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December Pattern Disco- 2013


Damage In Tolland

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That wasn't directed at you (in case you thought it was).  You aren't a Debbie.

 

I was just pointing out, that while we lean to the ween, we also have some who seem eager to let us know the potential bad news...even some mets who post more and quickly when the there is a negative sign.  So the Debs do Deb.  I just think it is a balance and personality issue.

 

Thankfully I am just above all of this, and I always know exactly what is going to happen. Whew!

Since you will be in London, we will cash in. But even if working, London is a totally great city.

Hoarfrost this morning with the closer temp/dew couplet.

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That wasn't directed at you (in case you thought it was).  You aren't a Debbie.

 

I was just pointing out, that while we lean to the ween, we also have some who seem eager to let us know the potential bad news...even some mets who post more and quickly when the there is a negative sign.  So the Debs do Deb.  I just think it is a balance and personality issue.

 

Thankfully I am just above all of this, and I always know exactly what is going to happen. Whew!

 

I didn't take it that way, but I sometimes feel that happens. Anyways, you should be home for the Monday storm!

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Since you will be in London, we will cash in. But even if working, London is a totally great city.

Hoarfrost this morning with the closer temp/dew couplet.

such a bummer....although I am in London monthly and love it.

 

I am thinking it is a classic burst of mod-heavy snow 4-8 inches.  It lays down the permafrost and then we build it.  I think we are off to the races.  Even the pattern negatives have good ways to be positive for us, even moreso up here but you will of course get in on this.  Time for you to buy a place in the far interior, or rent one for 3 months Dec-Feb.

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ughhh I was really liking next week's potential for Monday/Tuesday but now it appears that a primary is going to get going well off to our west.  You have to be kidding me....what crap.  This better not be one of those years where we go from cold to cutter/warm then back to cold.  Ridiculous

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06 GEFS looks decent LR. That Tuesday system is interesting. Front end thumpidity dump then ice then rain. Have to wonder how deep that cold layer is for far interior zones, ice versus sleet.

 

Just looking at some soundings it would appear sleet would be the favorite over freezing rain, however, if the push of WAA at the sfc is slower than what is shown there def could be some freezing rain across NW zones

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ughhh I was really liking next week's potential for Monday/Tuesday but now it appears that a primary is going to get going well off to our west.  You have to be kidding me....what crap.  This better not be one of those years where we go from cold to cutter/warm then back to cold.  Ridiculous

 

 

The primary has looked west for like 2-3 days now. :lol:

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Just maybe it's weak enough so that we can stave off an ML warming for the wintry folks.

 

 

Well its looking like it starts as snow/sleet for most. I doubt the mid-level warming gets completely staved off. Its going to go over to ZR for the interior and RA for the coast.

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The primary has looked west for like 2-3 days now. :lol:

 

I haven't looked in like 2-3 days lol

 

Anyways though, the Euro actually looks like it wants to hold onto the colder air in place a bit longer and looks like it would give some a chance for maybe a quick couple inches before a transition occurs...even down this way.  

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06 GEFS looks decent LR. That Tuesday system is interesting. Front end thumpidity dump then ice then rain. Have to wonder how deep that cold layer is for far interior zones, ice versus sleet.

 

I'll take IP for $100, Alex.  Up here anyway, I'd guess more ice as you head SE toward the pike. 

 

As of now....probably have a different take in 4 hours.

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I'll take IP for $100, Alex.  Up here anyway, I'd guess more ice as you head SE toward the pike. 

 

As of now....probably have a different take in 4 hours.

 

 

There's no way you would only see IP if the current guidance is correct...it gets too warm int he Mid-levels and the cold layer becomes pretty thin. We'll need to trend this solidly colder to stay IP.

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There's no way you would only see IP if the current guidance is correct...it gets too warm int he Mid-levels and the cold layer becomes pretty thin. We'll need to trend this solidly colder to stay IP.

 

I should have clarified that I meant 'mostly', not 'all'.

 

But, I won't argue your interpretation--I know my limitations! :)

 

What's your take on qpf out this way come Friday evening?  Even though I'll be good temp-wise, I think I might get scrooged with the bulk of the wave passing to the east of me.  You on the other hand........may wind up with a few inches on the ground.

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I should have clarified that I meant 'mostly', not 'all'.

 

But, I won't argue your interpretation--I know my limitations! :)

 

What's your take on qpf out this way come Friday evening?  Even though I'll be good temp-wise, I think I might get scrooged with the bulk of the wave passing to the east of me.  You on the other hand........may wind up with a few inches on the ground.

 

 

I'm stunned you feel this way.

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Well its looking like it starts as snow/sleet for most. I doubt the mid-level warming gets completely staved off. Its going to go over to ZR for the interior and RA for the coast.

 

At a minimum.  I would not be surprised to see all of SNE change over to a cold rain.  I'd feel more comfortable if I were up in S NH over to ME with this for an all wintry event.

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can see the value of the ensembles if you think back a week or so ago...they had a good signal that this week would end up on the milder side and next week would be noticeably colder. i would think the first 7 days will average out AN, then good chance next week is solidly BN.

 

 

Yeah they have done pretty well. They will not pick out specifics more than 6-7 days out usually, but you can get a general feel. Often a "warm" pattern after a cold one might consist of a couple "cheap cold" days where we are stuck under an inversion and the daily departures are close to average, and then we spike up with a +15 day before the cold front comes through to reset the airmass.

 

Conversly, a cold week after a warm one sometimes consists of a couple "cheap warmth" type days where we get a midnight high temp the first day and then sunshine with a downslope wind on another that pumps up the maxes in a few spots.

 

 

Regardless, next week looks pretty darn cold on the whole and then it gets interesting for the week of Dec 15-21...I could see that one going either way right now.

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