weathafella Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Sounds like the long range is not awful and potentially improving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Sounds like the long range is not awful and potentially improving? I would say that is a fair assessment. I don't think it has ever looked awful on the ensembles. There's been OP GFS runs that look awful out in clown range. But it is nice to see that the troughing near AK that was showing up several days ago in the 11-15 has not gotten worse as we get closer. The uncertainty aspect remains, but I'm glad that uncertainty at D15 3 days ago has not turned into a developing furnace at D12 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I would say that is a fair assessment. I don't think it has ever looked awful on the ensembles. There's been OP GFS runs that look awful out in clown range. But it is nice to see that the troughing near AK that was showing up several days ago in the 11-15 has not gotten worse as we get closer. The uncertainty aspect remains, but I'm glad that uncertainty at D15 3 days ago has not turned into a developing furnace at D12 today. definitely not a furnace at day 12...getting milder but not torched. 12-15 look solidly above (at least speaking to 850 anomalies) across the CONUS but there's plenty of cold lurking north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Sounds like the long range is not awful and potentially improving? What seems to be happening is what a few groups had been discussing..that any big mildup or prolonged change to warm just isn't in the cards this month. With the amount of cold around..you just can't go warm this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 icestorm after some snow on the 18z gfs looks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 icestorm after some snow on the 18z gfs looks like it for your area? Or most of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 What seems to be happening is what a few groups had been discussing..that any big mildup or prolonged change to warm just isn't in the cards this month. With the amount of cold around..you just can't go warm this year OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 NYC was -1 on 12/25/1980. That is the record at Central Park for Christmas day. Oops! For some reason I thought the plunge had stopped at zero. Shows what happens when I'm 1,300 miles from my data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 What seems to be happening is what a few groups had been discussing..that any big mildup or prolonged change to warm just isn't in the cards this month. With the amount of cold around..you just can't go warm this year Yes and No. The period to watch because of the GOA troughing hasn't gotten worse. The troughing there has been limited as modeled. It still may give us fits, but it's probably going to be transient as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 most of SNE away from the coast for your area? Or most of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yes and No. The period to watch because of the GOA troughing hasn't gotten worse. The troughing there has been limited as modeled. It still may give us fits, but it's probably going to be transient as well. If that block builds the next 2 weeks..Mary bar the door.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Next week may be interesting if all we get is that inverted nipple of low pressure extending from the parent low. The reason being is because it then leaves a baroclinic zone along the coast for more energy to ride up. Just a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Next week may be interesting if all we get is that inverted nipple of low pressure extending from the parent low. The reason being is because it then leaves a baroclinic zone along the coast for more energy to ride up. Just a possibility. A lot of guidance has shown this today...really for the first time. That would be a bit strange to have that occur. I'll have to check back and see if any similar setup happened in that manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Next week may be interesting if all we get is that inverted nipple of low pressure extending from the parent low. The reason being is because it then leaves a baroclinic zone along the coast for more energy to ride up. Just a possibility. going to be pretty tough for something to beat down those heights east of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 A lot of guidance has shown this today...really for the first time. That would be a bit strange to have that occur. I'll have to check back and see if any similar setup happened in that manner. It's definitely not a high prob, but some signs of it as you said. Just finally taking a look at the models now. The only way I could envision that is if next week turned into more a cutter (more of an interior mess so to speak) and just hung the boundary on the east coast. I can't picture a legit SWFE that would do this, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 going to be pretty tough for something to beat down those heights east of FL. Yeah sure will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 pretty useless at this range but fun to look at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20131203&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CEF&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.845693982933994&mLON=-71.70705132942771&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Oops! For some reason I thought the plunge had stopped at zero. Shows what happens when I'm 1,300 miles from my data. Going off the mean temp on the day, Xmas 1983 has to take the cake, just brutal with a biting wind.. peak gust at newark was 39 mph when it was 2 degrees out The major NY stations: KNYC 7/16 KLGA 3/10 KJFK 2/11 KEWR 2/10 I'm not sure why KNYC is so much "warmer" on this day than other stations I do realize 1980 had a midnight high on christmas, and the day time was spent around 5 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Where's Toronto Blizz he has a slight chance at some FZRA tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I'm looking forward to after the 9th event for another event shortly thereafter. Given the amount of cold surging southward there is a good possibility that we could get some blocking nearing the 16th as the NAO goes negative. However the 9-16th looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Front end thump supported by the GFS skew-t for 138 hrs, but edging towards freezing around 800mb. Awful look at 144. Who doesn't love a good skew-t? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Still 144 hours out, I think it trends colder as the NAO tanks towards next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I'm looking at the CPC ensemble cast members on the NAO charts, not the actual GEFS and EURO ensemble members H5 setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Still 144 hours out, I think it trends colder as the NAO tanks towards next week. I figured you of all people would be hedging towards a warmer solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 No I think the opposite will occur, with the NAO tanking around that timeframe, I think the models trend colder and more progressive in nature with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The euro ensembles and the GEFS almost reversed it seems . The GEFS have a stronger dateline ridge, but also troughing extending offshore from the west coast. Weaker -NAO signal too. I almost like the euro ensembles better as they have more NW flow at H5 coming from western Canada and a more of an east based -NAO. I suppose you can argue the GEFS have more of a trough overhead, but I'm referring to the overall picture. The surface is cooler on the GEFS, but extrapolated past hr 360...I thought the euro ensembles were decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 See for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yeah Scott, it would appear the EURO ensembles have a better look to them with more -NAO east based, and troughing over Hudson Bay in the form of the -AO polar vortex focusing the troughing overhead or slightly west compared to the GEFS ensemble mean which has really no pure -NAO present. They have some ridging, but it's not overwhelming like the EURO ensemble cast mean. What do they look like for the 9th through the 16th period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 See for yourself Euro Ens definitely cooled toward the end of run. Could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 See for yourself. LR.PNG Scott ... I really think the -EPO and the AA phase of the N. Pac are dominating factors until further notice. (GLAAM flips phase to positive and with (-) co-relationship with the EPO, that only strengthens persistent signal). One countering influence is the MJO maturing in the 3/4 wave space, but I think so long as the WPO remains so locked and in a powerful negative anomaly, the MJO's potential influence is going to be rather muted. I see a lot of spread (as I am sure you and others are aware) in the individual EOFs for the NAO domain, and "usually" when that happens (per my own experience) there is about equal chances for a given trend line to break down and just wind up wrong. Right now a lot of members are negative, but can't agree on the degree of departure, and that could just as well be a sign that a -NAO is out there, as not there. Could mean an emerging positive lurks when the members mop end like that. If tonight's computations show more coherency in that regard I'll get more interested. The same holds true for the AO for that matter (though I argue the AO is less important for us depending on whether the EPO and NAO are in constructive wave interference). I wouldn't count on a lot of help from the NAO is all.. though, with those 10-Can anomalies, a deep NW flow might be a little terrifying. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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