Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I've ribbed on him before..lol, but it's all in Good fun. My point was serious though....the gfs will always have a bomb even in the ****tiest winter. Hard to remember when it didn't . Speaking of bombs , holy Scandanavia. Don't know anything about Europe but there teleconnections must be oppo of ours, nothing like a hurricane in Dec. bombogenisis to the max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Seeing all those hard freeze warnings in Cali is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 You are a winner lately dude, nice explanation. Jumping on folks posts seems to be the in thing amongst a few mod mets and some mets. Thanks for breaking out of that mold. Making fun of people because they are not as educated as some apparently is cool in some circles. I appreciate you taking the time to explain to him and others what is wrong rather than throwing out the get a ha ha one liner. Some post here that it's not the same and if you talk warm you get jumped on, fact is if you post anything contrary to some they get their panties In a bunch and resort to punch lines. Again thank you and great job on the long term pattern recognition. You really are getting good at that.I think James will survive a little weenie ribbing...it's always been an initiation. I believe he went to Plymouth and I'm sure he'll get the hang of how things work around here discussion wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I remember even after NY the pattern started to look better on the ensembles and weeklies for later January. January wasn't that snowy locally, but it became much cooler heading through the month. Those ensembles were the reason why I didn't launch myself in front of a 737 taking off at Logan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 James is already one step better than Kevin. At least he looks at models instead of weenie snowfall map tweets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 James is already one step better than Kevin. At least he looks at models instead of weenie snowfall map tweets. He looks at upper levels too. That's promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hey James, I know what you are trying to say about it being more active, but the GFS in December 2011 did the same thing and we know how that winter ended up. That's like saying the Canadian shows it becoming more busy in the tropics because it has a day 10 hurricane hitting SNE. It always has a tropical system threatening SNE.You are a winner lately dude, nice explanation. Jumping on folks posts seems to be the in thing amongst a few mod mets and some mets. Thanks for breaking out of that mold. Making fun of people because they are not as educated as some apparently is cool in some circles. I appreciate you taking the time to explain to him and others what is wrong rather than throwing out the get a ha ha one liner. Some post here that it's not the same and if you talk warm you get jumped on, fact is if you post anything contrary to some they get their panties In a bunch and resort to punch lines. Again thank you and great job on the long term pattern recognition. You really are getting good at that. When did you become the godfather of weather forums? Good lord. Leon Lett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 You make snownh look like wes junker. i have not laughed that hard in years. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Seeing all those hard freeze warnings in Cali is very impressive. Congrats Tijuana, Mexico at 12 hours on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Congrats Tijuana, Mexico at 12 hours on GFS. LOL almost that time where you text me the euro pulling a 2004 David Ortiz after the GFS and Ukie pull a 2003 Aaron Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 About the same time you became a different kind of poster I guess. We all bust chops, but there's never an awful insult hurled at someone. Its not hard to see why a 300hr gfs prog will get some comments thrown your way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Why am I under a freezing rain advisory? I didnt realize anything was supposed to move through tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Thu AM is damn cold on the euro...2m temps below zero for the interior north of the Pike with the ridge axis overhead. Then by d10 it's all flushed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Thu AM is damn cold on the euro...2m temps below zero for the interior north of the Pike with the ridge axis overhead. Then by d10 it's all flushed out. Yeah by d10 (including ensembles) Canadian currier and Ives and American Hawaii 5-0. What do 11-15 look like on euro ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Can already see the worry coming from folks day 10 and beyond. Relax folks..this is a different animal this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 It will be interesting to see if the retrogression of the -EPO ridge that the models are showing is a hint of the January and February pattern. The 8 closest December composite since 1950 featured westward shift in the ridge position closer to the Aleutians during January and February. DEC.png JF.png I agree. I suspect that it is a hint of sorts and that we're in the latter stages of the transition toward what will become the predominant winter pattern. It will be interesting to see how things evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yeah by d10 (including ensembles) Canadian currier and Ives and American Hawaii 5-0. What do 11-15 look like on euro ens? Walking the line still. Dateline ridge weakens, but heights rose a bit over the west. There is a ton of spread, but the 00z GEFS also caved a bit too. With any luck, we may try to pop some PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Can already see the worry coming from folks day 10 and beyond. Relax folks..this is a different animal this year. Can you provide any meteorological reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2013 Author Share Posted December 5, 2013 Can you provide any meteorological reasoning? -EPO staying just shifting west. Pacific trumps Atlantic. Remember that next troll time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 So we move more WPO. We need either a stronger ridge or some Atlantic blocking. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Retro EPO ridge isn't a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 It's clear from looking at the long range ensembles that we're riding the line. To avoid a torching, I think we need some help from our nearby ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think there are some scary things in the long range, but that is normal. Walking the line isn't bad up here, some years there is no line to walk. I also think that we have gotten Canada very cold, filled with snow and this is a bit of an insurance policy, at least for a while. We've also accomplished the refrigeration of Canada with no help from the Atlantic. At some point we will get some blocking in the favored positions. It may not last long but it will come at some point I would think. If there is an east based -NAO or Scandi block, and the EPO retros, would not the Scandanavian block or east based NAO also retro? And then at some point late in the season wouldn't we likely get a -AO? We only need brief periods of blocking to get decent storms. KUs are nice but I'll take 8 SWFEs. Sorry to be so optimistic and so weenie but I think there is at least a little logic here, at least from a probability, climo and pattern recognition perspective. Go ahead, slap me down. I can take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I think there are some scary things in the long range, but that is normal. Walking the line isn't bad up here, some years there is no line to walk. I also think that we have gotten Canada very cold, filled with snow and this is a bit of an insurance policy, at least for a while. We've also accomplished the refrigeration of Canada with no help from the Atlantic. At some point we will get some blocking in the favored positions. It may not last long but it will come at some point I would think. If there is an east based -NAO or Scandi block, and the EPO retros, would not the Scandanavian block or east based NAO also retro? And then at some point late in the season wouldn't we likely get a -AO? We only need brief periods of blocking to get decent storms. KUs are nice but I'll take 8 SWFEs. Sorry to be so optimistic and so weenie but I think there is at least a little logic here, at least from a probability, climo and pattern recognition perspective. Go ahead, slap me down. I can take it. Nah, it's fine...nobody really knows. As long as the PV is on our side, we have a shot..esp NNE for sure. I am a little concerned about the dateline ridge breaking down. It's definitely being delayed...but I'm still thinking it's not a prolonged relaxation if it does occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 You know I think psychologically, things will shift on this board once there is solid snowcover. Hopefully that happens by Monday. When the landscape is white, good things tend to happen later. I like that you think the EPO retro would be short-lived. There have been hints of NAO ridging and at some point that will probably happen. As you said, when the EPO retros, there are hints of blocking in the west and that could provide a little meridional flow and tap some moisture in the south. With cold in Canada we would only need a little help to make that a snow storm. Perhaps that gets us our white xmas and then we get a little early jan nao help with the EPO comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 True story: I refuse to travel to warm wx during winter like going to Florida where I could stay for free with different people. After the warm years like 2 years ago I kick myself. This is why I welcome warmth when it's all over in the spring and summer. Overall I'm still optimistic for a huge winter but I think we wade through some doo doo 12/15-22. I also remember the huge cutter capping a arm period 12/23/93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 definitely a lot of question marks after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest user123 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hey everybody! I've been following the thread for a while now and felt so helpless that I decided I'd create an account and get in on the dialogue! I'm EXTREMELY green when it comes to weather/forecasting, but that doesn't mean I don't find it super interesting and really want to learn more. Nice to finally be a part of the "group"! (Go easy on me though...please ) I know its been harped on quite a bit, but what is the DEAL for mid-month? Sure, signals point one way it seems, but they don't seem to be as strong as some thought they would be...and also the models seem to disagree a bit as well. Like I said I'm new to this, so any info/insight would be greatly appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hey everybody! I've been following the thread for a while now and felt so helpless that I decided I'd create an account and get in on the dialogue! I'm EXTREMELY green when it comes to weather/forecasting, but that doesn't mean I don't find it super interesting and really want to learn more. Nice to finally be a part of the "group"! (Go easy on me though...please ) I know its been harped on quite a bit, but what is the DEAL for mid-month? Sure, signals point one way it seems, but they don't seem to be as strong as some thought they would be...and also the models seem to disagree a bit as well. Like I said I'm new to this, so any info/insight would be greatly appreciated. welcome to the crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest user123 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 welcome to the crazy. It's an honor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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