CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Scott, it appears energy vorticity max tries to round the base of the PV trough over Hudson Bay and moves into the US through MN and through the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Right now the GFS shows it as a frontal low developing along the baroclinic zone just off the East Coast, however the frontal low really begins to develop out to sea. What are your thoughts on the 18z GFS so far? Which time? at hr 126? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Looks like a bitter week of 12/9 and then likely much milder through 12/25 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Looks like a bitter week of 12/9 and then likely much milder through 12/25 or so. Looks that way although CFS says hold that thought a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yes Scott, around hour 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest user123 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 the latest GFS continues the satisfying trend! hopefully these models can get somewhat in sync soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 00z and the 12z suites of the foreign and american models all show this potential wrap around energy lobe from the Polar Vortex over Hudson Bay towards hour 120, moving through the Great Lakes and Northeastern US, but its not far enough south to make a difference on a potential snowstorm after the December 9th threat. Still time for things to change as the baroclinic zone is juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Hey James I'm not a big fan of these follow up lows. I think the 18z gfs is too aggressive with this based on past experience. I could be wrong, but my money is on that wave not occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Hey James I'm not a big fan of these follow up lows. I think the 18z gfs is too aggressive with this based on past experience. I could be wrong, but my money is on that wave not occurring. The thing is, most models have this energy coming out of Manitoba, Canada and rounding the base of the trough by 120 hours and entering the NE US by 126 hours. If model trends were to favor a stronger vorticity max, then I could see the second frontal wave developing, but right now its a toss up and the odds aren't really for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Anyone notice any differences long term on day9-10 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Anyone notice any differences long term on day9-10 Euro?lol...just a few sensible differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Anyone know why we are discussing the day10 euro op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Ensembles look similar and SWFE/inside runner-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Anyone know why we are discussing the day10 euro op?Those discussing the 00z op weren't discussing the 12z.Looks like no real changes...we're going to ride the line so it's no surprise the op runs are this chaotic from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Those discussing the 00z op weren't discussing the 12z. Looks like no real changes...we're going to ride the line so it's no surprise the op runs are this chaotic from run to run. Well to my weenie eyes, it looked like the ridging well south of AK and subtle height rises again by the Aleutians are helping. But yes, we ride the line and relaxation is certainly possible. In the meantime, dam cold next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Those discussing the 00z op weren't discussing the 12z. Looks like no real changes...we're going to ride the line so it's no surprise the op runs are this chaotic from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 How are the teleconnections/synoptics looking for that wave moving in the southern stream later next week? any thing to amplify the flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BTW, I think we are trying to head towards a weak Nino in the coming month or two. A little too late for us..but just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BTW, I think we are trying to head towards a weak Nino in the coming month or two. A little too late for us..but just saying. Well it may help with NAO later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Well it may help with NAO later in the season. Lots of warmer subsurface waters building and some westerly winds too. March FTW? Hopefully a cold wet spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Lol....I just gave my wife a summation of the thoughts of riding the line after this upcoming cold week and she started singing riders on the storm,,,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 BTW, I think we are trying to head towards a weak Nino in the coming month or two. A little too late for us..but just saying. DT had mentioned that back in September I think it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 DT had mentioned that back in September I think it was He had it way too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 He had it way too early. But mentioned we might flip to it during winter..I think that helps us from Feb on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Anyone know why we are discussing the day10 euro op? because some folks are terrified of the torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 because some folks are terrified of the torch? Like you? No ones terrified or we'd all be in the er this morning because today's a proper torch or at least last night was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 But mentioned we might flip to it during winter..I think that helps us from Feb on There is a lag and still -PDO going on. It might be just in time for a cold Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 finally got to see the weeklies...that's not pretty. i guess kind of fits the general idea of a mid-month and beyond relaxation though the ens have been hinting at off and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Cold wet springs suck. Doesnt a frown not a smiley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Cold wet springs suck. Doesnt a frown not a smiley... Hopefully a cool wet summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Like you? No ones terrified or we'd all be in the er this morning because today's a proper torch or at least last night was. But there's no snowpack to melt. So we enjoy this torch. The worst torches come when there's 6-12 inches of pack and it's all vaporized in 2-3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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