Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Pretty much lol. Put me in the camp of not liking the look, but I also understand why it could be colder as outlined ad nauseam. I also think it may be transient so I wouldn't punt by any means. yeah i admit it does get old. but if it looked fantastic, i would post the same amount about it...though i'd be happier about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 already worried about what hasn't fallen yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Tidbit from the other day from Bluehill Highest November Sea Level Pressure on Record 1. 30.86 in 1887 2. 30.82 in 1891 3. 30.80 in 1996 30.80 in 2013 (pending review) Yeah, I was talking about this in the banter thread this weekend. BDL also reached 30.80 (1043 MB) which is about as high as I've ever seen the pressure get here. Just off the charts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 already worried about what hasn't fallen yet. I don't know what you mean? I don't think people are sweating over it, just discussing it. Hopefully next week pans out for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 already worried about what hasn't fallen yet.I did laugh about that, hopefully he doesn't call for melt all the way to PF again this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I did laugh about that, hopefully he doesn't call for melt all the way to PF again this year ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I don't know what you mean? I don't think people are sweating over it, just discussing it. Hopefully next week pans out for most.Kevs post about hopefully people don't think it will melt, that was funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yeah, I was talking about this in the banter thread this weekend. BDL also reached 30.80 (1043 MB) which is about as high as I've ever seen the pressure get here. Just off the charts... I had 30.84 at work, 30.81 at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Kevs post about hopefully people don't think it will melt, that was funny Oh, well I may have interpreted Bob's post wrong too. Anyways go snow. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 How did the weeklies look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The theme just has been ridging, trough, then back to ridging, trough etc...rinse and repeat. Regardless though, the trough entering the country later this week will supply a great deal of cold air into Canada and the northern tier of the country. Plus, the beginning of next week looks pretty decent at some sort of storm (forget the details/specifics right now) which could hold potential. What happens after that though...the signals are incredibly mixed right now. It does appear that the PNA may tank pretty solidly but forecasts for the NAO are really all over the place and now that we are moving into December, and by next week it will be the 2nd week of the month, the role the NAO plays will be a tad stronger than now. As long though as SE ridge though which will be trying to poke it's head with the -PNA stays muted and not overwhelming, this month still certainly holds a great deal of potential and given how the northern stream looks to remain quite active, I'll take my chances with a temperature gradient pattern. The outcomes may not always be pretty, especially if we're on the wrong side but we would be in the game at least. So this doesn't create another debate, when I hear "gradient pattern" I usually think of having a really tight temperature gradient within a small area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 How did the weeklies look? SE ridge, +NAO, ridging over west coast, PV over Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Pretty much lol. Put me in the camp of not liking the look, but I also understand why it could be colder as outlined ad nauseam. I also think it may be transient so I wouldn't punt by any means. I don't know, it's kind of unfolding like Cohen said it might by the apparent look of the long range. May just mean after next week some of us coastal dwellers may be on the outside looking in as the hill people enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Weeks 3 and 4 were near to slightly below in SNE. I think ti could work with that pattern especially if we can get ridging into Greenland to keep the PV near Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I don't know, it's kind of unfolding like Cohen said it might by the apparent look of the long range. May just mean after next week some of us coastal dwellers may be on the outside looking in as the hill people enjoy the snow. Well it's December right? This isn't like an El Nino pattern with tepid temps killing the coast. Canada is cold unlike in an El Nino, so I feel good about the supply being there. I still think this ends up being a decent December for SNE even if we see a relaxation mid month. I have a feeling that might not last more than a week if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Weeks 3 and 4 were near to slightly below in SNE. I think ti could work with that pattern especially if we can get ridging into Greenland to keep the PV near Hudson Bay. help us obi wan...you're our only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 May just mean after next week some of us coastal dwellers may be on the outside looking in as the hill people enjoy the snow.Plenty of room for you out here, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 help us obi wan...you're our only hope. LOL, did you see them? We literally ride the line. It's probably 150 miles from drippage or dendrites. Good luck predicting that this far out. I do think it's a high stakes pattern and one that seems feasible for us...but what do we know 3 weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 SE ridge, +NAO, ridging over west coast, PV over Hudson Bay. 93-94 esque? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Weeks 3 and 4 were near to slightly below in SNE. I think ti could work with that pattern especially if we can get ridging into Greenland to keep the PV near Hudson Bay.Is that what they show. PV near HB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Is that what they show. PV near HB? HB and towards the Canadian prairies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 LOL, did you see them? We literally ride the line. It's probably 150 miles from drippage or dendrites. Good luck predicting that this far out. I do think it's a high stakes pattern and one that seems feasible for us...but what do we know 3 weeks out. I would hedge slightly colder until we actually see cross polar flow cut off. The ridge retrogrades but not far enough to shut off the cross polar flow. So that means our cold intrusions will be potent and likely outweigh the milder periods. Basically the opposite of what happens when we have a general vortex stuck there when the cold shots are wimpy compared to the torch periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I would hedge slightly colder until we actually see cross polar flow cut off. The ridge retrogrades but not far enough to shut off the cross polar flow. So that means our cold intrusions will be potent and likely outweigh the milder periods. Basically the opposite of what happens when we have a general vortex stuck there when the cold shots are wimpy compared to the torch periods. Hopefully storm tracks not too far west. With the PV moving west towards the prairies..that's when I'd like to see the Atlantic cooperate more. Looks like it would be an active pattern, so no shortage of QPF which by default would lead to more snow chances obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 And actually those progs sort of keep heights near the west coast higher than normal which would limit Pacific crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 And actually those progs sort of keep heights near the west coast higher than normal which would limit Pacific crap.Weak se ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 And actually those progs sort of keep heights near the west coast higher than normal which would limit Pacific crap. and allow a more favorable trough axis position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Hopefully storm tracks not too far west. With the PV moving west towards the prairies..that's when I'd like to see the Atlantic cooperate more. Looks like it would be an active pattern, so no shortage of QPF which by default would lead to more snow chances obviously We'll definitely have to get lucky to keep everything underneath us. Very few SWFE/gradient patterns are able to achieve that. 2007 and 2008 failed to do so despite all the snow we had those Decembers. Dec 1970 was one of the few that was able to once the pattern kicked in, but we had some help later in the month from a -NAO. Perhaps if the weeklies are correct, we can get the same assistance when we need it most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 NAM has the second frontal wave in question hitting the Northeast with some heavy frontal QPF, has a nice comma head on the backside of the first frontal wave, but surface temps are in question with regards to where the heaviest QPF falls over New England. Its 3.5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Weak se ridge? Verbatim yes, but it's there. Weeklies aren't really designed to gauge intensity of those features, but you do get an idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 We'll definitely have to get lucky to keep everything underneath us. Very few SWFE/gradient patterns are able to achieve that. 2007 and 2008 failed to do so despite all the snow we had those Decembers. Dec 1970 was one of the few that was able to once the pattern kicked in, but we had some help later in the month from a -NAO. Perhaps if the weeklies are correct, we can get the same assistance when we need it most. Yeah I don't expect everything to stay underneath us. Hopefully a nice pattern next week for at least some snow and then we'll just see what happens. I'm actually somewhat interested in this height field predicted on the weeklies because it could lead to some unprecedented cold in the Plains which will want to bleed southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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