CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 May not have to wait that long... GGEM/EURO where transiently "bulgy" over the Rockies while spinning up a coastal D7 -- too far out, but the spread is back west, so it could very well correct that direction. Or not... just sayin' By the way. Looks like a -EPO relaxation, but not a phase break-down, at least not entirely. I don't see the AA phase of the N. Pac changing in the ensembles, and that would support a resurgent -EPO given enough time ... unless all that changes out along and W of the Date Line. Sure. Yeah it does relax, but not entirely. That PV is still wobbling around in Canada. At least as the -EPO relaxes...the PNA tries to rise a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yeah it does relax, but not entirely. That PV is still wobbling around in Canada. At least as the -EPO relaxes...the PNA tries to rise a bit. Please I beg of thee --- frankly, I've grown tired of looking at this -EPO/-PNA crap. That can lead to interesting mix events/ice ... but this pattern has had a weird way of under performing and at this point, there's just not a lot entertaining if otherwise it's wasted in busting flat waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Please I beg of thee --- frankly, I've grown tired of looking at this -EPO/+PNA crap. That can lead to interesting mix events/ice ... but this pattern has had a weird way of under performing and at this point, there's just not a lot entertaining if otherwise it's wasted in busting flat waves. Well what I mean is that there is some ridging in the EPAC to cut down any Pacific crap that moves in. It probably would teleconnect to a trough over the Plains so we would have to look out for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Well what I mean is that there is some ridging in the EPAC to cut down any Pacific crap that moves in. It probably would teleconnect to a trough over the Plains so we would have to look out for that. I meant to say -EPO/-PNA, not -EPO/+PNA... A vestigial -EPO with a rising PNA would be very interesting actually... You'd get kind of an Archembaultian flavor with residual cold near-by. I'll take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Most ensemble members of the GFS clan have a relaxation in the polar vortex over central Canada and have it rotate towards Northeastern Canada by day 10. SOme members phase the PV trough with an incoming southern stream system and creates a big storm in the day 8-9 time frame. Also ridging in the EPO region does not allow Pacific air to flood the region and instead allows a dump of cold air into the US depending upon where the PV resets. I'm fascinated in the aspects of the PV trough trying to phase with the overall mean trough over the eastern US by day 8-9. I'm fascinated by a lot of things, but we might not have to wait all that long for a decent sized storm to take place this December, latest by the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Tales from the crib, boys crying for their Mommas cold on tonight's Euro, holy sh it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 Tales from the crib, boys crying for their Mommas cold on tonight's Euro, holy sh it. Be nice if it was right about next weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 My goal is to see the GL freeze over - Heavy freezing spray on L. Superior right now -- I don't recall seeing that this early in the year. Usually that's a late January type thing. you have lofty goals lol. Erie freezes most of the time, It's extremely difficult for any of the other lakes to freeze over because they're average depth is like 200 ft compared to the paltry 62 ft of Erie. http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/science/03/12/canada.lakes.reut/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 This is cool. ASK TOM WHY: Has Lake Michigan ever been totally frozen? Posted on January 1, 2013 by wgnweather Dear Tom, Has Lake Michigan ever been totally frozen? — Jim Penning, Oak Park Dear Jim, It has not. Ice development on Lake Michigan, usually beginning in January, attains its maximum extent by early March. Wind and wave action, combined with the vast reservoir of heat contained in the lake, prevents it from freezing completely. According to Environment Canada and the U.S. National Weather Service, lake ice coverage reached 90 percent to 95 percent in the winters of 1903-04, 1976-77 and 1978-79. Data indicate that three of the Great Lakes (Superior, Huron and Erie) have totally frozen over in a few of the very harshest winters since 1900, but Michigan and Ontario have never achieved complete ice coverage. http://blog.chicagoweathercenter.com/2013/01/01/ask-tom-why-has-lake-michigan-ever-been-totally-frozen/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Jesus is the euro op cold for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Be nice if it was right about next weekend storm ? This is the Euro at 12z next Sunday. Am I missing something about a weekend storm? This is a 1040+ high building into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Jesus is the euro op cold for next weekend. Jesus is the euro op cold for next weekend. Apparently, according to hpc, it is on its own with the other models being cold but not extreme. How does the set up affect the set up for a coastal storm/Miller A? I see on HPC graphics a nice high in Western Quebec and low pressure along the Carolina coast. If I was in Philly, I'd be excited about that set up, but if there is no blocking to hold it in, that storm would just slip up and out quickly I'd think. Someone posted earlier this week that arctic air and snowstorms didn't go together very often. But I think some of the best storms come from moisture attacking fresh arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Euro ensembles trended colder this weekend. We still need to watch that storm to the south, although the risk is it getting squashed. Long range still hasn't changed to much. I do think we will turn milder "in general" but shots of cold will also be around. Perhaps we try to cool off before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Apparently, according to hpc, it is on its own with the other models being cold but not extreme. How does the set up affect the set up for a coastal storm/Miller A? I see on HPC graphics a nice high in Western Quebec and low pressure along the Carolina coast. If I was in Philly, I'd be excited about that set up, but if there is no blocking to hold it in, that storm would just slip up and out quickly I'd think. Someone posted earlier this week that arctic air and snowstorms didn't go together very often. But I think some of the best storms come from moisture attacking fresh arctic air. Most of the ecens get us below zero with that arctic high and the GEFS get frigid too, but yeah...nothing is as cold as that op run. Hopefully we can put down 1-2" of cement tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Most of the ecens get us below zero with that arctic high and the GEFS get frigid too, but yeah...nothing is as cold as that op run. Hopefully we can put down 1-2" of cement tomorrow. 2-4 if you believe nws. maybe yesterday underperforms and tomorrow overperforms. apparently 0z gfs had > .5qpf, falling as all frozen and mostly snow. Other models were .25-.4 I think gray said. I will be in London returning Friday afternoon. I should be in for quite the shock when I get out of the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 My goal is to see the GL freeze over - Heavy freezing spray on L. Superior right now -- I don't recall seeing that this early in the year. Usually that's a late January type thing. Good luck, Tip. I hope you're going to come at it differently than Damage does in his efforts to build a snowpack, as his method just ain't working. But if you're looking for a less intensive effort and perhaps more rewarding effort (well, for me anyway) you might want to switch your efforts to Lake Champlain. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 2-4 if you believe nws. maybe yesterday underperforms and tomorrow overperforms. apparently 0z gfs had > .5qpf, falling as all frozen and mostly snow. Other models were .25-.4 I think gray said. I will be in London returning Friday afternoon. I should be in for quite the shock when I get out of the airport. Mostly a rounding issue. 2.2" is technically 2-4". I'm going to be surprised if we have widespread totals at the higher end of that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Mostly a rounding issue. 2.2" is technically 2-4". I'm going to be surprised if we have widespread totals at the higher end of that range. The discussion was perhaps sounding a bit generous. By the way the "if you believe nws" was not intended negatively. I reread it and hoped it didn't come off that way. You guys are good, and often fun to read in the winter. I'm just hoping it is enough to establish the winter permanent snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The discussion was perhaps sounding a bit generous. By the way the "if you believe nws" was not intended negatively. I reread it and hoped it didn't come off that way. You guys are good, and often fun to read in the winter. I'm just hoping it is enough to establish the winter permanent snow cover. Didn't take it that way at all, just wanted to make sure I was clear how meh I am about this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Looks to me like the pna goes slightly positive during the second half of the month with a little ridging in the west...things arent so bad afterall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Looks to me like the pna goes slightly positive during the second half of the month with a little ridging in the west...things arent so bad afterall? I think we still walk the line. I'm fine with this pattern, if we're getting 1 or 2 storm chances a week we have shots at snow. Some will be messy, and some all rain probably. But as long as we have Chances I think we will snow here in southeast ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Looks to me like the pna goes slightly positive during the second half of the month with a little ridging in the west...things arent so bad afterall? Yeah was actually looking at that... toward D10 it seems that we want to try and pop and +PNA with a bit of ridging out toward the west coast. If nothing else that probably helps our storm chances... you can see things getting a bit active during week 2. Certainly could be a cutter but I'll take my chances not having to deal with these strung out/sheared POSes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Apparently, according to hpc, it is on its own with the other models being cold but not extreme. How does the set up affect the set up for a coastal storm/Miller A? I see on HPC graphics a nice high in Western Quebec and low pressure along the Carolina coast. If I was in Philly, I'd be excited about that set up, but if there is no blocking to hold it in, that storm would just slip up and out quickly I'd think. Someone posted earlier this week that arctic air and snowstorms didn't go together very often. But I think some of the best storms come from moisture attacking fresh arctic air. Yeah, that high acts like a bumper in a pinball machine on the GFS for that storm... Barely even makes a dent in the cold dome. Cold highs, warm cutter lows. Gotta love the anticipation and then disappointment cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 It'll be interesting to see what the ECM does at the 12z run that should be rolling out... The 00z ECM had a 1040mb+ arctic high moving in on Sat/Sun, while the new GGEM run has a storm moving through on Saturday and Saturday night. This was the 12z GGEM at valid 7pm Saturday, much different than the 00z ECM prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Euro ensembles trended colder this weekend. We still need to watch that storm to the south, although the risk is it getting squashed. Long range still hasn't changed to much. I do think we will turn milder "in general" but shots of cold will also be around. Perhaps we try to cool off before Christmas. Are there any precip. anomalies on the Euro ensembles or weeklies? Because right now the issue is dry begets dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Yeah was actually looking at that... toward D10 it seems that we want to try and pop and +PNA with a bit of ridging out toward the west coast. If nothing else that probably helps our storm chances... you can see things getting a bit active during week 2. Certainly could be a cutter but I'll take my chances not having to deal with these strung out/sheared POSes. Yeah this severe cold seems be mulching away the storm bfire it gets here. As others have pointed out, we'LL generally be milder 2nd half but at the same time storms wont get strung out and may be more healthy ...with marginal cold still around, we could do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Euro is ridic cold again this weekend. 1040 arctic high oozing down from YUL/YSC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I think we still walk the line. I'm fine with this pattern, if we're getting 1 or 2 storm chances a week we have shots at snow. Some will be messy, and some all rain probably. But as long as we have Chances I think we will snow here in southeast ma Agreed. I think we'll still have storm chances but with marginal air, we'll (especially you) will be sweating them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Euro is ridic cold again this weekend. 1040 arctic high oozing down from YUL/YSC. So I take it doesn't look like the GGEM above with around 0C H85 isotherm at the Mass Pike at 7pm SAT? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 So I take it doesn't look like the GGEM above with around 0C H85 isotherm at the Mass Pike at 7pm SAT? lol The GGEM is really an awful model past 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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