December Pattern Disco- 2013

[jamesnichols1989]

that's shocking commentary.

 

Keep mocking me that's fine, just remember this when the models come in colder with their solutions by the end of the week.

[mahk_webstah]

I always love when you come out of hibernation. You NNE guys have to love the look incoming.

I love being called an "NNE guy".  

This kind of pattern obviously has fantastic implications up here.  Brian isn't saying much so that he doesn't jinx it.  When you guys are sweating the line, we are going to pile up up here.  Only sad part is that I leave for London late on the 8th and am not back until the 13th, so I might miss a lot of the action.  Would mind a storm starting the morning of the 8th.

 

In my area Dec 07 was a big month in a huge historic snow year, with 4-8 inch storms coming all the time and a depth on the level that got near 48 inches at one point I heard (didn't live here yet).  Dec 08 was my first winter here and we had an historic ice storm and a 5 day snowfall of 31 inches later in the month.  I'm happy with either month.

 

I lurk the board a lot but don't start posting til now usually.

[jamesnichols1989]

What do the EURO ensembles show for our storm next Monday?

[Ginx snewx]

I love being called an "NNE guy".

This kind of pattern obviously has fantastic implications up here. Brian isn't saying much so that he doesn't jinx it. When you guys are sweating the line, we are going to pile up up here. Only sad part is that I leave for London late on the 8th and am not back until the 13th, so I might miss a lot of the action. Would mind a storm starting the morning of the 8th.

In my area Dec 07 was a big month in a huge historic snow year, with 4-8 inch storms coming all the time and a depth on the level that got near 48 inches at one point I heard (didn't live here yet). Dec 08 was my first winter here and we had an historic ice storm and a 5 day snowfall of 31 inches later in the month. I'm happy with either month.

I lurk the board a lot but don't start posting til now usually.

You have become the Jerry of the board being away for good storms. Have a safe trip. I will be up in NNE for a couple of days and will report for you.

[Tropopause_Fold]

What do the EURO ensembles show for our storm next Monday?

snow to rain for Cape Cod, MA

[dryslot]

I always love when you come out of hibernation. You NNE guys have to love the look incoming.

 

You know my feelings..........

[ORH_wxman]

What do the EURO ensembles show for our storm next Monday?

 

 

They are similar to the OP but a bit SE...nothing all that out of the ordinary for ensembles at this range.

[Tropopause_Fold]

this, to me, is a gradient pattern:

 

[Tropopause_Fold]

and pretty much right where we'd want it

[jamesnichols1989]

and pretty much right where we'd want it

 

It appears that way.

[Brian5671]

Yeah that's important to note. Some of the folks calling for an above normal USA except for the NW will have a tough time over coming those deviations.

DT said something about accuwx tossing their winter forecast and doing a new one.  I think they were pretty warm for at least the 1st half

[jamesnichols1989]

18z NAM shows multiple wave configuration along the frontal boundary, one is too warm for snow the next one is questionable.  Yet again that is in its long range outlook.

[powderfreak]

Close call in most places. Dec 2007 was a bit colder....Dec 2008 was snowier further south into S CT and RI. 2007 was snowier to the north up by NH/VT border, but not by a lot. The interior of SNE north of the pike had the massive ice storm in 2008 that Dec 2007 did not have. If you weight the cold a little bit more than snow, then 2007 would win, if you weight the actual snow/ice a little bit more than I think 2008 probably wins overall in SNE.

 

Dec 2007 was better up here... but just slightly.  BTV had 45.2" in Dec 2007 and 40.3" in 2008.  I think that 45" Dec made the top 5 snowiest Dec on record.  Once you get BTV up in that 3-4 foot range for a monthly snowfall down in the Champlain Valley, that's a pretty solid winter month.

 

The Dec 16-17, 2007 event was a pretty big one up here with widespread 12"+ amounts, too.

...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...   HANKSVILLE            18.3   859 AM 12/17   COOP   MILTON                18.0   700 AM 12/17   NWS EMPLOYEE   ESSEX JUNCTION        17.6   901 AM 12/17   COOP   SOUTH BURLINGTON      15.5   730 AM 12/17   NWS EMPLOYEE   SOUTH BURLINGTON      15.5   841 AM 12/17   SOUTH BURLINGTON      14.4   930 AM 12/17   AIRPORT   WESTFORD              13.0   715 AM 12/17   NWS EMPLOYEE   UNDERHILL CENTER      12.8   800 AM 12/17   NWS EMPLOYEE   JERICHO               11.4   745 AM 12/17   NWS EMPLOYEE   COLCHESTER            11.0   740 AM 12/17   NWS EMPLOYEE

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...   STOWE                 15.0  1000 AM 12/17   2 MI SOUTH   CAMBRIDGE             15.0   842 AM 12/17   EDEN                  13.3   844 AM 12/17   COOP   JEFFERSONVILLE        12.5   859 AM 12/17   COOP

[Ginx snewx]

this, to me, is a gradient pattern:

ecens.png

exactly, nice looking too

[powderfreak]

this, to me, is a gradient pattern:

 

ecens.png

 

Yeah, and it still be a gradient pattern if that gradient was over TorontoBlizzard's head, right? 

[OSUmetstud]

Yeah, and it still be a gradient pattern if that gradient was over TorontoBlizzard's head, right? 

It probably wouldn't be talked about in this particular thread like that, though.  

[mahk_webstah]

You have become the Jerry of the board being away for good storms. Have a safe trip. I will be up in NNE for a couple of days and will report for you.

 

You have become the Jerry of the board being away for good storms. Have a safe trip. I will be up in NNE for a couple of days and will report for you.

pics please....and remember the time zone changes.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It probably wouldn't be talked about in this particular thread like that, though.  

i think if the ens showed a pattern conducive to producing this kind of tight thermal gradient anywhere from about Torontoblizzard to the Mid-Atlantic we'd probably call it a gradient pattern but try to hint to some extent whether we thought we'd be closer to the good side or the bad side of it.  

 

at least, that's my take.

[dendrite]

I love being called an "NNE guy".  

This kind of pattern obviously has fantastic implications up here.  Brian isn't saying much so that he doesn't jinx it.  When you guys are sweating the line, we are going to pile up up here.  Only sad part is that I leave for London late on the 8th and am not back until the 13th, so I might miss a lot of the action.  Would mind a storm starting the morning of the 8th.

 

In my area Dec 07 was a big month in a huge historic snow year, with 4-8 inch storms coming all the time and a depth on the level that got near 48 inches at one point I heard (didn't live here yet).  Dec 08 was my first winter here and we had an historic ice storm and a 5 day snowfall of 31 inches later in the month.  I'm happy with either month.

 

I lurk the board a lot but don't start posting til now usually.

There wasn't a snow depth near 48", but i did have 50" of snowfall that month. I think the max depth approached 30" that month.

This is definitely the pattern where we tend to rack up the snow though. I like where we sit right now, but it's too far out to sweat details. The NAM even CADs us in the late week warmup ahead of the cold fropa. CAD season is upon us.

[powderfreak]

i think if the ens showed a pattern conducive to producing this kind of tight thermal gradient anywhere from about Torontoblizzard to the Mid-Atlantic we'd probably call it a gradient pattern but try to hint to some extent whether we thought we'd be closer to the good side or the bad side of it.  

 

at least, that's my take.

 

Yeah that sounds good.  It does seem though that when gradient pattern is mentioned, its mostly in a positive light for most of the posters on here (ie. people get excited when you mets use gradient pattern). 

[weathafella]

Methinks this is first widespread serious threat. Let's get through the week without losing it.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah, and it still be a gradient pattern if that gradient was over TorontoBlizzard's head, right?

we are talking about New England's gradient patterns, there is always a gradient. Not sure why you are having trouble grasping the concept.

[Ginx snewx]

Methinks this is first widespread serious threat. Let's get through the week without losing it.

National cold outbreak with widespread snow cover. Newsmaker week type weather incoming.

[powderfreak]

There wasn't a snow depth near 48", but i did have 50" of snowfall that month. I think the max depth approached 30" that month.

This is definitely the pattern where we tend to rack up the snow though. I like where we sit right now, but it's too far out to sweat details. The NAM even CADs us in the late week warmup ahead of the cold fropa. CAD season is upon us.

 

I would definitely feel pretty good about the upcoming pattern where you sit... from your area up through Dryslot and the Maine foothills. 

 

We do fine in a more northerly "gradient pattern", lol, but in a lot of SWFE we can sort of get stuck in a QPF minimum between the primary low to the west and the secondary developing, where you guys in NH/ME can pick up more from getting better forcing from the secondary lows.  These usually turn out to be longer duration light snow events up here, especially if the upper level trough slowly crosses the area and the primary rots nearby...nickel and dime type stuff.  But I hate having the primary west of us, because we can't get our NW flow to pad the totals until that gets east of us. 

[Damage In Tolland]

18z NAM shows multiple wave configuration along the frontal boundary, one is too warm for snow the next one is questionable.  Yet again that is in its long range outlook.

The NAm doesn't even go out that far

[powderfreak]

we are talking about New England's gradient patterns, there is always a gradient. Not sure why you are having trouble grasping the concept.

 

I got what I was looking for...whether or not its a favorable pattern and where are the geographic boundaries of it.  It wasn't always clear to me that it had to be set-up in a relatively favorable way for snow in New England to be a gradient pattern.   

[ORH_wxman]

i think if the ens showed a pattern conducive to producing this kind of tight thermal gradient anywhere from about Torontoblizzard to the Mid-Atlantic we'd probably call it a gradient pattern but try to hint to some extent whether we thought we'd be closer to the good side or the bad side of it.  

 

at least, that's my take.

 

 

I think this is a good description of how we use the term. A latitude gradient in temperature anomalies (below avg north and above avg south) that is close enough to be relevant to our weather. If you go far enough in any direction you will find a latitude gradient in temperature anomalies...in some of our blowtorch years, you can find a nice latitude gradient between James Bay and Ellsmere Island. Not really relevant to us. Kind of like when we say "its a stormy looking pattern"...we usually mean for our general region. we don't say "its a stormy looking pattern" when Seattle is going to get smoked and we are under a parched ridge.

 

We will often specify another region's location if the descriptor refers to that area and not nearby.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I think this is a good description of how we use the term. A latitude gradient in temperature anomalies (below avg north and above avg south) that is close enough to be relevant to our weather. If you go far enough in any direction you will find a latitude gradient in temperature anomalies...in some of our blowtorch years, you can find a nice latitude gradient between James Bay and Ellsmere Island. Not really relevant to us. Kind of like when we say "its a stormy looking pattern"...we usually mean for our general region. we don't say "its a stormy looking pattern" when Seattle is going to get smoked and we are under a parched ridge.

 

We will often specify another region's location if the descriptor refers to that area and not nearby.

 

heck, we don't even take that much joy in PF measuring on the picnic tables. 

[dendrite]

I got what I was looking for...whether or not its a favorable pattern and where are the geographic boundaries of it.  It wasn't always clear to me that it had to be set-up in a relatively favorable way for snow in New England to be a gradient pattern.

It's an enhanced gradient though with neg deps over us and pos deps to our south. Here's the euro op for the SWFE next Mon...

[Ginx snewx]

It's an enhanced gradient though with neg deps over us and pos deps to our south. Here's the euro op for the SWFE next Mon...

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