CT Rain Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 sounds like your November 1st post to a tee. Besides that it doesn't show a furnace, seems the NAO AO has a say in that. Meh - looks mild for the lower 48. Not sure how that's controversial because it is mild for the lower 48 as a whole... you can watch the warmth flooding in from the Pacific. Not saying it's right just saying what it shows. And yes it is not mild at D10 for NEUS but I specifically mentioned CONUS. Thanks for adding to the list of reasons why posting here generally isn't fun anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 GFS is a classic "dumbfounding" SWFE. Ugh I would hate that but our friends in S NH and NE Mass would be a big fan I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Meh - looks mild for the lower 48. Not sure how that's controversial because it is mild for the lower 48 as a whole... you can watch the warmth flooding in from the Pacific. Not saying it's right just saying what it shows. And yes it is not mild at D10 for NEUS but I specifically mentioned CONUS. Thanks for adding to the list of reasons why posting here generally isn't fun anymore. alrighty then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Pretty classic CAD event on the GFS...probably many hours of icing in the interior on that after most people get a quick shot of snow to start. Still have to remember this one is 5-6 days out, so there's a lot that can happen with this system. While I really like the high pressure strength/location on guidance right now, it still could end up more east and this ends up a much warmer storm if everything is slowed down and becomes more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 GFS is a classic "dumbfounding" SWFE. Ugh I would hate that but our friends in S NH and NE Mass would be a big fan I think. beware the SE ridge! would almost just prefer this thing wind up into a monster and cut west and really shove the cold eastward. the oozing S and E with time deal is more challenging to cash in on. it keeps events coming, but it also keeps the cold west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 beware the SE ridge! would almost just prefer this thing wind up into a monster and cut west and really shove the cold eastward. the oozing S and E with time deal is more challenging to cash in on. it keeps events coming, but it also keeps the cold west. Don't worry - it shows snow on the follow up wave. We know the odds of that happening are great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 that is serious cold coming into the plains/lakes/OV early / middle part of next week on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Don't worry - it shows snow on the follow up wave. We know the odds of that happening are great I'm not done shoveling that last wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I'm not done shoveling that last wave you mean the one that went from 2-4...to 1-2...to C-1...to changeover to sleet / snow is imminent...to nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 GFS is a classic "dumbfounding" SWFE. Ugh I would hate that but our friends in S NH and NE Mass would be a big fan I think. Why is sleet/ice such a bad thing? Let's lay down snow and then lock it in with plenty of icing. Everyone wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Why is sleet/ice such a bad thing? Let's lay down snow and then lock it in with plenty of icing. Everyone wins Probably would be sleet or rain here. Looks better from ORH on north and east verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Sadly we have had significant and sometimes record breaking cold around with almost nothing to show for it snow wise. I agree with Ryan that the Gfs is hard to misinterpret it's pumping mega PAC air later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Why is sleet/ice such a bad thing? Let's lay down snow and then lock it in with plenty of icing. Everyone wins Yeah but how much snow? Let's be generous and say you got 4-6" then ice. Locking down 4-6" with ice early in the season? Its not January-February. Anything that falls won't be here so long regardless of locale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Probably would be sleet or rain here. Looks better from ORH on north and east verbatim. Right sleet and a big zr icestorm after a few inches of snow.. Fine with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Sadly we have had significant and sometimes record breaking cold around with almost nothing to show for it snow wise. I agree with Ryan that the Gfs is hard to misinterpret it's pumping mega PAC air later in the run. i think ryan was talking about the euro earlier. but yeah, gfs is sort of doing the same general thing. it's the risk of the pattern around mid-month. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yeah but how much snow? Let's be generous and say you got 4-6" then ice. Locking down 4-6" with ice early in the season? Its not January-February. Anything that falls won't be here so long regardless of locale More like 1-3 of snow then big ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 In this situation does snow hold on longer in the east? Or am I just crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Right sleet and a big zr icestorm after a few inches of snow.. Fine with me Hmmm... ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 In this situation does snow hold on longer in the east? Or am I just crazy Not always. Depends upon how strong and the orientation of the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Sadly we have had significant and sometimes record breaking cold around with almost nothing to show for it snow wise. I agree with Ryan that the Gfs is hard to misinterpret it's pumping mega PAC air later in the run. How often does extreme cold ever produce big snow? Hardly never. Lone exception I can think of is 96'. Cold air is dry air and usually accompanied by a strong arctic high pressure system which suppresses everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Sadly we have had significant and sometimes record breaking cold around with almost nothing to show for it snow wise. I agree with Ryan that the Gfs is hard to misinterpret it's pumping mega PAC air later in the run. what time frame are you looking at Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Nice active pattern on the GFS with multiple wintry chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 How often does extreme cold ever produce big snow? Hardly never. Lone exception I can think of is 96'. Cold air is dry air and usually accompanied by a strong arctic high pressure system which suppresses everything. Jan 2005 blizzard, January/Feb 1994 multiple events, February 2003 (prior to PDII)...those are just the relatively recent examples. There's many more going further back. Big cold doesn't always mean suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Big cold doesn't always mean PV overhead either. That might be where the confusion is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 Does anyone know if these were good pattern he mentions for us? Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi4m Already showing clients where this pattern may be headed dec 20-Jan 5 given analogs of late Dec 1970, late Jan 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 GFS is a classic "dumbfounding" SWFE. Ugh I would hate that but our friends in S NH and NE Mass would be a big fan I think. Is that a legitimate AMA approved term? But seriously, what does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 We'll see about mid month. It may get hostile for a while, but there is the possibility of this being shortlived with cold oozing down. We just don't know yet, but don't be surprised if we go on a hiatus for a bit after next week. We won't really know until later this week. Not sure why some are giving Ryan a hard time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 LOL Dec 1970. One would hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Jan 2005 blizzard, January/Feb 1994 multiple events, February 2003 (prior to PDII)...those are just the relatively recent examples. There's many more going further back. Big cold doesn't always mean suppression. That was part of the reason why PDII had so much trouble making it north initially. If you look at the radar loops you can see the northern extent hitting a brick wall. The persistent moisture feed was able to eventually overcome the sinking dry air to the north. Sadly, I was in Orlando during this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Does anyone know if these were good pattern he mentions for us? Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi4m Already showing clients where this pattern may be headed dec 20-Jan 5 given analogs of late Dec 1970, late Jan 2000 his clients are s apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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