CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 followed by a rain event. hooray! 1980s en route? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 1980s en route? or 76-77? I think that winter had alot of big cold with warm rainstorms in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 yikes. i need to post less. LOL Haha thought the same thing about myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I prefer our 30 page discussion to be geared to whether someone hits 87F or 91F or if BDR will finish with a -0.2F or +0.9F departure. I'll admit to being jealous about the amount of discussion you guys have over even minor snow events in SNE...I wish there was this intense discussion with 1am Euro updates and all that every time it snows 1-5" up here. I'm usually left posting to myself, JSpin, and now Eyewall, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Okay, I have to ask... How exactly does one "work so hard for it to snow"? If you weenie out hard enough, you can actually change the weather. It's like if someone forecasts rain, while another poster thinks snow, then when it rains that poster will reply well I guess you got that rain you were hoping for. There's a disconnect between "wanting" and "forecasting" at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Sorry I enjoy weather and used this forum to help with forecast decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 If you weenie out hard enough, you can actually change the weather. It's like if someone forecasts rain, while another poster thinks snow, then when it rains that poster will reply well I guess you got that rain you were hoping for. There's a disconnect between "wanting" and "forecasting" at times. especially around here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Operational euro looks worlds better in the Npac toward the end of the run. I know the op that far out is low-skill, but one day warm-up then back to bitter cold. No pac flood. Still waiting for the Atlantic to pitch in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I'll admit to being jealous about the amount of discussion you guys have over even minor snow events in SNE...I wish there was this intense discussion with 1am Euro updates and all that every time it snows 1-5" up here. I'm usually left posting to myself, JSpin, and now Eyewall, I'm always reading but have little to add meteorogically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not worried about a d9-10 rainy cutter through OH...just give us cold and systems plowing into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not worried about a d9-10 rainy cutter through OH...just give us cold and systems plowing into it. Cold, cutter, cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Cold, cutter, cold?I will take my chances up here with d10 cutters all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Euro ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I will take my chances up here with d10 cutters all winter. Well yeah, the land where warm fronts come to die. Still seems ok in the long range, but looks a little cutter-ish to me after next week. I mean it might be a lot of messy events down here, but riding the line. Hopefully it's not a cold-crap storm-cold type pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Well yeah, the land where warm fronts come to die. Still seems ok in the long range, but looks a little cutter-ish to me after next week. I mean it might be a lot of messy events down here, but riding the line. Hopefully it's not a cold-crap storm-cold type pattern. That's crossed my mind a few times. I remember storms where it warms up just in time for all rain or a 1 inch snow then all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Models have the 16th storm out to sea with the exception of the EURO which is a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Well yeah, the land where warm fronts come to die. Still seems ok in the long range, but looks a little cutter-ish to me after next week. I mean it might be a lot of messy events down here, but riding the line. Hopefully it's not a cold-crap storm-cold type pattern.Yeah...I expect a messy stretch and some to not work out. I just like that frigid low-level cold lurking to our north. I'm speaking more IMBYish too because of how well we CAD. We're due for a grinch storm too...it's been a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 That's crossed my mind a few times. I remember storms where it warms up just in time for all rain or a 1 inch snow then all rain It's probably a mix of both messy storms and warm ones.. We'll just see how it goes. The EPAC ridging is not ideal, but it beats the GOA low. It also seems like the Aleutian lower heights will weaken as heights tried to rise at the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Add another day to the Euro ens not having a warmup. For NYC and Toronto below, wheres the cutter on this? Pretty cold south to North on the Euro Ens, what was discussed last week for the 11-15 day period has trended colder 5 consecutive days. NYC 08.12.2013 12 GMT -7.3 °C 09.12.2013 12 GMT 1.5 °C 10.12.2013 12 GMT -5.3 °C 11.12.2013 12 GMT -12.7 °C 12.12.2013 12 GMT -14.1 °C 13.12.2013 12 GMT -13.5 °C 14.12.2013 12 GMT -8.1 °C 15.12.2013 12 GMT -1.1 °C 16.12.2013 12 GMT -5.3 °C 08.12.2013 12 GMT -13.2 °C 09.12.2013 12 GMT -2.3 °C 10.12.2013 12 GMT -16.6 °C 11.12.2013 12 GMT -17.8 °C 12.12.2013 12 GMT -18.4 °C 13.12.2013 12 GMT -15.3 °C 14.12.2013 12 GMT -10.4 °C 15.12.2013 12 GMT -7.9 °C 16.12.2013 12 GMT -10.7 °C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Add another day to the Euro ens not having a warmup. For NYC and Toronto below, wheres the cutter on this? Pretty cold south to North on the Euro Ens, what was discussed last week for the 11-15 day period has trended colder 5 consecutive days. NYC 08.12.2013 12 GMT -7.3 °C 09.12.2013 12 GMT 1.5 °C 10.12.2013 12 GMT -5.3 °C 11.12.2013 12 GMT -12.7 °C 12.12.2013 12 GMT -14.1 °C 13.12.2013 12 GMT -13.5 °C 14.12.2013 12 GMT -8.1 °C 15.12.2013 12 GMT -1.1 °C 16.12.2013 12 GMT -5.3 °C 08.12.2013 12 GMT -13.2 °C 09.12.2013 12 GMT -2.3 °C 10.12.2013 12 GMT -16.6 °C 11.12.2013 12 GMT -17.8 °C 12.12.2013 12 GMT -18.4 °C 13.12.2013 12 GMT -15.3 °C 14.12.2013 12 GMT -10.4 °C 15.12.2013 12 GMT -7.9 °C 16.12.2013 12 GMT -10.7 °C Plenty of members have cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS has a storm out to sea, but overall mean trough position looks good with the PV over Hudson Bay, Canada, but a part of me thinks it might be too suppressive on the overall mean flow as the SE ridge tries to flex its muscle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS had a 14th storm out to sea, while the 16th storm when cutting inland, but wasn't a true cutter. Key is it still has a storm and the EURO 00z and 12z both had a storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 GFS had a 14th storm out to sea, while the 16th storm when cutting inland, but wasn't a true cutter. Key is it still has a storm and the EURO 00z and 12z both had a storm as well.I wouldn't worry about storms that far out on the deterministic models. Just focus on the pattern and the ensembles. You're going to make yourself crazy obsessing over fantasy storms that won't verify on op runs. I know we were just talking about the d10 euro op, but it was sorta in jest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Some temperatures: Denver: 1F ORD: 17F MSP: 0F INL: -6F Helena, MT: -8F Cold on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I wouldn't worry about storms that far out on the deterministic models. Just focus on the pattern and the ensembles. You're going to make yourself crazy obsessing over fantasy storms that won't verify on op runs. I know we were just talking about the d10 euro op, but it was sorta in jest. I understand the deterministic models and the operational models are unlikely to have the actual solution this far out, I'm just looking at the overall pattern placement and I'm liking it. Especially with the PV over Hudson Bay. Although the GFS and EURO are replacing the PV with a new PV, which may lead to relaxation period with a cutter in the future unless the PV can reposition itself in future runs over Hudson Bay, Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Well some cold and cutter humor aside...it's still a dicey pattern in the 11-15 day and likely beyond..but as long as the PV is north of the border..we'll have a shot. That's about all you can say. It may be a matter of time before timing allows a more widespread wintry threat. The one near day 8 is one to watch. You can dissect the pattern and point all all the analogs you want, but the fact of the matter is you can't account for nuances in the flow that may or may not allow it to behave like previous years. I'm sort of intrigued by the pattern..but I'm also more than aware that it may not be fruitful. Luckily it's early December. This type of pattern can still favor a miller B if the PV flexes south just enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Well some cold and cutter humor aside...it's still a dicey pattern in the 11-15 day and likely beyond..but as long as the PV is north of the border..we'll have a shot. That's about all you can say. It may be a matter of time before timing allows a more widespread wintry threat. The one near day 8 is one to watch. You can dissect the pattern and point all all the analogs you want, but the fact of the matter is you can't account for nuances in the flow that may or may not allow it to behave like previous years. I'm sort of intrigued by the pattern..but I'm also more than aware that it may not be fruitful. Luckily it's early December. This type of pattern can still favor a miller B if the PV flexes south just enough. There's a threat around the 10th on the NAM in its final image at 84 hours. But GFS focuses on sometime after that maybe the 11-12th period, but what I'm intrigued about is the 16th time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 There's several threats on the 00z Canadian, they are out to sea right now, but the overall mean position of the Polar Vortex and troughing is over Hudson Bay, Canada in a good position for something wintry here in New England. Just interesting week ahead, we just need to get past the Dec 9th event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 00z EURO at 240 hours shows a coastal storm with impressive dynamics as southern stream and northern stream disturbances phase over the eastern US. What's interesting between the 12z yesterday model run and today's 00z run on the euro they show a difference at H5 with the December 13th system, with a more defined system, but still remains far enough offshore not to impact anyone on the east coast significantly. 00z Canadian and GFS showed this system as well. What's interesting is the placement of the Polar Vortex over the hudson Bay, Canada and how favorable it is to get a storm to come up the east coast with some ridging over the western US states appearing after the day 1-3 system over the west coast. I think we really need to watch first the frontal wave and clipper system for the 10th and then the 13th followed by the 16-17th system with some timing issues between the GFS and EURO on that system to pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Euro has widespread 2m -10Fs up here next Sat morning...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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