Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I think this is a good description of how we use the term. A latitude gradient in temperature anomalies (below avg north and above avg south) that is close enough to be relevant to our weather. If you go far enough in any direction you will find a latitude gradient in temperature anomalies...in some of our blowtorch years, you can find a nice latitude gradient between James Bay and Ellsmere Island. Not really relevant to us. Kind of like when we say "its a stormy looking pattern"...we usually mean for our general region. we don't say "its a stormy looking pattern" when Seattle is going to get smoked and we are under a parched ridge. We will often specify another region's location if the descriptor refers to that area and not nearby. yes what I was relaying to PF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Caddy All the guidance right now is indicating big time CAD for that threat...its far enough out that it can change, but if we get this down to about 3-4 days out later this week with a similar looking setup on guidance, then I think we can start to get serious about a widespread winter impact for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The NAm doesn't even go out that far Yeah it does, it goes out to 84 hours, with the first frontal wave impacting the mid Atlantic and Northeastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 How are the long range ens? On the phone and working so forgive me for not looking at least at the GEFS/CMC. Tyia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 How are the long range ens? On the phone and working so forgive me for not looking at least at the GEFS/CMC. Tyia.GEFS from the 15th to the 18th 850s -6 to -4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yeah it does, it goes out to 84 hours, with the first frontal wave impacting the mid Atlantic and Northeastern US. 84hours is not long range. Its early mid range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 GFS coming in colder with the second wave of frontal precip and with a northerly flow expect it to change to snow. Its seems like it brings another snowstorm through around the 9th, although the storm on the 18z run is in the Rockies currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 84hours is not long range. Its early mid range For the NAM model, that's its long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 By 165 even the Rev is switching over GFS coming in colder with the second wave of frontal precip and with a northerly flow expect it to change to snow. Its seems like it brings another snowstorm through around the 9th, although the storm on the 18z run is in the Rockies currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Jerry phone friendlyhttp://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=t850&HH=0&BASE=-&WMO=71627&ZOOM=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yeah the Day 7 storm is not colder on the GFS..not sure where this model interpretation is coming from. Primary into the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yeah the Day 7 storm is not colder on the GFS..not sure where this model interpretation is coming from. Primary into the lakes Im pretty sure he was talking about the impulse that comes through Friday night initially. Regardless, we have a seperate thread for that "threat". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 GFS sharpens the trough over the Great Lakes leading to a Great Lakes storm instead of a New England storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Tidbit from the other day from Bluehill Highest November Sea Level Pressure on Record 1. 30.86 in 1887 2. 30.82 in 1891 3. 30.80 in 1996 30.80 in 2013 (pending review) The moral of the story is, get ready for an epic March KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 By 165 even the Rev is switching over After a very nice from end dump which will be sealed with an ice kiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yeah I was initially talking about the second impulse that moves through New England, but I guess the Dec 6-7th thread would of suffice. However the Primary around day 7 doesn't intensify that strongly and is already producing a secondary east of Delmarva peninsula. Its still a cold scenario, but not as snowy for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 GFS sharpens the trough over the Great Lakes leading to a Great Lakes storm instead of a New England storm. Lol...nne gets buried. In fact north of the pike does well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Jerry phone friendlyhttp://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&VAR=t850&HH=0&BASE=-&WMO=71627&ZOOM=0 Thanks Steve. Nice site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 I really think a good chunk of the region is going to experience a fairly significant ice event over the next 10-14 days..just seems like it's lining up that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Hey Will what do you think of this 18z GFS oper. look... is this a SWFE ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That is a fugly primary position on the euro. SNE actually does better than your area when the primary goes wayyyy west in these situations because the max thrust of the mid level warm tongue misses us to the west....see Dec 16, 2007.....the development of the primary renders our mid levels more resistant to the waa. I actually managed slightly better in Dec 2007, than 2008.....33.5" in the former, and 31" in the latter....however, as Will intimated, the snow had more staying power in 2008 owed to marginally colder overall regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 GFS delays the moderation period in the longer range FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 There wasn't a snow depth near 48", but i did have 50" of snowfall that month. I think the max depth approached 30" that month. This is definitely the pattern where we tend to rack up the snow though. I like where we sit right now, but it's too far out to sweat details. The NAM even CADs us in the late week warmup ahead of the cold fropa. CAD season is upon us. didn't the snow on the level approach 48 inches at some point that winter? I am hoping for some action before I leave for the airport late afternoon sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Man that is one entertaining GFS, 18z run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Man that is one entertaining GFS, 18z run! Good snows for the whole area next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 SNE actually does better than your area when the primary goes wayyyy west in these situations because the max thrust of the mid level warm tongue misses us to the west....see Dec 16, 2007.....the development of the primary renders our mid levels more resistant to the waa. I actually managed slightly better in Dec 2007, than 2008.....33.5" in the former, and 31" in the latter....however, as Will intimated, the snow had more staying power in 2008 owed to marginally colder overall regime. yeah that makes sense. Both our areas can cash in with these types of set ups but I need a further south primary to maintain frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I think we'll have other than bare ground by 12/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 nice weenie run on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Good snows for the whole area next week? Snow to ice potential ...two system within 3 or 4 days of one another. Huge EPO cold load into Canada finds it's way into the central Plains/Lakes, and eventually... confluence up N sends a strong polar high through eastern Ontario as moderate strength, but moist system tries to lift in to the Lakes.... Intense CAD is in place and a weak commitment to secondary takes place, enough so to keep a strong N ageostrophic drain going on over SNE/central areas. It would almost have to be a significant icing event in that scenario... Whole thing appears to repeat less than a week later. Cold in between systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 nice weenie run on the gfs ... yeah, it's playing up to some lust there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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