Tropopause_Fold Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yeah they have done pretty well. They will not pick out specifics more than 6-7 days out usually, but you can get a general feel. Often a "warm" pattern after a cold one might consist of a couple "cheap cold" days where we are stuck under an inversion and the daily departures are close to average, and then we spike up with a +15 day before the cold front comes through to reset the airmass. Conversly, a cold week after a warm one sometimes consists of a couple "cheap warmth" type days where we get a midnight high temp the first day and then sunshine with a downslope wind on another that pumps up the maxes in a few spots. Regardless, next week looks pretty darn cold on the whole and then it gets interesting for the week of Dec 15-21...I could see that one going either way right now. yeah agree. unless it's a full on assault of arctic air or a flat out brutal torch, you'll always get those couple of days that "don't fit" the general theme in terms of departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Tons of frost on my hood as well. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Now that's a stout pv at hour 138! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Leon's beating his chest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 No real notable changes on the GFS for the 12/9 event. That event has been remarkably stable on the models for the past 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Here's a new one for me. Schools herein cedar rapids had a two hour delay today due to dense fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Here's a new one for me. Schools herein cedar rapids had a two hour delay today due to dense fog. I can only think of 1 place in New England that would do that. If I type it I might get a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I can only think of 1 place in New England that would do that. If I type it I might get a warning Rhymes with Bawlin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 My guess is there's traveling via highways to school in Cedar Rapids? Fog with 0 visibility is pretty dangerous. Furthermore, a delay means it's highly likely that conditions normalize later in the am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 No real notable changes on the GFS for the 12/9 event. That event has been remarkably stable on the models for the past 24-36 hours. Actually can go back 4 days on the GFS... yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Rhymes with Bawlin Holland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Nice storm on the gfs at 300hrs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 So GFS hammers cold next week but most intensely west of us. Then in clown range we stay on the sweet side of the boundary getting assaulted with systems. Let's lock this run up including our snow thump to pl to rain or other frozen followed by the hounds. Lock it please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Nice storm on the gfs at 300hrs.... Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looks to me overall that there is still a cutter-freeze-cutter-freeze pattern in play, but the Dec 9 system just happens to have a polar high timed well through SE Can and NNE. Without that and this would be among the more frustrating type of play-outs known to winter weather enthusiasts... Underscored by the magnitude of cold that is available to the U.S. just over the border, and has incurred into the Plains. For now that looks like your standard-issue model POS system that goes from 3" of snow, to a quarter inch of ice, to ending as cold rain, drizzle, while inhibition forces a triple point around LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GFS does this by developing nao and allowing the Aleutians ridge to go sky high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looks to me overall that there is still a cutter-freeze-cutter-freeze pattern in play, but the Dec 9 system just happens to have a polar high timed well through SE Can and NNE. Without that and this would be among the more frustrating type of play-outs known to winter weather enthusiasts... Underscored by the magnitude of cold that is available to the U.S. just over the border, and has incurred into the Plains. For now that looks like your standard-issue model POS system that goes from 3" of snow, to a quarter inch of ice, to ending as cold rain, drizzle, while inhibition forces a triple point around LI. I was thinking the same thing, but its at least possibly the first more widespread wintery event of the winter. If that high wasn't there to the north, it definitely would be the ol' cold/dry then cutter then cold/dry. Its essentially still a cutter, but just so cold below the mid-level warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Looks like this event will happen to some extent so it's probably time to separate it out into its own thread. Someone else can have the honors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Any GOA troughing looks pretty transient on the 12z GEFS. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Any GOA troughing looks pretty transient on the 12z GEFS. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html at least that can keep us in a cold cutter cold pattern after a week of "Hopefully fun" next week maybe we can get the damn PNA on our side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GEFS are pretty nice in the Dec 17-20 time frame after a relaxation around 12/15ish. They begin pushing the EPO/WPO ridging back east and there is a more neutralish NAO. We'll see how the Euro ensembles look today. Even during the relaxation period, there is brutal cold just to the north so it wouldn't take much to bust cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GEFS are pretty nice in the Dec 17-20 time frame after a relaxation around 12/15ish. They begin pushing the EPO/WPO ridging back east and there is a more neutralish NAO. We'll see how the Euro ensembles look today. Even during the relaxation period, there is brutal cold just to the north so it wouldn't take much to bust cold. Yes a very nice look continues, great to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 GEFS are pretty nice in the Dec 17-20 time frame after a relaxation around 12/15ish. They begin pushing the EPO/WPO ridging back east and there is a more neutralish NAO. We'll see how the Euro ensembles look today. Even during the relaxation period, there is brutal cold just to the north so it wouldn't take much to bust cold. I agree. That cold is unbelievable, haven't seen stuff like that in a while. Nice to have it so close by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro ensembles looked to try and reshuffle the deck as they lose the dateline ridging in the extended, but heights try to rise north of Hawaii. I'm not quite sure why they are so difference from the GEFS and GEM ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Euro ensembles looked to try and reshuffle the deck as they lose the dateline ridging in the extended, but heights try to rise north of Hawaii. I'm not quite sure why they are so difference from the GEFS and GEM ensembles. Yeah the 00z run started this trend...though they are not in a hurry to torch us. We stay fairly cold...even though we do see some relaxation post 12/15. Almost keeps a bit of troughing over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Cold breeds cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Cold breeds cold? A lot of uncertainty in the pattern after 12/15...that is about all you can say at this point. The arctic freeze will relax some, that is probably a given, but what happens after that relaxation is still well up in the air, including just how much of a "relaxation" we get (i.e. how much we warm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Yeah the 00z run started this trend...though they are not in a hurry to torch us. We stay fairly cold...even though we do see some relaxation post 12/15. Almost keeps a bit of troughing over us. It looks like that trough over srn Kamchatka wants to try and raise heights in the central and EPAC. Fine by me, but it's weird how the euro ensembles just vaporize this trough and the other guidance still has this after hr 300. Seems weird to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 It looks like that trough over srn Kamchatka wants to try and raise heights in the central and EPAC. Fine by me, but it's weird how the euro ensembles just vaporize this trough and the other guidance still has this after hr 300. Seems weird to me. It just seems like the euro ensembles have a lot of spread and are trying to cook something up in that area. What, I don't know...but maybe a reshuffling. EPAC was better to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 the euro ens mean looks hideous after day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.