mahk_webstah Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Sadly we have had significant and sometimes record breaking cold around with almost nothing to show for it snow wise. I agree with Ryan that the Gfs is hard to misinterpret it's pumping mega PAC air later in the run. Well....it would take awhle I'd think to flood the US (NEUS) and Canada with warm air, and the pattern this year would seem to keep that a brief change. I could see us capitalizing on that kind of pattern shift at least up here, as we might see the pattern regress to the mean again, before it does too much damage. Could some of that mild Pacific air actually help establish some blocking to our north over time? I'm a real optimist this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Jan 2005 blizzard, January/Feb 1994 multiple events, February 2003 (prior to PDII)...those are just the relatively recent examples. There's many more going further back. Big cold doesn't always mean suppression. Feb 79 Feb 83 many KU in the midatlantic are at the front end or during arctic outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 We'll see about mid month. It may get hostile for a while, but there is the possibility of this being shortlived with cold oozing down. We just don't know yet, but don't be surprised if we go on a hiatus for a bit after next week. We won't really know until later this week. Not sure why some are giving Ryan a hard time. honestly all I said was it reminded me of a post he made in early Nov that was exactly like that, never said it was wrong what I did say was the furnace did not include the NE due to NAO state, now if you all are going to be so sensitive, it's duly noted. I will refrain from posting anything contrary to what is posted. Carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Does anyone know if these were good pattern he mentions for us? Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi4m Already showing clients where this pattern may be headed dec 20-Jan 5 given analogs of late Dec 1970, late Jan 2000 credit where credit is due, when most were calling for a torch Nov Wxbell was not, they also sniffed out this upcoming Dec 83 like outbreak very early. 1970 has been a top analog in many of the lists on and off since Sept. If he feels it will continue its not unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 honestly all I said was it reminded me of a post he made in early Nov that was exactly like that, never said it was wrong what I did say was the furnace did not include the NE due to NAO state, now if you all are going to be so sensitive, it's duly noted. I will refrain from posting anything contrary to what is posted. Carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 credit where credit is due, when most were calling for a torch Nov Wxbell was not, they also sniffed out this upcoming Dec 83 outbreak very early. 1970 has been a top analog in many of the lists on and off since Sept. If he feels it will continue its not unreasonable. Eventually a call of his will work out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 We'll need a flip to a -NAO for late Dec 1970 analog to work out...the weeklies hinted at this but it was weak and of course its like week 4 which has little skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Eventually a call of his will work out!hopefully it will. They did school a lot for Nov Joe Daleo has been spectacular this year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 We'll need a flip to a -NAO for late Dec 1970 analog to work out...the weeklies hinted at this but it was weak and of course its like week 4 which has little skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 We'll need a flip to a -NAO for late Dec 1970 analog to work out...the weeklies hinted at this but it was weak and of course its like week 4 which has little skill.yeah would be wonderful, nice seeing the CPC Ens showing it. One thing that sticks out is all LR ens keep Canada in the icebox, always a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 If that ridging can squeeze south like 300 miles into Greenland, it's on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Almost purely a product a UK/Scandanavian block that sets up around D10...that isn't what we'd be looking for to get a late Dec 1970 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Joe B is smart but a shameless shill. Suns out today. A little snow in the wee hours Saturday? Maybe a better system next week? Relaxation week of 12/16 and reload 12/23? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 as seemingly always, the gefs look much more favorable in the long term than the euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 as seemingly always, the gefs look much more favorable in the long term than the euro ens I haven't looked in depth today since I've been extremely busy, but they must have less of a GOA trough by default. Just looking at the mass fields would seem that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean has nearly 200+ straight hours of below freezing weather for all of the northeast. From hour 186 through the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I haven't looked in depth today since I've been extremely busy, but they must have less of a GOA trough by default. Just looking at the mass fields would seem that way. they have it but it's rather brief...and the dateline ridging never really retros at all...in fact if anything by the end of the run it's building east. they also pin the pv further south initially with a bit more ridging into e greenland. all-in-all they just keep more hints at troughing over the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Canadian much colder than GFS and would keep interior all frozen..maybe even close to coast..Not the difference in high placement to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 that is serious cold coming into the plains/lakes/OV early / middle part of next week on the gfs. glad to be in IA now rather than then. I'll take my chances on WI try conditions back at the pit instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 that is serious cold coming into the plains/lakes/OV early / middle part of next week on the gfs. glad to be in IA now rather than then. I'll take my chances on WI try conditions back at the pit instead. The pit has your own bed....can't be overestimated. I'd be happy if I were planning to be in the pit this weekend forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 going to be tough with that trough out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The pit has your own bed....can't be overestimated. I'd be happy if I were planning to be in the pit this weekend forward. guests are always welcomed--I usually have the coffee going, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Historical cold in the long range Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 just saw a snowfall map from the euro we would all have a good amount of snow otg by then Historical cold in the long range Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Historical cold in the long range Euro. eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 just saw a snowfall map from the euro we would all have a good amount of snow otg by then At hour 216 most of the major east coast cities are single digits. Philly West is below zero. Pittsburgh is -10 to -15. These are 2m temps in F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 That's a really cold airmass prior to the 12/9 system. Its going to be a battle to remove the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 That's a really cold airmass prior to the 12/9 system. Its going to be a battle to remove the cold. Verbatim Euro is like 4 or 5 hours of snow to substantial ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 eh? At hour 216 single didgits from Boston to DC, maybe lower teens. Interior is an incebox. Most of PA is below zero. Pitt is -5 to -10F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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