with heights lower in the SW, and a flat ridge in the SE U.S. Whether actually depicted or not, that type of large scale construct is a bit dicey...  Over flopping flows could very well ride over wedges of error-modeled, polar high.  

 

Looking at CDC, deep EPO ... lower than -2SD right out to the end of week two.  In tandem, the NAO has a slow rise.   Without even plotting in a specific event/feature(s) it is not tough to imagine quite the continental cold exertion from the N, while heights fight to rise in the E.   Difficult to do that without overrunning.  We'll see.   

[Damage In Tolland]

Well ...all that, and, the GEF's -derived tele's for me signal a possible icy scenario at some point during the late middle and extended range(s).

 

Hugely depressed EPO with operational run-exemplified, giant ridge node near 140W/70N, is going to dump a very weighty hydrostatic air mass N of the border, and that will tend to undercut the mid levels near 40 N in the means.  Meanwhile, even the Euro has a positively tilted trough with heights lower in the SW, and a flat ridge in the SE U.S. Whether actually depicted or not, that type of large scale construct is a bit dicey...  Over flopping flows could very well ridge over wedges of error-modeled, polar high.  

 

Looking at CDC, deep EPO ... lower than -2SD right out to the end of week two.  In tandem, the NAO has a slow rise.   Without even plotting in a specific event/feature(s) it is not tough to imagine quite the continental cold exertion from the N, while heights fight to rise in the E.   Difficult to do that without overrunning.  We'll see.   

Man, you've been calling for icestorms each week  since late September. Hopefully your're right . Let's lay some ice down.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Seems like maybe next week could shake out a bit colder and wintrier if we get these weak lows running out south of us. Use caution for milding up too much

know you don't care what i think but imho, feel like the period after next week is the better time to watch. pretty strong consensus for a -pna to get established through next week, which initially means a big cold dump south out west and not much initially lurking to our north after sun/mon. there's pretty good consensus for height rises along the eastern seaboard through at least the middle part of next week. after that, maybe we start to see the cold ooze back south...but if i was betting, it would be after the 6th or so. unless we get some sneaky wave going out south of us and keeping us cheaply cold at the surface with some weak N flow or something.

[Damage In Tolland]

know you don't care what i think but imho, feel like the period after next week is the better time to watch. pretty strong consensus for a -pna to get established through next week, which initially means a big cold dump south out west and not much initially lurking to our north after sun/mon. there's pretty good consensus for height rises along the eastern seaboard through at least the middle part of next week. after that, maybe we start to see the cold ooze back south...but if i was betting, it would be after the 6th or so. unless we get some sneaky wave going out south of us and keeping us cheaply cold at the surface with some weak N flow or something.

LOL..I do care what you think. In  fact, I kind of love you. Anyone that is a runner is ok in my book

Yeah that's kind of what I meant ..I'm kind of thinking maybe the cold presses a bit more from S Canada next week and maybe forces that wave mid week a bit farther south..sort of like the 12z Euro Ens did yesterday. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

know you don't care what i think but imho, feel like the period after next week is the better time to watch. pretty strong consensus for a -pna to get established through next week, which initially means a big cold dump south out west and not much initially lurking to our north after sun/mon. there's pretty good consensus for height rises along the eastern seaboard through at least the middle part of next week. after that, maybe we start to see the cold ooze back south...but if i was betting, it would be after the 6th or so. unless we get some sneaky wave going out south of us and keeping us cheaply cold at the surface with some weak N flow or something.

 

I agree with your assessment.  I like the look of the pattern with impulses riding along Arctic boundary basically W-E. 

[nzucker]

thanks, understand your points.

i guess when i look back at the NYC KU of Feb 2006, with no block, i think to myself that wouldnt of happened in 1980 lol. this prob should be in the climate forum though, because my thoughts are coming from more of a global warming or global extreme weather aspect, whatever you want to call it.

I grew up in CNJ. during the 80s and 90s, we always seem to be in the tight gradient zone with systems. lots of mixed precip events. now, its rain or snow there. it seems like the zone has nudged north. but I know 30years is a small sample size of weather.. its just my amateur obs.

There's been plenty of mixed events around NYC like 12/19/08, 1/28/09, and 2/2/11. Those were all SW flow events that started as snow but mixed for many. Overall the rain/snow line might be further north than 30 years ago but that doesn't mean we can't have mixed precipitation events.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Will be nice to have a pattern with chances for moderate events. Not a KU or bust pattern

[CoastalWx]

LOL..I do care what you think. In  fact, I kind of love you. Anyone that is a runner is ok in my book

Yeah that's kind of what I meant ..I'm kind of thinking maybe the cold presses a bit more from S Canada next week and maybe forces that wave mid week a bit farther south..sort of like the 12z Euro Ens did yesterday. 

 

Next week has boot leg low level stuff, but still mild I think. In fact, I think we can write it off to be honest. Maybe a little light snow or mix Sunday or Monday, but after that next week is toast I think. I feel pretty good in saying that. Strong -PNA will force milder weather despite high nosing in from north. Airmass aloft warms significantly.

[ORH_wxman]

know you don't care what i think but imho, feel like the period after next week is the better time to watch. pretty strong consensus for a -pna to get established through next week, which initially means a big cold dump south out west and not much initially lurking to our north after sun/mon. there's pretty good consensus for height rises along the eastern seaboard through at least the middle part of next week. after that, maybe we start to see the cold ooze back south...but if i was betting, it would be after the 6th or so. unless we get some sneaky wave going out south of us and keeping us cheaply cold at the surface with some weak N flow or something.

 

 

We could have a few days next week of "cheap cold"....the sfc high kind of noses down but mid-level temps are warm. I could envision a night or two where the rad spots are way colder than you'd think just looking at an 850 temp map. And even if we get onshore flow from that pseudo-coastal with 850 temps of +4, we could see highs in the 30s with rain. Avg temps are still in the 40s the first week of December...even at ORH (well the first 5 days anyway)...so that's how I could see us being slightly colder than first glance at upper levels.

[Typhoon Tip]

Man, you've been calling for icestorms each week  since late September. Hopefully your're right . Let's lay some ice down.

 

 

Annoying...

wrong --

 

I only mentioned icing with this storm, last week, when GFS meteograms were printing out close to 2.5" of ice for ORH.   Obviously that ain't working out, but I never said it was a very determined solution.

 

You do this a lot, and I think it is why you open yourself up as a target for those that want to make fun -- you put words in people's mouths (typing...) that are either flat made up or so heavily spun that it's just lying.  Period.  

 

There is no way I spoke seriously about ice in September or October.   R u kidding?  I'll go ahead and assume so... I may have mentioned it ( I do have a vague memory...) as an outside possibility for something earlier in November, but I remember it as very hypothetical at best.