Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 the euro ens mean looks hideous after day 10Have you ever posted anything but that since late Oct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Have you ever posted anything but that since late Oct?Does hideous to him mean cold and white? He should hate that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 i see a strong vortex centered over the CAA with above normal heights over most of the US extending into the central atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 the euro ens mean looks hideous after day 10 Yes - warmer for sure but Canada remains very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yes - warmer for sure but Canada remains very cold.Yeah...it's not ideal, but as long as the pattern is active there will be chances at our latitude...they just may be messy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yeah...it's not ideal, but as long as the pattern is active there will be chances at our latitude...they just may be messy though. Not great for big storms and probably not great for SNE but I think up your way it's an OK pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Its a very low confidence ensemble mean on the Euro....the spaghetti plots are a disaster after D10...even more than usually is expected for the long range. I don't think this is a surprise though based on the discussion here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Its a very low confidence ensemble mean on the Euro....the spaghetti plots are a disaster after D10...even more than usually is expected for the long range. I don't think this is a surprise though based on the discussion here. Seems like models are in pretty good agreement with Canada remaining quite chilly and the Pacific becoming not as favorable for cold intrusions deep into CONUS - and possibly a warm setup for CONUS with the Pac jet ramping up into the Pac NW. Not a whole lot more to say at this juncture. The people rooting for extreme cold and snow continuing are just as silly (and annoying) as the people claiming we'll torch D10 and beyond. My gut feeling is that after a cold period we relax some and to be honest nothing about this pattern (either next week or beyond) looks particularly good for snow lovers in most of SNE barring a well timed SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 A lot of uncertainty in the pattern after 12/15...that is about all you can say at this point. The arctic freeze will relax some, that is probably a given, but what happens after that relaxation is still well up in the air, including just how much of a "relaxation" we get (i.e. how much we warm).I think there are two main factors that will influence our sensible weather:1) Eastward progression of cold air following the -EPO block. We've released a tremendously cold air mass into the Canadian Prairies, but this manifests itself as a rare Great Basin arctic high rather than spilling down the Plains in the classic McFarland signature. 850s are colder in California than NYC. We have to see if the cold progresses east from the frigid western source like December 2007 or stays west like the historic 1972 outbreak. 2) Position of ridge in long term. Most models maintain above average heights near AK, but the exact location is critical. The current position allows for a -PNA and keeps the SE ridge intact, putting New England on borderline for snow like 12/19/08. Any further west and you get a GOA low and PAC jet. If the ridge shifts east towards Yukon we can have a cold snowy stretch like Jan 2009 which finished -4 in NYC with a region wide winter event on 1/28/09(had 13" in Middlebury and 6.5" Dobbs Ferry)... We walk a fine line but the -EPO that produces a mediocre December usually produces a great January if it holds as the jet stream naturally migrates south. Many Nina years with a favorable PAC have a nice January like '09 and '11... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Seems a good period overall for all of us in New Eng for snow and ice. It's nice to see most mets excited too as we move thru the rest of month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Seems a good period overall for all of us in New Eng for snow and ice. It's nice to see most mets excited too as we move thru the rest of month Eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Eh?i don't think its historic cold or epic snows by any means but certainly many wintry events on tap thru the holidays. I think most places would see at least 10 inches or more by end of month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Seems a good period overall for all of us in New Eng for snow and ice. It's nice to see most mets excited too as we move thru the rest of month ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 ugh.Good post. Thanks for adding to duscussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 i don't think its historic cold or epic snows by any means but certainly many wintry events on tap thru the holidays. I think most places would see at least 10 inches or more by end of month That doesn't sound unreasonable, even if it comes in a bunch of 1-4" events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 That doesn't sound unreasonable, even if it comes in a bunch of 1-4" events.Not at all. I don't think anyone is expecting a monster Dec. but a nice wintry month seems in the cards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think we torch late December and the departures may be as impressive as next weeks cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think we torch late December and the departures may be as impressive as next weeks cold Any reason why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Really cooled down and wind spiked here in cid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I think we torch late December and the departures may be as impressive as next weeks cold What's your reasoning besides your trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Doesn't anyone recall him trolling all last winter calling for torch? I think he was banned and came back with slightly diff name. Maybe Dendrite can check ip addy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Any reason why?EPO looks to go positive I still see no signs of any blocking and once we cut of the cold source its PAC jet city with a SE ridge. This 3 weeks out after next weeks cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Not at all. I don't think anyone is expecting a monster Dec. but a nice wintry month seems in the cards Yeah it probably won't be a 36-inch month, but I don't think it's too much to expect 10" or more cumulative for the interior in Dec especially with the cold we'll have lurking nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Any reason why? Epo looks to go positive I still see no signs of any blocking DVD once we cut of the child source its PAC jet city with a SE ridge Fair enough. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 What's your reasoning besides your trolling. Maybe it's trolling but it's no different than someone saying the end of Dec will be very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Maybe it's trolling but it's no different than someone saying the end of Dec will be very cold. Good point, at least the reasons given were plausible. Unfortunately anyone who says it'll be warm and snow free even with good points will be burned on these forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Good point, at least the reasons given were plausible. Unfortunately anyone who says it'll be warm and snow free even with good points will be burned on these forums. that's the truth. unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Well I think I mentioned that this is all epo driven and we lose that, we're toast unless we get blocking and even that will fail until we reload canada with a new epo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 we've been under atlantic driven winters, it seems, since the late '00s....a pacific driven one is bound to happen, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Good point, at least the reasons given were plausible. Unfortunately anyone who says it'll be warm and snow free even with good points will be burned on these forums.I disagreeI think he made valid points. No problem with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.