December Pattern Disco- 2013

[CoastalWx]

Scott ... I really think the -EPO and the AA phase of the N. Pac are dominating factors until further notice.  (GLAAM flips phase to positive and with (-) co-relationship with the EPO, that only strengthens persistent signal).   One countering influence is the MJO maturing in the 3/4 wave space, but I think so long as the WPO remains so locked and in a powerful negative anomaly,  the MJO's potential influence is going to be rather muted.

 

I see a lot of spread (as I am sure you and others are aware) in the individual EOFs for the NAO domain, and "usually" when that happens (per my own experience) there is about equal chances for a given trend line to break down and just wind up wrong.  Right now a lot of members are negative, but can't agree on the degree of departure, and that could just as well be a sign that a -NAO is out there, as not there. Could mean an emerging positive lurks when the members mop end like that.  If tonight's computations show more coherency in that regard I'll get more interested.  The same holds true for the AO for that matter (though I argue the AO is less important for us depending on whether the EPO and NAO are in constructive wave interference).    I wouldn't count on a lot of help from the NAO is all.. though, with those 10-Can anomalies, a deep NW flow might be a little terrifying.  Ha!

 

Seems like the NAO may be more east based which is fine. We can work with that is the Pacfic if ok. It also seems like the PV wants to get disturbed around 50mb. It sort of gets cut off near Greenland as a lobe of cold PV air splits and warms a bit, and then become more elongated and almost kidney bean like with a center over Hudson bay and another in NE Siberia with hints of it trying to split near AK. Nothing really eye opening, but it caught my attention.

[ORH_wxman]

Seems like the NAO may be more east based which is fine. We can work with that is the Pacfic if ok. It also seems like the PV wants to get disturbed around 50mb. It sort of gets cut off near Greenland as a lobe of cold PV air splits and warms a bit, and then become more elongated and almost kidney bean like with a center over Hudson bay and another in NE Siberia with hints of it trying to split near AK. Nothing really eye opening, but it caught my attention.

 

 

Lowering those heights over SE Canada if we can pop an east based -NAO (something a little better than a UK block though) would be a means to avoid a mild spell if the PAC relaxes for a week or so.

[Ginx snewx]

And oh by the wayhttp://www.climatecentral.org/news/for-first-time-in-20-years-cold-records-may-beat-warm-in-u.s-16790

[ORH_wxman]

And oh by the wayhttp://www.climatecentral.org/news/for-first-time-in-20-years-cold-records-may-beat-warm-in-u.s-16790

 

 

There were some pretty staggering cold outbreaks in April and May in the U.S. and then again just this past week.

 

Its pretty much a lock now that the cold records will win out because the next 2 weeks are going to set a ton of records on the cold side.

[CoastalWx]

Lowering those heights over SE Canada if we can pop an east based -NAO (something a little better than a UK block though) would be a means to avoid a mild spell if the PAC relaxes for a week or so.

It's definitely trying. Also I noticed some subtle

ridging over the west and southwest which would want to push troughing east. 00z euro

Ensembles had this too.

[CoastalWx]

There were some pretty staggering cold outbreaks in April and May in the U.S. and then again just this past week.

Its pretty much a lock now that the cold records will win out because the next 2 weeks are going to set a ton of records on the cold side.

Aside from Spring 2010 and 2012 it's been cold there since 2000. -PDO FTW.

[ineedsnow]

And oh by the wayhttp://www.climatecentral.org/news/for-first-time-in-20-years-cold-records-may-beat-warm-in-u.s-16790

[Ginx snewx]

I have been labeled but I will say this its certainly feels like an old time winter.

[powderfreak]

I have been labeled but I will say this its certainly feels like an old time winter.

 

Well I'm not sure what an "old time" winter is (before global warming?) but I did love that November was solidly below normal.  Its very refreshing and labeled or not, your cold calls are working out.  A -2.6 at BTV for a month is borderline incredible considering the the overall warm departures that plague this area recently (6 year average is +2).  Would be even more remarkable to put two of those months together, and it looks like December may have a good shot at below normal if we can get some of those -20C H85 type airmasses in here.

[Ginx snewx]

Well I'm not sure what an "old time" winter is (before global warming?) but I did love that November was solidly below normal. Its very refreshing and labeled or not, your cold calls are working out. A -2.6 at BTV for a month is borderline incredible considering the the overall warm departures that plague this area recently (6 year average is +2). Would be even more remarkable to put two of those months together, and it looks like December may have a good shot at below normal if we can get some of those -20C H85 type airmasses in here.

of course you don't you are 25+ years younger than me. Put it this way, living way down in SRI I spent a lot of time ice skating as a kid. Of course there were bad winters but cold was the norm. What I see is a chance for you to understand what I mean in this upcoming decade.

[weathafella]

:thumbsup:I have been labeled but I will say this its certainly feels like an old time winter.

Sure does. Even non wx folks are noticing.

[ORH_wxman]

of course you don't you are 25+ years younger than me. Put it this way, living way down in SRI I spent a lot of time ice skating as a kid. Of course there were bad winters but cold was the norm. What I see is a chance for you to understand what I mean in this upcoming decade.

 

 

Here is a visal of VT winter temps to help out powderfreak...what stands out are the utter lack of mild winters during the decade of the 1960s. The warmest ones were barely above average:

 

[powderfreak]

of course you don't you are 25+ years younger than me. Put it this way, living way down in SRI I spent a lot of time ice skating as a kid. Of course there were bad winters but cold was the norm. What I see is a chance for you to understand what I mean in this upcoming decade.

lol true. You essentially mean a winter prior to some of the 80s and 90s horror shows, right?

Just curious, why do you think this upcoming decade? I thought the last decade was pretty darn snowy (though not really cold). I still can't believe how BTV averaged like 15" over its long term average between 2000-2011. A nice 20% increase.

[jamesnichols1989]

00z NAM looks very interesting with a third impulse possibly being snow for New England, I don't know if it reaches the coastline, but the third impulse from the Southwest originating in Dallas, TX brings a period of snow for most of New England, especially the interior, I think it gets colder and with that QPF, someone could get 5"+.

[powderfreak]

Here is a visal of VT winter temps to help out powderfreak...what stands out are the utter lack of mild winters during the decade of the 1960s. The warmest ones were barely above average:

That is an awesome graph...how do you produce that so fast? I've already saved it, lol.

That cold spell was timed just right I see for my parents' generation to experience it as a kid. You know sometimes I feel like people just think it was colder/snowier as a kid than it actually was, but if you grew up in the 60s I can tell by that graph it was actually frigid, haha.

Hopefully we can cycle back through a period like that to give some of the global warming stuff a break.

[powderfreak]

00z NAM looks very interesting with a third impulse possibly being snow for New England, I don't know if it reaches the coastline, but the third impulse from the Southwest originating in Dallas, TX brings a period of snow for most of New England, especially the interior, I think it gets colder and with that QPF, someone could get 5"+.

Leon is driving the bus.

[Ginx snewx]

lol true. You essentially mean a winter prior to some of the 80s and 90s horror shows, right?

Just curious, why do you think this upcoming decade? I thought the last decade was pretty darn snowy (though not really cold). I still can't believe how BTV averaged like 15" over its long term average between 2000-2011. A nice 20% increase.

solar

[ORH_wxman]

That is an awesome graph...how do you produce that so fast? I've already saved it, lol.

That cold spell was timed just right I see for my parents' generation to experience it as a kid. You know sometimes I feel like people just think it was colder/snowier as a kid than it actually was, but if you grew up in the 60s I can tell by that graph it was actually frigid, haha.

Hopefully we can cycle back through a period like that to give some of the global warming stuff a break.

 

 

This site has many nice gadgets on it:

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-monitoring/

 

 

 

The 1960s are pretty amazing for their lack of variance in temps...just almost constantly below average. The lone exception is autumn...esp October. The '60s had some absolute torch Octobers but the rest of the months are quite cold. But they don't have those big swings like you see in the 1930s, 1950s, and 1990s...and to a lesser degree in other decades.

[moneypitmike]

Leon is driving the bus.

 

That would be fine.  Of course, as Messenger said (I think he said it) it's 83 hours outside its useful range. 

[weathafella]

lol true. You essentially mean a winter prior to some of the 80s and 90s horror shows, right?

Just curious, why do you think this upcoming decade? I thought the last decade was pretty darn snowy (though not really cold). I still can't believe how BTV averaged like 15" over its long term average between 2000-2011. A nice 20% increase.solar

Solar's a decent thought actually..

[Ginx snewx]

The winters of my formative years in RI

196912 - 197003 29.0°F 1 -3.1°F

197012 - 197103 30.0°F 2 -2.1°F

196212 - 196303 30.5°F 3 -1.6°F

196312 - 196403 31.0°F 4 -1.1°F

196412 - 196503 31.0°F 4 -1.1°F

196712 - 196803 31.1°F 6 -1.0°F

196812 - 196903 31.3°F 7 -0.8°F

196112 - 196203 31.5°F 8 -0.6°F

196612 - 196703 32.5°F 9 0.4°F

196512 - 196603 33.3°F 10 1.2°F

[Tropopause_Fold]

as far as i can tell highest heights in the NH are modeled east of FL in a few days. could be meaningless but could also see where it leads to an unusually fast SW to NE flow across the E US and also slows the eastward progression of any surface boundaries trying to move into the area. something to watch.

[jamesnichols1989]

as far as i can tell highest heights in the NH are modeled east of FL in a few days. could be meaningless but could also see where it leads to an unusually fast SW to NE flow across the E US and also slows the eastward progression of any surface boundaries trying to move into the area. something to watch.

 

 

NAM and GFS both produce a 150+ knot upper level jet around 39 hours as southern jet stream impulse moves towards Dallas, TX.

[jamesnichols1989]

GFS now showing a much colder scenario and the front is further southeast in the Deep South.  This is leading me to believe that the cold air is stronger and denser and the only way for the front to move is further southeast.  It has a lot of precip along the front.  Also possibly a third wave of precip developing over SW AR.

[Ginx snewx]

James got to give you credit, you at least discuss model runs, seems everyone is afraid too lest some snide remark be thrown there way.

[ORH_wxman]

00z GFS is just about perfect in the high location for a prolonged period of frozen over the interior, even after the mid-levels warm. Though there is a decent front end thump for most.

[weathafella]

That's about 6 or more hours of good snow before taint on the gfs.

[weatherMA]

Looks like southern NH would be the place to be. Mostly snow.

[Ginx snewx]

That's about 6 or more hours of good snow before taint on the gfs.

And Yikes on the hounds screaming in after

[Ginx snewx]

There's PFs -20 850 s