Snow_Miser Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 The euro ensembles have been Building that ridge off the west coast for a few days. Not a classic +PNA, but should help amplify the flow a bit. Certainly not torchy although that doesn't mean and can't force a cutter. Sounds similar to what the 18z GEFS have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 00z GFS has the Polar Vortex dive down over New England creating a clipper to coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Holy cold, crib alert raised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What a fabulous period we.re beginning now. At my age, I savor these and try to slow them down...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 What in the sam hell is a crib alert? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 What a fabulous period we.re beginning now. At my age, I savor these and try to slow them down...lol. Pretty strong signal still for an event around 12/15 on the ensembles. Hopefully that looks better as we get closer. Right now it looks decent, but of course there is no guarantee it can't cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Looks like an active pattern coming up. Maybe a brief relaxation a few days before Christmas, but that's way out there. EPAC may also try to reshuffle to more AK ridge at the end of the euro ensemble run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Pretty strong signal still for an event around 12/15 on the ensembles. Hopefully that looks better as we get closer. Right now it looks decent, but of course there is no guarantee it can't cut. Euro ensembles looked cold out through d10. A December to remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Euro ensembles looked cold out through d10. A December to remember? Some of them did cut the 15th system though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Euro ensembles looked cold out through d10. A December to remember? We said you just can't go warm for any period this winter. There's just too much cold up to our north.It's overwhelming everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 We said you just can't go warm for any period this winter. There's just too much cold up to our north.It's overwhelming everything What did we just have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Some of them did cut the 15th system though. 06z GEFS were cutting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 06z GEFS were cutting too. They are almost more like a weak clipper that trakcs overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 They are almost more like a weak clipper that trakcs overhead. Pretty mild though. Just goes to show you it's a tough call...but to be honest..I sort of lean colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Pretty mild though. Just goes to show you it's a tough call...but to be honest..I sort of lean colder. Something around 12/18 too...on both sets of ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Pretty mild though. Just goes to show you it's a tough call...but to be honest..I sort of lean colder. At this range, I'm not leaning one way or the other--just something to be mindful of. Regardless, we have the cold to enjoy! 21.1/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Something around 12/18 too...on both sets of ensembles. I like that pattern going forward. Hopefully we can keep it active. Looked like the heights near and west of AK were rising again at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I like that pattern going forward. Hopefully we can keep it active. Looked like the heights near and west of AK were rising again at the end. Yes its not bad. Probably a lot of SWFE risk (to be expected with +NAO)...but with a little amplification there's potential for more of a miller B, which is sort what the OP Euro showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I like that pattern going forward. Hopefully we can keep it active. Looked like the heights near and west of AK were rising again at the end. We want that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yes its not bad. Probably a lot of SWFE risk (to be expected with +NAO)...but with a little amplification there's potential for more of a miller B, which is sort what the OP Euro showed. This is the same model that's been bringing like near -30C H85 temps into NNE this weekend, right? lol. Yesterday from a 1040mb high on Sat/Sun and near record cold to a snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 This is the same model that's been bringing like near -30C H85 temps into NNE this weekend, right? lol. Yesterday from a 1040mb high on Sat/Sun and near record cold to a snowstorm... ECM.JPG Yes, they still bring really cold air in, its just that it is behind this system which has been becoming more defined on the ensembles and various OP runs as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 What did we just have? Huh? you mean last week...I think there was 1..maybe 2 days AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yes its not bad. Probably a lot of SWFE risk (to be expected with +NAO)...but with a little amplification there's potential for more of a miller B, which is sort what the OP Euro showed. I mean it's not classic, but I'd take it. Looked like it could be active which is all we want really. Too early for ptype but we know the risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Huh? you mean last week...I think there was 1..maybe 2 days AN It was a mild stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Huh? you mean last week...I think there was 1..maybe 2 days AN It was above average...even if a couple days were near average. Culminated in the furnace on friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Yes, they still bring really cold air in, its just that it is behind this system which has been becoming more defined on the ensembles and various OP runs as we get closer. Ahhh I can't see beyond the weekend on Wunderground free maps, but that would make sense if a system like that took place. I just hope we can finally get one to wrap up a little...and not end up with some sheared system that can't transport any moisture into the cold dome. With all these systems it seems that you have to hope you are in the like 50 mile wide band on the NW fringe, while 90% of the precip is rain and southeast of the H85 0C isotherm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 We want that correct? We do. Too early to say of that is a fantasy or not, but better than lowering heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Ahhh I can't see beyond the weekend on Wunderground free maps, but that would make sense if a system like that took place. I just hope we can finally get one to wrap up a little...and not end up with some sheared system that can't transport any moisture into the cold dome. With all these systems it seems that you have to hope you are in the like 50 mile wide band on the NW fringe, while 90% of the precip is rain and southeast of the H85 0C isotherm. I wouldn't worry about precip really. It will be there if we get this pattern most likely. One anafrontal system and a weak SWFE isn't representative of the storm types you get in these patterns. There's obviously no guarantees, but we can talk about the probabilistic standpoint. It seems many are very quick to jump an a very small sample size of 1 or 2 systems about 3 days into this pattern versus a much larger historical sample. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 It was a mild stretch. Not disagreeing that it wasn't cold..but to call it warm...is reeeeaallly stretching it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 I wouldn't worry about precip really. It will be there if we get this pattern most likely. One anafrontal system and a weak SWFE isn't representative of the storm types you get in these patterns. There's obviously no guarantees, but we can talk about the probabilistic standpoint. It seems many are very quick to jump an a very small sample size of 1 or 2 systems about 3 days into this pattern versus a much larger historical sample. Well yeah, but just looking at what the models have been offering up (aside from last night's 00z ECM) for next weekend looks a lot like the recent systems we've seen. Bulk of the precip with the storm being in the warm sector and really struggling to get precip into the cold dome. I'm not worried about getting something to wrap up rather than be a really fast moving positive tilt system with only a little light precip on the NW side. The GGEM (not the best model though) has been showing it, and the 6z GFS looks sort of similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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