December Pattern Disco- 2013

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro almost reminds me of 12/16/07 in the way it handles the 12/9 threat.

Does have some similarities.  Looks further W though.

[ORH_wxman]

Stayed all snow. Sleet got to HFD

 

No, you are thinking of 12/13/07. 12/16/07 was when you were pelting pellets and Phil was ripping S+ on the Cape.

[ORH_wxman]

I heard cutter and vort max going north through Michigan and feared the worst, lol.

The GFS and GGEM are still advisory level snows up here, and I'd rather not flirt with rain or mix. It would be fun to get a region wide event too. Us Vermonters have been talking to ourselves on the last few snow events, lol.

So far away though, could end up with best snows from DC to QC right now.

 

 

It would still be a pretty good event for SNE too on this run...there's taint, but probably at least advisory level snows before flipping to sleet and ice...secondary sfc reflection tracks over SE MA so the surface would never really warm except for the far SE areas and maybe briefly along the eastern shores as a CF forms.

 

Its a very cold storm as modeled for 12/9. Its still pretty early. Anything that is a net gain is OK by me. I like the overall look on guidance thus far though as long as you keep expectations reasonable.

[Damage In Tolland]

No, you are thinking of 12/13/07. 12/16/07 was when you were pelting pellets and Phil was ripping S+ on the Cape.

oh. That was the famous dumbfounded event.For the trollers, that's where that comes from

[Baroclinic Zone]

oh. That was the famous dumbfounded event.

You still have pellets embedded in your bald skull?

[powderfreak]

It would still be a pretty good event for SNE too on this run...there's taint, but probably at least advisory level snows before flipping to sleet and ice...secondary sfc reflection tracks over SE MA so the surface would never really warm except for the far SE areas and maybe briefly along the eastern shores as a CF forms.

Its a very cold storm as modeled for 12/9. Its still pretty early. Anything that is a net gain is OK by me. I like the overall look on guidance thus far though as long as you keep expectations reasonable.

I'm feeling this one for you guys down there, the high is in a perfect position, and regardless of where the primary goes, the secondary reflection should be SE of the mainland in New England. Hopefully moisture gets far enough north up here, but as usual we'd probably nickel and dime to a decent event anyway given the Synoptics.

[Damage In Tolland]

You still have pellets embedded in your bald skull?

I'll never forget that morning. I came down to like 3-4 inches of snow,(after we'd had 11 on the 13th) and it was pounding sleet here by like 4:30 -5:00 that morning like Ray got pounded in the shed..while it was snowing N, S, E, and W of here. I think DXR was snow and maybe even BDR..and all you guys out east..It was pure dumfoundedment

[Ginx snewx]

a positive NAO. use the right terms and not made up ones

Everyone here knows what a SWFE is, how it's setup thanks to Mike Eckster and Wills excellent discussions over the years. Getting anal over the terms is about as foolish as it can get. I disagree with Bob, zonal flow is much different than a swfe gradient pattern. Systems can not dip in the GOM during zonal flow.

[ORH_wxman]

The general cold anomalies over the CONUS are pretty amazing throughout the Euro run. This would definitely be the most impressive widspread cold in December since 2000 for the CONUS should something like the OP Euro come to fruition in the medium/long range.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I want to chime in that I appreciate the civil disco of some of these terms.  I had always assumed that some of these were pretty standard met lingo (not that I knew entirely what they meant)

 

This has clarified (for me anyway)

gradiant pattern

SWFE

dumbfounded

 

Forky just hates any term that implies snow could be involved (jk forkster)

 

Glad the Euro has something... hope it trends the right way

[Ginx snewx]

The general cold anomalies over the CONUS are pretty amazing throughout the Euro run. This would definitely be the most impressive widspread cold in December since 2000 for the CONUS should something like the OP Euro come to fruition in the medium/long range.

Yeah that's important to note. Some of the folks calling for an above normal USA except for the NW will have a tough time over coming those deviations.

[nzucker]

The general cold anomalies over the CONUS are pretty amazing throughout the Euro run. This would definitely be the most impressive widspread cold in December since 2000 for the CONUS should something like the OP Euro come to fruition in the medium/long range.

The West gets absolutely frigid on the CMC too...-20C 850s into Denver and Salt Lake City.

[OSUmetstud]

That is a fugly primary position on the euro.  

[Ginx snewx]

I'll never forget that morning. I came down to like 3-4 inches of snow,(after we'd had 11 on the 13th) and it was pounding sleet here by like 4:30 -5:00 that morning like Ray got pounded in the shed..while it was snowing N, S, E, and W of here. I think DXR was snow and maybe even BDR..and all you guys out east..It was pure dumfoundedment

Newport RI was SN +. while you pinged. This Euro run has that classic look, secondary forced south of us. Interesting times

[OSUmetstud]

which was better for SNE?  Dec 2007 or Dec 2008?

[jamesnichols1989]

I think the weight of the cold air will weigh in on the positioning of the primary low on the EURO run.  Eventually it will come into a favorable place given the amount of cold air waiting to be released on the eastern US.  This storm has a lot of promise currently.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

That is a fugly primary position on the euro.

Very true. But the secondary gets going Which leads to a pretty good snow event for eastern New England

[jamesnichols1989]

which was better for SNE?  Dec 2007 or Dec 2008?

For me it was dec 2008

[toronto blizzard]

That is a fugly primary position on the euro.

It is but you have to think the secondary that forms of the east coast would prevent a lot of warm air from surging into your area. We"ll see.

[ORH_wxman]

which was better for SNE?  Dec 2007 or Dec 2008?

 

Close call in most places. Dec 2007 was a bit colder....Dec 2008 was snowier further south into S CT and RI. 2007 was snowier to the north up by NH/VT border, but not by a lot. The interior of SNE north of the pike had the massive ice storm in 2008 that Dec 2007 did not have. If you weight the cold a little bit more than snow, then 2007 would win, if you weight the actual snow/ice a little bit more than I think 2008 probably wins overall in SNE.

[OSUmetstud]

It is but you have to think the secondary that forms of the east coast would prevent a lot of warm air from surging into your area. We"ll see.

nah BUF torches with a primary in that position.  

[OSUmetstud]

Close call in most places. Dec 2007 was a bit colder....Dec 2008 was snowier further south into S CT and RI. 2007 was snowier to the north up by NH/VT border, but not by a lot. The interior of SNE north of the pike had the massive ice storm in 2008 that Dec 2007 did not have. If you weight the cold a little bit more than snow, then 2007 would win, if you weight the actual snow/ice a little bit more than I think 2008 probably wins overall in SNE.

cool, thanks Will.  Both were above normal in BUF, with 31" in 2007, and 49" in 2008.  Dec 2008 is actually the 9th snowiest December on record, even though very little LES fell that month.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Does the Euro give the mid atlantic area from DC to Philly snow/ice before a flip to rain?

[mahk_webstah]

a positive NAO. use the right terms and not made up ones

can you guys take this to the anal meteorological scientist nerd provacateur thread?

[jamesnichols1989]

GFS has three frontal waves, while the EURO has one frontal wave with no further redevelopment along the front before the GLC moves through, however I believe that the colder air will win the battle and force this primary low to near a BUF location while a secondary forms off of DE keeping most of New England all snow.

[mahk_webstah]

Only in the AMS glossary..."gradient" and "pattern" are real words in the english dictionary. 50/50 low isn't an AMS word but we'll use it.

 

So therefore, by your definition of unacceptable, you should frown upon the use of 50/50 low, SECS, or even "front end thump". None of those are in the AMS glossary either but all used in a relevant setting in the winter.

 

Only in the AMS glossary..."gradient" and "pattern" are real words in the english dictionary. 50/50 low isn't an AMS word but we'll use it.

 

So therefore, by your definition of unacceptable, you should frown upon the use of 50/50 low, SECS, or even "front end thump". None of those are in the AMS glossary either but all used in a relevant setting in the winter.

I always thought a gradient pattern was one that set up just north of forky and caused him to miss his front end hump and to ruin his SECS.  There's at least a 50/50 chance of that.

[Ginx snewx]

Tidbit from the other day from Bluehill Highest November Sea Level Pressure on Record

1. 30.86 in 1887

2. 30.82 in 1891

3. 30.80 in 1996

30.80 in 2013 (pending review)

[Tropopause_Fold]

GFS has three frontal waves, while the EURO has one frontal wave with no further redevelopment along the front before the GLC moves through, however I believe that the colder air will win the battle and force this primary low to near a BUF location while a secondary forms off of DE keeping most of New England all snow.

that's shocking commentary.

[Ginx snewx]

that's shocking commentary.

be nice

[Ginx snewx]

can you guys take this to the anal meteorological scientist nerd provacateur thread?

I always love when you come out of hibernation. You NNE guys have to love the look incoming.