weatherwiz Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I am not a major fan of SWFE's, especially if the push of WAA aloft is quite strong. My hope is that I can just cash in as much as possible on the front end before I get tainted garbage of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 euro ens get pretty mild after day 11 or so...across just about the entire lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Snow to ice potential ...two system within 3 or 4 days of one another. Huge EPO cold load into Canada finds it's way into the central Plains/Lakes, and eventually... confluence up N sends a strong polar high through eastern Ontario as moderate strength, but moist system tries to lift in to the Lakes.... Intense CAD is in place and a weak commitment to secondary takes place, enough so to keep a strong N ageostrophic drain going on over SNE/central areas. It would almost have to be a significant icing event in that scenario... Whole thing appears to repeat less than a week later. Cold in between systems. 12/13 12/ 16 07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 euro ens get pretty mild after day 11 or so...across just about the entire lower 48.Meh. So much emphasis is placed on those . Never understood why. Average all ens out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I am not a major fan of SWFE's, especially if the push of WAA aloft is quite strong. My hope is that I can just cash in as much as possible on the front end before I get tainted garbage of sleet. that's probably a good way to treat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Ahhh, I remember 12/13/07. The storm came in hard and quick, starting just after 12pm and was cranking by 1. Rush hour on 128 was a complete mess. I was still in high school at the time and I remember sitting at home and watching the entire thing unfold, one of my favorite storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 "cheap warmth" today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I am not a major fan of SWFE's, especially if the push of WAA aloft is quite strong. My hope is that I can just cash in as much as possible on the front end before I get tainted garbage of sleet. Climatologically speaking, I wouldn't be a major fan of SWFE's if I lived in W. Hartford, CT, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Climatologically speaking, I wouldn't be a major fan of SWFE's if I lived in W. Hartford, CT, either.I love SWFE. Hard to come by lately though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I love SWFE. Hard to come by lately thoughnot an official term, do not exist anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Meh. So much emphasis is placed on those . Never understood why. Average all ens out just providing the long-range model information...same as every day. gefs are definitely colder. canadian ensembles i would say are actually warmer than the euro ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 "cheap warmth" today i would actually say the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 just providing the long-range model information...same as every day. gefs are definitely colder. canadian ensembles i would say are actually warmer than the euro ens. yes the CMC are warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 i would actually say the opposite high mins low highs, BDL was + 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 I hope folks aren't worrying or thinking it warms and melts after day 10. Nothing points to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 not an official term, do not exist anymoreWe will never have a SECS again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 high mins low highs, BDL was + 3 yeah...cheap cold. LOL. give me low and low. coulda/woulda/shoulda but full sun would have been a warm day. in the dead of winter, i'll take cheap cold. this time of year, unless you are in ski country or hoping to freeze over a bog, kinda meaningless whether its 38F or 44F or 48F really. especially if covered with fog and no snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I hope folks aren't worrying or thinking it warms and melts after day 10. Nothing points to that i'm not worried at all...but i disagree about stuff pointing to that. i think some stuff does point to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 i'm not worried at all...but i disagree about stuff pointing to that. i think some stuff does point to that.Maybe there's nothing to this but every time it's looked like a shift to warm the last few months that has been overcome by various factors. It's been years since we could say this, but cold has been winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I hope folks aren't worrying or thinking it warms and melts after day 10. Nothing points to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Maybe there's nothing to this but every time it's looked like a shift to warm the last few months that has been overcome by various factors. It's been years since we could say this, but cold has been winning The pattern is going to change though. Not apples to apples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Maybe there's nothing to this but every time it's looked like a shift to warm the last few months that has been overcome by various factors. It's been years since we could say this, but cold has been winningtransient warm days have occurred but as stated by some the EPO negative state will be dominant let's hope we can get a phase change in the NAO to make this one helluva memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 yeah...cheap cold. LOL. give me low and low. coulda/woulda/shoulda but full sun would have been a warm day. in the dead of winter, i'll take cheap cold. this time of year, unless you are in ski country or hoping to freeze over a bog, kinda meaningless whether its 38F or 44F or 48F really. especially if covered with fog and no snow on the ground. I ski so keep it cheap works, at home its a non benefit but at least it feels like winter, seasons in seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 ??? Your optimistic outlook....just made me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Maybe there's nothing to this but every time it's looked like a shift to warm the last few months that has been overcome by various factors. It's been years since we could say this, but cold has been winning well i'm not saying the winter's shot or anything. but the signals are getting tough to ignore, imo, for the period coming up mid-month and beyond. how it shakes out, i don't know...but the GOA trough seems to be there on all guidance at this point to some extent and that generally results in a flatter / milder flow across the states...and with things the way they are in the N atlantic, it'll be tough to overcome that signal for a while. it's possible the cold overwhelms with the PV sagging down at times or maybe we get some ridging up into greenland to help offset. it's also possible it's a brief transient feature. also possible the models are just wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The pattern is going to change though. Not apples to apples.could change, not etched in stone. 11-15 change was talked about starting 5 days ago, pushed out to 11 again today. Euro ENS tried doing this in the first week of November, Ryan was pimping it hard, read the first November thread. I am not saying it is wrong just having trouble putting stock in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 well i'm not saying the winter's shot or anything. but the signals are getting tough to ignore, imo, for the period coming up mid-month and beyond. how it shakes out, i don't know...but the GOA trough seems to be there on all guidance at this point to some extent and that generally results in a flatter / milder flow across the states...and with things the way they are in the N atlantic, it'll be tough to overcome that signal for a while. it's possible the cold overwhelms with the PV sagging down at times or maybe we get some ridging up into greenland to help offset. it's also possible it's a brief transient feature. also possible the models are just wrong. Pretty much lol. Put me in the camp of not liking the look, but I also understand why it could be colder as outlined ad nauseam. I also think it may be transient so I wouldn't punt by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 could change, not etched in stone. 11-15 change was talked about starting 5 days ago, pushed out to 11 again today. Euro ENS tried doing this in the first week of November, Ryan was pimping it hard, read the first November thread. I am not saying it is wrong just having trouble putting stock in it. yep. agree. also have to go with the probabilities i think though...especially when it comes to long-term stuff. play the odds that seem best at the time...and given the signal was originally 360 hours out...and is now more like 240/264...i think it lends credence to the general theme. now, in terms of sensible weather, who knows...maybe we sneak through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 could change, not etched in stone. 11-15 change was talked about starting 5 days ago, pushed out to 11 again today. Euro ENS tried doing this in the first week of November, Ryan was pimping it hard, read the first November thread. I am not saying it is wrong just having trouble putting stock in it. I feel good about it changing to an extent. Maybe for you guys it's only slightly warmer overall, but the pattern will change on the east coast for a period of time anyways. I don't see it as a big issue though in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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