CT Rain Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Im sure this will tame vermonts upslope totals Lol Yeah that's just weird - most coops didn't measure like that anyway. Not sure what they want regular observers to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yeah that's just weird - most coops didn't measure like that anyway. Not sure what they want regular observers to do. I guess what confuses me is that we ask the paid observers at airports like CON, PWM, etc to measure every 6 hours if possible, yet COOPs are now only supposed to do it once per 24 hours. If an observer can measure every 6 hours (or 12) why restrict it if it's okay for a larger airport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I guess what confuses me is that we ask the paid observers at airports like CON, PWM, etc to measure every 6 hours if possible, yet COOPs are now only supposed to do it once per 24 hours. If an observer can measure every 6 hours (or 12) why restrict it if it's okay for a larger airport? Yeah - really bizarre. Why keep things inconsistent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yeah - really bizarre. Why keep things inconsistent? Above my pay grade, as the say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Well at least the 11-15 day looked a little better this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Well at least the 11-15 day looked a little better this morning. Euro Ens still like the +EPO though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 I would hedge slightly colder until we actually see cross polar flow cut off. The ridge retrogrades but not far enough to shut off the cross polar flow. So that means our cold intrusions will be potent and likely outweigh the milder periods. Basically the opposite of what happens when we have a general vortex stuck there when the cold shots are wimpy compared to the torch periods. Yeah things although precarious still look like we can be on the right side of the wintry line.Feeling good this morning.. Snow Fri nite/ snow Sunday night and another later next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 55 Friday? If we get sun Thursday can produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 BOX unimpressed... MON-TUE... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES WILL PASS OVER OR NW OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. EITHER OF THESE TRACKS SUGGESTS A MAINLY WET RATHER THAN WHITE SCENARIO. SHOULD THIS ULTIMATELY VERIFY...IT WOULD ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STRONG WINDS AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS COLD SNAP BY TUE. STILL SOME TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME...AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THIS FEATURE SOMEWHAT...LIKELY DUE TO THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE N. GIVEN THE FEATURES AT PLAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. is there at least a little mutual exclusivity here? HPC maps show a midwest low cutting up, with redevelopment on the delmarva coast. Snow to ice up here at worst I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 is there at least a little mutual exclusivity here? HPC maps show a midwest low cutting up, with redevelopment on the delmarva coast. Snow to ice up here at worst I'd think. Discordantly, the 'more wet than white' sentiment of the AFD is countered with ZFP (and p/c's) of just snow. We'll see. Fun to watch and hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 From the boards favorite met Adam Moyer @AdamPHLWx26m Not suggesting a SSW by any stretch, but we've seen two vortex splits already. If it happens again, could be much cooler than progged EOM Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More Adam Moyer @AdamPHLWx27m Wild card will be the polar vortex. It's "supposed" to be cold and stable, but has not behaved that way so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Is anybody else concerned about the southeast ridge that keeps popping up? My concerns are that the day 6 and beyond are cold, but if you recall, this week we are currently in was suppose to be cold as well...and low and behold the SE ridge develops with +20 anomolies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Is anybody else concerned about the southeast ridge that keeps popping up? My concerns are that the day 6 and beyond are cold, but if you recall, this week we are currently in was suppose to be cold as well...and low and behold the SE ridge develops with +20 anomolies. What the blue fuk? +20? And this forums mets have touted this week as the pattern relaxation time since mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 That Monday system is starting to look icier for the interior...hopefully we don't slow it down and amp it up too much, then we'll end up with a torching cutter after the initial frozen. The EC ensembles tried to get a bit of an east based -NAO going late in their run which would help us out as the EPO ridge retros a little bit...that would try and force heights a little lower in SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 That Monday system is starting to look icier for the interior...hopefully we don't slow it down and amp it up too much, then we'll end up with a torching cutter after the initial frozen. The EC ensembles tried to get a bit of an east based -NAO going late in their run which would help us out as the EPO ridge retros a little bit...that would try and force heights a little lower in SE Canada. Are the euro ens colder than the op for the Sunday night storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Are the euro ens colder than the op for the Sunday night storm? 850s looked pretty warm to me on the ensembles. Doesn't mean they're right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 850s looked pretty warm to me on the ensembles. Doesn't mean they're right though.Id love a big Icestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Is anybody else concerned about the southeast ridge that keeps popping up? My concerns are that the day 6 and beyond are cold, but if you recall, this week we are currently in was suppose to be cold as well...and low and behold the SE ridge develops with +20 anomolies. We'll be dealing with a SE Ridge all winter unless we can get some high latitude blocking or some timely confluence to beat it down somewhat. I'm would not be overly concerned with it right now as it is still early Dec. What I do like seeing is an active pattern that looks to be a break from what we've been in. Having storms come our way is the first step. The cold is there to be had in Canada it's just getting the mechanism to transport it S & E to deliver the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 That Monday system is starting to look icier for the interior...hopefully we don't slow it down and amp it up too much, then we'll end up with a torching cutter after the initial frozen. The EC ensembles tried to get a bit of an east based -NAO going late in their run which would help us out as the EPO ridge retros a little bit...that would try and force heights a little lower in SE Canada. Not much in the way if frozen on the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Not much in the way if frozen on the coastal plain Everyone starts as frozen on the Euro except maybe the cape and S RI coast. Though it turns over pretty quick in your area. If the system is a bit slower, then we'll have less frozen, so we'll want it to be a faster mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Everyone starts as frozen on the Euro except maybe the cape and S RI coast. Though it turns over pretty quick in your area. If the system is a bit slower, then we'll have less frozen, so we'll want it to be a faster mover. Verbatim how much ice we looking at? I understand that it is too far away to even discuss these details, but figured I would ask lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Verbatim how much ice we looking at? I understand that it is too far away to even discuss these details, but figured I would ask lol... Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The op Euro shows what we've been worried about by D10. Retro low into GOA and the furnace hammer for the lower 48. At least it shows a nice snow/sleet/rain storm on Monday - that would be the first measurable for most of us. I think that warmth is coming. But we've had what looked like longer term warmth set in this season only to get blasted in later runs up here anyway. Let's hope there's a line drawn in the sand shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Everyone starts as frozen on the Euro except maybe the cape and S RI coast. Though it turns over pretty quick in your area. If the system is a bit slower, then we'll have less frozen, so we'll want it to be a faster mover. these kinds of storms tend in come in faster if I recall. and HPC talks about a system "racing northeast". Seems like a front end dumper that is probably good up here and mixed results the further south and east you go. A step down and early december behaving like early december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yeah - really bizarre. Why keep things inconsistent? Ryan I think this is a great discussion...can you start a thread specifically for the new guidelines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Ryan I think this is a great discussion...can you start a thread specifically for the new guidelines? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41853-new-nws-snow-measurement-guide/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 06z GEFS are pretty nice looking at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I guess what confuses me is that we ask the paid observers at airports like CON, PWM, etc to measure every 6 hours if possible, yet COOPs are now only supposed to do it once per 24 hours. If an observer can measure every 6 hours (or 12) why restrict it if it's okay for a larger airport? It would be interesting to know whether quality control data led to this new policy. Perhaps there was a statistically meaningful divergence in snowfall totals and the underlying assumption is that the issue can best be addressed by the new policy? Perhaps one could have pilot tested the new approach to see if it addresses quality issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The op Euro shows what we've been worried about by D10. Retro low into GOA and the furnace hammer for the lower 48. At least it shows a nice snow/sleet/rain storm on Monday - that would be the first measurable for most of us. sounds like your November 1st post to a tee. Besides that it doesn't show a furnace, seems the NAO AO has a say in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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