weathafella Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Well yeah, but just looking at what the models have been offering up (aside from last night's 00z ECM) for next weekend looks a lot like the recent systems we've seen. Bulk of the precip with the storm being in the warm sector and really struggling to get precip into the cold dome. I'm not worried about getting something to wrap up rather than be a really fast moving positive tilt system with only a little light precip on the NW side. The GGEM (not the best model though) has been showing it, and the 6z GFS looks sort of similar. I think one point is a week out go by ensembles and hot the op depiction despite now favorable it is (to me) today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What in the sam hell is a crib alert?boys calling for their mommas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I think one point is a week out go by ensembles and hot the op depiction despite now favorable it is (to me) today. Oh most certainly, that was just an example of the type of systems we've been seeing, and they are still showing up on models as coming up. Even the massive QPF bomb 10 days ago didn't get much precipitation into the cold sector and it was a snowfall bust for most of the NW flank. I'm not saying this is most certainly going to happen, but its not like these things are closing off mid-levels and really advecting moisture back into the cold dome. They are all seemingly walking a fine line in this pattern, with most of them all front-end loaded if that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 boys calling for their mommas Merry Christmas Kevin in your hood in Hollis. I love when the LR finally depicts Christmas day, right or wrong, always my favorite runs to watch tick down. This rivals 1983, but of course la la land 998.7 252 -22.8 975.0 428 -23.3 950.0 619 -18.2 925.0 820 -16.0 900.0 1026 -16.9 850.0 1452 -19.4 550.0 4590 -33.4 500.0 5254 -36.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Weekend discussion. Tippacanoe started it. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41915-subtle-signal-but-there-nonetheless/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This hasn't really been discussed, but some of the guidance looks pretty windexy for Wednesday evening/night. Not really the classic arctic front windex event with the temp differential and LI spike...but some decent PVA could carry some LES activity into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This hasn't really been discussed, but some of the guidance looks pretty windexy for Wednesday evening/night. Not really the classic arctic front windex event with the temp differential and LI spike...but some decent PVA could carry some LES activity into SNE.nice pickup Will. Pure winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Not disagreeing that it wasn't cold..but to call it warm...is reeeeaallly stretching it It was above average...even if a couple days were near average. Culminated in the furnace on friday. It was a mild stretch. Yeah Burlington's running +3.7F right now, although mostly due to the 3rd, 5th, and 6th. Yesterday was the first below normal day of the month. 1 38 28 33 1 2 38 28 33 1 3 43 29 36 5 4 39 25 32 1 5 54 30 42 12 6 51 35 43 13 7 35 25 30 0 8 29 22 26 -3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yeah Burlington's running +3.7F right now, although mostly due to the 3rd, 5th, and 6th. Yesterday was the first below normal day of the month. 1 38 28 33 1 2 38 28 33 1 3 43 29 36 5 4 39 25 32 1 5 54 30 42 12 6 51 35 43 13 7 35 25 30 0 8 29 22 26 -3 repeat of November, bottom drop time. Hopefully you like to enjoy the bitter cold that is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 nice pickup Will. Pure winter It has that look of a lot of snow showers before the coldest air comes in Wednesday night. The PVA often "picks up" the LES streamers and carries them downstream for a time...helping sustain them for a ways before finally drying up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Man, when you look at the temps for the next 10 days and the opportunities for snow you certainly can't complain about this pattern...especially since it is only December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 OES for the Cape Wednesday night, or too much of a westerly component? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 501 thickness, 500 temp -40 850 -19, yea that's frigging cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS has a miller B, and I agree with it, but the storm will transfer further south, maybe somewhere near DE, or the Delmarva peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 GFS has a miller B, and I agree with it, but the storm will transfer further south, maybe somewhere near DE, or the Delmarva peninsula. this seems like a Mid Atlantic Pattern somehow, someway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Weeklies looked a bit improved. Still a SE ridge but weaker and a bit better with +height anomalies over AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I know there is a lot going on near term but absolutely intense cold forecasted. Meteograms for Tuesday for our areas have temps in the single digits with winds gusting near 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Weeklies looked a bit improved. Still a SE ridge but weaker and a bit better with +height anomalies over AK. when does the euro monthly come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 18z GFS cold cold cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 when does the euro monthly come out? Thanks for reminding me. They came out yeaterday. When I get my laptop back from the wife, I'll look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Thanks for reminding me. They came out yeaterday. When I get my laptop back from the wife, I'll look. sounds good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Looks like a good snowstorm on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 sounds good The JFM period has some rather high + 500mb anomalies into SNE, but also a real nice AK/Aleutian ridge. Seems like same pattern as we have now...although the height anomalies seemed a little higher than I would expect here. FMA was much cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The JFM period has some rather high + 500mb anomalies into SNE, but also a real nice AK/Aleutian ridge. Seems like same pattern as we have now...although the height anomalies seemed a little higher than I would expect here. FMA was much cooler. Maybe Ekster and I can get a nice two for one deal on toasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Maybe Ekster and I can get a nice two for one deal on toasters. Ha, well I would not hold those forecasts to high standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Sat/Sun event stays the course on the GFS. Front end dump to ZR (interior) RN (coast) verbatim. Good high to the north makes me wonder if this can trend colder in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Pretty good snow bomb potential for inland areas here in NNE sat night sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Guidance seems to be pretty consistent with this right now...GGEM on the SWFE/Miller B hybrid idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 With transient confluence, transfering might be too late and too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Pretty good snow bomb potential for inland areas here in NNE sat night sunday Yeah nice warning criteria event. Let's hold it for a bit now haha...like 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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