toronto blizzard Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yeah I don't expect everything to stay underneath us. Hopefully a nice pattern next week for at least some snow and then we'll just see what happens. I'm actually somewhat interested in this height field predicted on the weeklies because it could lead to some unprecedented cold in the Plains which will want to bleed southeast. I was reading on twitter that the MJO roundy plots are hinting at the MJO heading towards 180W towards mid/late december which could lead to interesting weather around X-mas. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I was reading on twitter that the MJO roundy plots are hinting at the MJO heading towards 180W towards mid/late december which could lead to interesting weather around X-mas. Thoughts? Other models have this too. One of the reasons why any relaxation may be temporary, but I also don't have to tell you how inaccurate those forecasts can be as well. The weeklies actually handled it well and they go towards those more favorable phases in weak form towards the third and fourth week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Other models have this too. One of the reasons why any relaxation may be temporary, but I also don't have to tell you how inaccurate those forecasts can be as well. The weeklies actually handled it well and they go towards those more favorable phases in weak form towards the third and fourth week. Ya those MJO forecasts have been poor but I've heard that the Roundy plots are more accurate. Anyways that may be the reason why the weeklies are popping slight western ridging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yeah I don't expect everything to stay underneath us. Hopefully a nice pattern next week for at least some snow and then we'll just see what happens. I'm actually somewhat interested in this height field predicted on the weeklies because it could lead to some unprecedented cold in the Plains which will want to bleed southeast. With the cold already modeled in the short to medium range out in the plains, and then what the weeklies show, I'm wondering if we'll be flirting with the idea of some top 3 on record cold December monrthly numbers in spots there. I say top 3 because I'm not sure December 1983 can ever be broken out in those parts. Obviously still a long ways to go though. It should be interesting to watch the EPO/WPO ridging. I agree it should keep us pretty active on the storm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Ya those MJO forecasts have been poor but I've heard that the Roundy plots are more accurate. Anyways that may be the reason why the weeklies are popping slight western ridging? Yeah possibly. We'll just have to see how things progress over the next two weeks. It seems like a lot of models want this to be the winter theme, that is this gradient patten of colder than normal southern Canada and adjacent US and warmer than normal south. Don't ask me where it will setup lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 nice read. good discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 nice read. good discussion. I feel like at this point we just treat it as floating down a river in a tube. We'll just see where it takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 With the cold already modeled in the short to medium range out in the plains, and then what the weeklies show, I'm wondering if we'll be flirting with the idea of some top 3 on record cold December monrthly numbers in spots there. I say top 3 because I'm not sure December 1983 can ever be broken out in those parts. Obviously still a long ways to go though. It should be interesting to watch the EPO/WPO ridging. I agree it should keep us pretty active on the storm front. I knew it was ridiculous out there, but I think this one graphic is worth all the words....see if you can find December 1983 on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Let's lock that one. December 2008 special. 12/16/08...a day that will live in infamy. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 12/16/08...a day that will live in infamy. Lol. I think you mean 2007? Don't forget your famous "wow" when you rolled up the shade that morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 12/16/08...a day that will live in infamy. Lol. 2007. Scroll down about 8 or 9 posts. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/150209-sne-obsdiscussion-for-1216-noreaster/page__st__1210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 This pattern may cause some severe New England hatred in other regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 This pattern may cause some severe New England hatred in other regions. Perhaps But that 850 0c line is retreating faster than Rev Kev calling for a torch as it transfers at 162 right over NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Perhaps But that 850 0c line is retreating faster than Rev Kev calling for a torch as it transfers at 162 right over NYC I'm sorry Yoda, but that's a lot of snow for many of us. And you know the solution will be colder with that high up there sitting there slapping warmth around. That's just the climo in these setups regardless of the verbatim model read 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I'm sorry Yoda, but that's a lot of snow for many of us. And you know the solution will be colder with that high up there sitting there slapping warmth around. That's just the climo in these setups regardless of the verbatim model read 7 days out. Well yeah you guys get a nice dump while we get rain It was discussed in our forum that the reason the H gets kicked is because no 50/50 to lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I think you mean 2007? Don't forget your famous "wow" when you rolled up the shade that morning Yeah, sorry I was a little hasty on the typing there. The "wow" was more like "$hit". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Not that it really matters this far out, but 00z gfs look good for next week here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Well yeah you guys get a nice dump while we get rain It was discussed in our forum that the reason the H gets kicked is because no 50/50 to lock it in You guys absolutely need NAO. A big cutter would actually help set that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 You guys absolutely need NAO. A big cutter would actually help set that up. True, but I dont think this one is per se. It starts as one, then transfers really late to a Miller B on top of NYC I wish we could all enjoy a -NAO EDIT: Ian just posted the h5 map at 144... absolutely horrendous and explains why we all turn to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Not that it really matters this far out, but 00z gfs look good for next week here? Verbatim snow to sleet to rain (prob more icing in interior)...but its irrelevant at this range. The takeaway point at this time range is there is a system there still and there is still an arctic high lurking just to the northwest of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Euro says ...what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 says ...whatMy question too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 BOX unimpressed... MON-TUE...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESWILL PASS OVER OR NW OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. EITHEROF THESE TRACKS SUGGESTS A MAINLY WET RATHER THAN WHITE SCENARIO.SHOULD THIS ULTIMATELY VERIFY...IT WOULD ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITHSOME STRONG WINDS AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ANOMALOUS COLDSNAP BY TUE. STILL SOME TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES WHICH WILLNEED TO BE OVERCOME...AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THIS FEATURESOMEWHAT...LIKELY DUE TO THE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE N. GIVEN THEFEATURES AT PLAY...WILL NEED TO MONITOR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTHIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The op Euro shows what we've been worried about by D10. Retro low into GOA and the furnace hammer for the lower 48. At least it shows a nice snow/sleet/rain storm on Monday - that would be the first measurable for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Dis as tah lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Im sure this will tame vermonts upslope totals Lol http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/reference/Snow_Measurement_Guidelines.pdf It is my understanding that the primary goal of the re-write is to "reduce snowfall inflation", which some believe the previous guidelines encouraged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 We just came full circle... anticipation all day long about an epic pattern, then someone says well the ECM ensembles may not be perfect looking after day 10, then Blizz spends a while telling folks not to panic because they are wrong, then once folks go to sleep there's actually some real good discussion between ORH and Arnold and others...now it's morning so time for some to start upping the hype about an epic pattern, then the mets can come slow down the runaway train/bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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