N. OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It's an honor... what's your elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm not really anticipating much outta this upcoming week winter "fun" wise. I guess the biggest most satisfying win we can hope for is "getting the ground white" and keeping it that way for a bit. Give us a solid inch or two then give us another of the same and keep the landscape white. I mean really once the ground is white for all you can see, (and we know 2-3' totals are out of the question) does it really matter if it's 3 inches or 6 inches. Lets just get out of this week of "opportunity and fun" that we have been waiting for with several days of snow cover....and maybe a record low in some spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 JUST WOW at the COLD over the West. The NW , SW, Rockies, Plains ...I mean wow! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=12&parm=bigsfc&underlay=1&source=1# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z GFS is a good example of how we remain in a decent pattern for cold and snow chances. It burys a trough into the GOA around D9-11, but you will note that while it is doing that, it is of split flow variety. There is still cross-polar flow going on to the northeast into Canada and the trough is more or less just under-cutting the ridge and not really driving warmth into southern Canada. These types of nuances are something that have to be watched going forward. If the trough is more fully phased with the arctic jet, then you will see more of a furnace pattern develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest user123 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z GFS is a good example of how we remain in a decent pattern for cold and snow chances. It burys a trough into the GOA around D9-11, but you will note that while it is doing that, it is of split flow variety. There is still cross-polar flow going on to the northeast into Canada and the trough is more or less just under-cutting the ridge and not really driving warmth into southern Canada. These types of nuances are something that have to be watched going forward. If the trough is more fully phased with the arctic jet, then you will see more of a furnace pattern develop. Yeah, from what I could tell on the 12z GFS theres sort of a hiccup around 12/16 but really nothing to write home about. The GFS has remained pretty consistent on the matter of a warmup maybe not coming after all. What do you think could be the explanation for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'll take the GEFS with higher heights near AK for 1,000 Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'll take the GEFS with higher heights near AK for 1,000 Alex. LOL. was just coming in here to post same general thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 gefs are worlds better than the euro ens in the long range. that would be a much better deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest user123 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Sorry...like I said I'm new and I'm having trouble interpreting the new GEFS. (I'll get the hang of it I swear). Could one of y'all lay out the gist of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Sorry...like I said I'm new and I'm having trouble interpreting the new GEFS. (I'll get the hang of it I swear). Could one of y'all lay out the gist of it? Sorry about that. GEFS stands for GFS Ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest user123 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Sorry about that. GEFS stands for GFS Ensembles. Gotchya. So they look good though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Sorry...like I said I'm new and I'm having trouble interpreting the new GEFS. (I'll get the hang of it I swear). Could one of y'all lay out the gist of it? I am very much a novice, but a REAL SIMPLE way in which I think of it is as a see saw. Push up the heights in North Pac. and it displaces the cold 'downhill' into the plains and north east U.S. Again, as simple as it can be from an extreme met simpleton!!! All those here with Met degrees go easy on me!!! I am a musician that almost majored in Met at UMass Lowell. It was almost a coin toss but music won in the end. I did go to the met lab sometimes though!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I'm not really anticipating much outta this upcoming week winter "fun" wise. I guess the biggest most satisfying win we can hope for is "getting the ground white" and keeping it that way for a bit. Give us a solid inch or two then give us another of the same and keep the landscape white. I mean really once the ground is white for all you can see, (and we know 2-3' totals are out of the question) does it really matter if it's 3 inches or 6 inches. Lets just get out of this week of "opportunity and fun" that we have been waiting for with several days of snow cover....and maybe a record low in some spots Snow cover does wonders for your mood as a snow lover. If you can get out of the week with the grass covered (2" or more) I'd take it and run. It surprised me how much it helps to make it feel like winter with even 3-4" on the ground this time of the year. It has been great having the grass covered since Nov 23. You are right that it doesn't have to be 6+...just put any amount of white on the ground and it really changes the landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro literally has the whole country below normal next week...at least 95% of it..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro literally has the whole country below normal next week...at least 95% of it..lol. Haha I noticed that on the GGEM too...the H85 freezing line is so far south from like Georgia to Arizona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Euro literally has the whole country below normal next week...at least 95% of it..lol. We'll have to follow the cold shot middle of next week. Today's run has our coldest temps in December in probably 25 years...the Dec 1988 outbreak. Dec '89 didn't have a peak outbreak as strong as the '88 one even though its was one of the most ridiculous months ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Gotchya. So they look good though? Yep, nice ridging into western AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 We'll have to follow the cold shot middle of next week. Today's run has our coldest temps in December in probably 25 years...the Dec 1988 outbreak. Dec '89 didn't have a peak outbreak as strong as the '88 one even though its was one of the most ridiculous months ever. Impressive stuff. That airmass should traverse snowpack too helping it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Impressive stuff. That airmass should traverse snowpack too helping it out.Plus we'll have pack right to SE Mass coast which will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Impressive stuff. That airmass should traverse snowpack too helping it out. It has BOS around 0F for Dec 12th. BOS hasn't hit 0F in the month of December since 1983...which was not until Christmas. Nevermind Dec 12th. They did hit 2F on Dec 12th, 1988 and 4F on Dec 22 and 23, 1989. 5F on Dec 31, 1996. Hard to believe the magnitude right now, but it shows you what kind of context it would be if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Impressive stuff. That airmass should traverse snowpack too helping it out.Plus we'll have pack right to SE Mass coast which will help Why would pack to your east matter? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Why would pack to your east matter? lolNot to me but it matters for you guys down there. I root for winter for almost everyone. Almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It has BOS around 0F for Dec 12th. BOS hasn't hit 0F in the month of December since 1983...which was not until Christmas. Nevermind Dec 12th. They did hit 2F on Dec 12th, 1988 and 4F on Dec 22 and 23, 1989. 5F on Dec 31, 1996. Hard to believe the magnitude right now, but it shows you what kind of context it would be if it verified. What are 850s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What are 850s? They make it to about -20C or slightly colder at the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest user123 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yep, nice ridging into western AK. Hrm..... Does it look to anyone else like it might suggest another arctic dump out west, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Snow cover does wonders for your mood as a snow lover. If you can get out of the week with the grass covered (2" or more) I'd take it and run. It surprised me how much it helps to make it feel like winter with even 3-4" on the ground this time of the year. It has been great having the grass covered since Nov 23. You are right that it doesn't have to be 6+...just put any amount of white on the ground and it really changes the landscape. powderfreak thanks for response. I think we get caught up in the how much we gonna get stuff and when is the next blockbuster (which is fine when it is just one of a few perspectives you look at the winter thru) but often it seems lost what "covering the ground with snow" can do for the winter lover's "mood" when all you can see is white (like when I was in Vermont the other week, and it was maybe 1.5-3 inches) it doesn't really matter it could have been 10 inches for all I care, it looks like winter and when the cold hits your face you know it's winter. It's more than good enough for me. (especially w KU's off the table) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 EURO, GGEM and GFS all show several snow chances including the Dec 9th event as well. It will be interesting to see things unfold, as most of the events are out to sea on the models in the 168 hour range plus. Not to be alarmed this will likely change several times over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 powderfreak thanks for response. I think we get caught up in the how much we gonna get stuff and when is the next blockbuster (which is fine when it is just one of a few perspectives you look at the winter thru) but often it seems lost what "covering the ground with snow" can do for the winter lover's "mood" when all you can see is white (like when I was in Vermont the other week, and it was maybe 1.5-3 inches) it doesn't really matter it could have been 10 inches for all I care, it looks like winter and when the cold hits your face you know it's winter. It's more than good enough for me. (especially w KU's off the table) I view it as three tranches: 0-1.5": Still a lot of grass visible, festive but can be a bit ugly. 1.5"-6": Nice to have a lot of snow on the ground, sometimes hard to tell how much but it can look very picturesque 6"+: This is when the greed factor begins and you want to pile it up, sometimes to no end. I especially get greedy when there is over a foot on the ground, you are yearning for that once every 10 or 20 year snow cover in which you notice things you have noticed before about the snow and it even changes landscapes and how some buildings look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Man Euro did a complete 180..Talk about hammer time again days 9-10. can't touch this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Man Euro did a complete 180..Talk about hammer time again days 9-10. can't touch this So the warm up is off with today's Euro? Glad to hear that. Seems like a see saw on the 10+ in these runs. One day they seem 'torchy' in the 10+, the next chillin'. I will take chillin' and snowy all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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