December Pattern Disco- 2013

[powderfreak]

Well I think I mentioned that this is all epo driven and we lose that, we're toast unless we get blocking and even that will fail until we reload canada with a new epo.

It is sort of scary what would happen if we lose the epo cold and have no Atlantic blocking. Luckily it looks like we hold it for a while though...maybe enough time to get the Atlantic situated.

[CoastalWx]

 It's a tough call. I will say unlike 2011 when it seemed like no matter what started to improve we still torched....it's different this time around with the PV in our backyard, so to speak. Even if we relax...I think we'll have enough cold over the border to perhaps set up at least the interior for marginal events. I also think it would be a transient feature because there are signs of the pattern improving again after any relaxation. It's also quite possible we are like 60 miles far enough north to avoid disasters and we end up riding SWFEs left and right. Part of me leans to some relaxation...but I have no idea where and how the whole storm track sets up.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Up and down on the merry go round

[CoastalWx]

Up and down on the merry go round

I looked at the individual ensemble members in the 18z run and it looks active with SWFE, couple of cutters and miller bs. Just speaking of what the members show, not that I expect all of that To occur in 2 weeks.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I looked at the individual ensemble members in the 18z run and it looks active with SWFE, couple of cutters and miller bs. Just speaking of what the members show, not that I expect all of that To occur in 2 weeks.

I was mostly just meaning temps. Quite a bit of yo yo-ing the last few weeks and probably in the next few

[jamesnichols1989]

THe operational GFS showed a monster bomb impacting the East Coast, but its offshore for a major impact I think its around 300 hours out, which is pretty far out, but it goes to show you the dynamics that are beginning to show up with winter around the corner and the kind of cold that is setting up shop.  The storm deepens to around 946mb near Greenland, we haven't seen those type of numbers in awhile, and while if some have than this one is different sign as the NAO tries to near Neutral.

[dendrite]

THe operational GFS showed a monster bomb impacting the East Coast, but its offshore for a major impact I think its around 300 hours out, which is pretty far out, but it goes to show you the dynamics that are beginning to show up with winter around the corner and the kind of cold that is setting up shop.  The storm deepens to around 946mb near Greenland, we haven't seen those type of numbers in awhile, and while if some have than this one is different sign as the NAO tries to near Neutral.

You're going to get peppered with hot dog buns analyzing a faux storm in 300+ hour fantasy land.

[N. OF PIKE]

How many buns is that worth?

[joey2002]

How many buns is that worth?

 

300+ lol

[jamesnichols1989]

ANalyzing fine bring on the dogs, but I think it's a sign that the next big storm is around the 14-17th period.  The pattern reloads then and the NAO tries to dive negative but ends up neutral, transition periods of the NAO have led to major storms in the past.

[weathafella]

Bring back the tags.

[Brian5671]

Maybe it's trolling but it's no different than someone saying the end of Dec will be very cold.

if someone said that, no problem, however if you discuss warmth, you are trolling.... which in retrospect made 11-12 amusing since there was no way to spin the end to end blowtorch to cold/snow

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

THe operational GFS showed a monster bomb impacting the East Coast, but its offshore for a major impact I think its around 300 hours out, which is pretty far out, but it goes to show you the dynamics that are beginning to show up with winter around the corner and the kind of cold that is setting up shop. The storm deepens to around 946mb near Greenland, we haven't seen those type of numbers in awhile, and while if some have than this one is different sign as the NAO tries to near Neutral.

It almost always shows an EC bomb at the end of every op run. Pay zero attention to it.

[jamesnichols1989]

No all they want is a model providing proof that a warm up is coming.  I backed up my thoughts with several GFS runs which all show a potential storm near the 16-17th of DEC.  Very cold air present in this period as well, although it is Day 12-13.

[jamesnichols1989]

It almost always shows an EC bomb at the end of every op run. Pay zero attention to it.

 

This one is different, its the real deal in my opinion, which again is an opinion, and this thread is nothing short of opinions.

[dendrite]

This one is different, its the real deal in my opinion, which again is an opinion, and this thread is nothing short of opinions.

You make snownh look like wes junker.

[ORH_wxman]

You make snownh look like wes junker.

 

 

   

[weathafella]

You make snownh look like wes junker.

OMFG!!!

[CoastalWx]

[CoastalWx]

Hey James, I know what you are trying to say about it being more active, but the GFS in December 2011 did the same thing and we know how that winter ended up. That's like saying the Canadian shows it becoming more busy in the tropics because it has a day 10 hurricane hitting SNE. It always has a tropical system threatening SNE.

[78Blizzard]

You make snownh look like wes junker.

Wes actually had this to say earlier today about the current storm out west and its possible impact on DC area:

 

“The cold air looks like it will hold on longer than I was thinking yesterday as the models are holding the [arctic] surface high to our north in longer putting it in a very favorable position for cold air damming [draining south over area] during the day on Sunday,” says Wes Junker, Capital Weather Gang winter weather expert. “This is now definitely a system to monitor as there is potential for a period of snow and for icing problems lingering into Sunday night especially west of the city.”

[Ginx snewx]

Hey James, I know what you are trying to say about it being more active, but the GFS in December 2011 did the same thing and we know how that winter ended up. That's like saying the Canadian shows it becoming more busy in the tropics because it has a day 10 hurricane hitting SNE. It always has a tropical system threatening SNE.

You are a winner lately dude, nice explanation. Jumping on folks posts seems to be the in thing amongst a few mod mets and some mets. Thanks for breaking out of that mold. Making fun of people because they are not as educated as some apparently is cool in some circles. I appreciate you taking the time to explain to him and others what is wrong rather than throwing out the get a ha ha one liner. Some post here that it's not the same and if you talk warm you get jumped on, fact is if you post anything contrary to some they get their panties In a bunch and resort to punch lines. Again thank you and great job on the long term pattern recognition. You really are getting good at that.

[CoolMike]

Hey James, I know what you are trying to say about it being more active, but the GFS in December 2011 did the same thing and we know how that winter ended up. That's like saying the Canadian shows it becoming more busy in the tropics because it has a day 10 hurricane hitting SNE. It always has a tropical system threatening SNE.

 

For this reason hearing about day 10 storms on the GFS scares the heck out of me.  If people on this board need to go out to day 10 to find fantasy storms to talk about then the overall look must be bad.  2011-2012 was my first year trolling this board or paying much attention to the weather and it was heartbreaking how many fantasy storms collapsed on my head.  Every week there was a new threat of some monster storm and a pattern change.

 

How's this for a discussion point:  This year the odds of a KU are less (much less?) than this time last year based on the current teleconnector forecasting.  True?

[ORH_wxman]

For this reason hearing about day 10 storms on the GFS scares the heck out of me.  If people on this board need to go out to day 10 to find fantasy storms to talk about then the overall look must be bad.  2011-2012 was my first year trolling this board or paying much attention to the weather and it was heartbreaking how many fantasy storms collapsed on my head.  Every week there was a new threat of some monster storm and a pattern change.

 

How's this for a discussion point:  This year the odds of a KU are less (much less?) than this time last year based on the current teleconnector forecasting.  True?

 

 

Yes.

[Ginx snewx]

Yes.

This time last year? Did you think we had a shot? I thought so in mid Jan, prior was sketchy as to if the pattern would evolve.

[CoastalWx]

Agree with Will. It just seems like this year is a +AO year, but I've seen grumblings of a poss flip in February. I'm not so sure, but perhaps it's possible. It only takes a brief window of a -NAO.

[CoolMike]

I guess it was closer to the middle of December but middle and late december looked really good last year.  I remember tracking 3 big potential storms.  It even produced for the northern part of CNE and all of NNE.   The storm just after christmas was 10 miles from giving my neighborhood great snows but at least it gave the mountains near me lots of snow.

 

Early January looked less good as it appeared we would 'waste' all the cold without any systems to track.  

 

The big storm was a blast and the end of February all the stars aligned for an incredible March in my opinion.

 

Edit: oops - silly mistake : )

[CoastalWx]

You are a winner lately dude, nice explanation. Jumping on folks posts seems to be the in thing amongst a few mod mets and some mets. Thanks for breaking out of that mold. Making fun of people because they are not as educated as some apparently is cool in some circles. I appreciate you taking the time to explain to him and others what is wrong rather than throwing out the get a ha ha one liner. Some post here that it's not the same and if you talk warm you get jumped on, fact is if you post anything contrary to some they get their panties In a bunch and resort to punch lines. Again thank you and great job on the long term pattern recognition. You really are getting good at that.

I've ribbed on him before..lol, but it's all in

Good fun. My point was serious though....the gfs will always have a bomb even in the ****tiest winter.

[ORH_wxman]

This time last year? Did you think we had a shot? I thought so in mid Jan, prior was sketchy as to if the pattern would evolve.

 

 

Definitely. I was even more bullish by our GTG on January 12th.

 

This year looks quite hostile for a KU with the +AO and +NAO...doesn't mean we can't get one...esp if we sneak a -NAO period in there somewhere. But I'd hedge toward SWFEs and clippers for trying to get our snow.

[Ginx snewx]

Agree with Will. It just seems like this year is a +AO year, but I've seen grumblings of a poss flip in February. I'm not so sure, but perhaps it's possible. It only takes a brief window of a -NAO.

Agre on all points, just takes a window. Pretty much unpredictable, as you know some pretty incredible storms have happened when the stars were previously misaligned all winter.