Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Euro has widespread 2m -10Fs up here next Sat morning...lol. I would love to see that -30 850's pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Overnight runs weren't bad. The euro was a lot higher with heights in AK with a few storm threats. Threats being snow or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Would be nice to get snow for those temps. Snowpack wouldn't modify the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I would love to see that -30 850's pan outThat would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Would be nice to get snow for those temps. Snowpack wouldn't modify the temps. Yea right, i know its the OP at day 7 but thats still totally impressive to see on a prog. December all time records are -27 to -29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Would be nice to get snow for those temps. Snowpack wouldn't modify the temps. At some point we get snow maybe just in time for Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yea right, i know its the OP at day 7 but thats still totally impressive to see on a prog. December all time records are -27 to -29For where? Fort Kent Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Well some cold and cutter humor aside...it's still a dicey pattern in the 11-15 day and likely beyond..but as long as the PV is north of the border..we'll have a shot. That's about all you can say. It may be a matter of time before timing allows a more widespread wintry threat. The one near day 8 is one to watch. You can dissect the pattern and point all all the analogs you want, but the fact of the matter is you can't account for nuances in the flow that may or may not allow it to behave like previous years. I'm sort of intrigued by the pattern..but I'm also more than aware that it may not be fruitful. Luckily it's early December. This type of pattern can still favor a miller B if the PV flexes south just enough. Luckily BOS on average still has 92% of their seasonal snowfall come after this date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Luckily BOS on average still has 92% of their seasonal snowfall come after this date.The glass is 8% empty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The glass is 8% empty. That's the spirit! Sadly CON is already 11% in the hole. Only 89% of the seasonal average left to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I mean we all do it. I just made my "guess" for the GYX snowfall pool yesterday and had to remind myself that despite it feeling less snowy, on average we usually only have 5.5" to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Luckily BOS on average still has 92% of their seasonal snowfall come after this date. Yeah December can be hit or miss. To me, losing January and February is what hurts. You always have a different outlook on snow living near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 At some point we get snow maybe just in time for Christmas Is it too early to start a January pattern disco thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Yeah December can be hit or miss. To me, losing January and February is what hurts. You always have a different outlook on snow living near the coast. yeah that's how i feel. get me to around 12/25 and i start taking things a bit more "seriously" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 yeah that's how i feel. get me to around 12/25 and i start taking things a bit more "seriously" Maybe if you lived in Pittsburg, NH and you whiffed on December you could have a serious gripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Maybe if you lived in Pittsburg, NH and you whiffed on December you could have a serious gripe. It's always winter there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It's always winter there. During the year without a summer they probably had big upslope snowfall in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 man I was kind of excited for the second week of December or so but now it seems rather meh. Going forward through much of the next few weeks there just doesn't appear to be anything promising. Whenever we see some action from the northern stream, nothing is particularly strong or draws major interest and looking later ahead in the month, whenever something comes in from the southern stream, it starts to cut northeast towards the Great Lakes area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Maybe if you lived in Pittsburg, NH and you whiffed on December you could have a serious gripe. lol...really anywhere along the coast in SNE it's just a challenge in december. even in jan and feb it's certainly a gamble depending on the pattern. i like the reward though when it works out...high impact events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 lol...really anywhere along the coast in SNE it's just a challenge in december. even in jan and feb it's certainly a gamble depending on the pattern. i like the reward though when it works out...high impact events. It would do snow weenies good to live in other parts of the country for a little. It snowed all the time in December in Iowa. But it's fairly rare to see much over 6" out of a storm. A widespread 12+, forget it. Those storms just don't happen often in that part of the country (mostly due to moisture having to travel from the GoM rather than your backyard). I've experienced the storm of record in both cities I've lived in now. MLI tied the mark at 17.6", PWM shattered it at 32." The potential is New England is just so much greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It would do snow weenies good to live in other parts of the country for a little. It snowed all the time in December in Iowa. But it's fairly rare to see much over 6" out of a storm. A widespread 12+, forget it. Those storms just don't happen often in that part of the country (mostly due to moisture having to travel from the GoM rather than your backyard). I've experienced the storm of record in both cities I've lived in now. MLI tied the mark at 17.6", PWM shattered it at 32." The potential is New England is just so much greater. even philly has better potential for 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 It would do snow weenies good to live in other parts of the country for a little. It snowed all the time in December in Iowa. But it's fairly rare to see much over 6" out of a storm. A widespread 12+, forget it. Those storms just don't happen often in that part of the country (mostly due to moisture having to travel from the GoM rather than your backyard). I've experienced the storm of record in both cities I've lived in now. MLI tied the mark at 17.6", PWM shattered it at 32." The potential is New England is just so much greater. Depends on where that part of the country is, haha. Wiff on December up here is noose worthy...when you have the potential to get snow from both mesoscale (upslope) and synoptic methods, it gets rough to go on like two week dry binges. I'm sure its the same up in Pittsburg, NH. I mean there's a NWS employee in Underhill, VT (like 25 minutes from BTV) who averages over 150" a year at only 1,000ft and can often exceed 200" (like 2010-2011 was 220"), then you've obviously got the ski resorts with huge averages and the east slope communities like here that are more in the 125" range. You start dumping entire winter months with only like a foot of snow, you can fall behind real quickly. All I do is remember when I was growing up near Albany, and as long as I'm getting more snow than there on average, I'm content. Its hard not to get jaded though and expect a foot a week. The ski area averages are pretty crazy though, as during the heart of the season, if you aren't pulling 18" a week in the higher elevations, you start falling behind, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2013 Author Share Posted December 7, 2013 December 16-22, 2013 Thoughts: Historical experience argues for the EPO to go neutral or positive within a week after mid-month, but the ensembles show a rise but do not conclusively agree on that outcome. As a consequence, my thoughts assume an EPO that is a compromise (neutral to somewhat negative through the duration of the period in question. There are also some differences between the GFS ensembles and the reforecast ensembles. Considering the existence of somewhat of a disconnect between the objective analogs based on the GFS ensembles and the outcome for the ensembles themselves, as well as the reforecast ensembles showing more cold air in Canada, I suspect that the reforecast ensembles probably are closer to reality. The ensembles may be reducing the expanse of cold anomalies in Canada a little more quickly. Nevertheless, the outcome suggests milder conditions will likely become more widespread across the CONUS during the period, though parts of the northern tier could still wind up colder than normal. A cold shot, particularly early in the period could impact the East. Below are charts showing the ENSO+teleconnection cases, teleconnection cases excluding ENSO, the reforecast ensembles, and most recent run of the NAEFS: Overall, my thoughts err on the colder side across parts of the Northern tier of the CONUS for the overall anomalies during the period. Specifically, my thoughts are as follows: Canada: Almost all of Canada would wind up with cold anomalies for the period as a whole. Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, Great Lakes region, New England: Somewhat cooler than normal. Southwest, Central/Southern Plains, Mid-Atlantic: Generally warmer than normal, but the northern Mid-Atlantic could wind up near to normal. Southeast/Gulf Coast: Warmer to possibly much warmer than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Euro ensembles are awfully cold up here for this coming week. Doesn't bring PWM above freezing from Wednesday on. No real danger in record cold (need low teens during the day and around -10 at night), but impressive duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Euro ensembles are awfully cold up here for this coming week. Doesn't bring PWM above freezing from Wednesday on. No real danger in record cold (need low teens during the day and around -10 at night), but impressive duration. The 2M temps on the Euro are quite chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The 2M temps on the Euro are quite chilly The ensemble MOS product has the 90th percentile at 30 degrees a week from today at PWM. That's still a -8 on the high, the coldest member is a 13 degree high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The Euro EPS H8 temps are a solid -15 below normal from midweek on, with the mean -25 C across NNE. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The ensemble MOS product has the 90th percentile at 30 degrees a week from today at PWM. That's still a -8 on the high, the coldest member is a 13 degree high. That's not bad at all for ensemble MOS, especially this far out. Looks like the coldest temps would occur next weekend. Euro had 2M temps as low as -20C to -30C across central/northern NE and event as low as -10C down this way. It does appear to warm a bit moving into the week of the 16th but like you said, the duration of the next cold snap is quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 How come it seems like we never have genuine Alberta clippers and Saskatchewan Screamers any longer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I'd be curious to know what some of the snow totals are so far for places in the western-southern regions of the country. I expect that some of them are probably much more than any SNE so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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