December Pattern Disco- 2013

[forkyfork]

pretty sure you've used SECS before...

"significant east coast snowstorm" defines itself... "gradient pattern" can mean anything

[Typhoon Tip]

Do most SWFEs occur in a gradient pattern ?

 

 

I may not be the one to ask as I am just now getting my head wrapped around what it means, ... but, I don't think that would be the case (necessarily).  You can have enhanced gradients anywhere.  It just depends on what side of the mid level compression in the flow you wind up on.  If that core of the gradient resides NW, than yeah... sure, lows would tend to go polarward prior to your lat/lon.  If the gradient axis is SE, then you lows scoot by underneath you.   

[Tropopause_Fold]

a positive NAO. use the right terms and not made up ones

it's not the same thing though.  

[dryslot]

Next monday's possible event is in a good spot this far out, At least there is a much better chance that more will see something out of this type of system then having to rely on a Miller A or B

[forkyfork]

A positive NAO doesn't always mean a gradient pattern...go look at 2011-2012

i bet there was a stripe of above normal snowfall in SE canada. it's still a "gradient pattern" as you define it... just not over new england. my issue isn't the meteorology, it's using a term that doesn't exist

[dendrite]

"significant east coast snowstorm" defines itself... "gradient pattern" can mean anything

Still a made up term. We know what we mean by gradient pattern so who cares?

[powderfreak]

exactly. i didn't realize folks were confused on what was implied. our mistake i guess. obviously there's always a gradient - that's weather. LOL. 

 

i think if you wanted to take it a step further, you could say the persistence of the SE ridge (general -pna type of set-up) in a gradient pattern will support the mid-level energy passing SW to NE through the tennessee or ohio river valley regions...likely initially giving you a surface reflection heading W of our longitude. but the existence of the anomalous cold in canada forces triple point/secondary etc over or south of our latitude. 

 

as i see it, the good gradient pattern doesn't yield a cutter...an inland runner...or a traditional miller a coastal. 

 

I honestly always pictured like this as a gradient pattern (today's CMC run), while what you described above as a SWFE type pattern.

 

This type of cold NW and warm SE with a very tight thermal boundary between H85 +10C and sub-zero type stuff. 

 

So when you say gradient pattern, that's primarily a favorable thing for SNE?  I always thought you guys didn't like a gradient pattern because it meant snow NW and rain SE, lol.  I thought a SWFE pattern was more what you described above.

 

[dendrite]

I honestly always pictured like this as a gradient pattern (today's CMC run), while what you described above as a SWFE type pattern.

This type of cold NW and warm SE with a very tight thermal boundary between H85 +10C and sub-zero type stuff.

So when you say gradient pattern, that's primarily a favorable thing for SNE? I always thought you guys didn't like a gradient pattern because it meant snow NW and rain SE, lol. I thought a SWFE pattern was more what you described above.

gradient.JPG

It's all related. The question is just where does the greatest thermal gradient setup? NNE? SNE? NYC? S QB?

[Tropopause_Fold]

I honestly always pictured like this as a gradient pattern (today's CMC run), while what you described above as a SWFE type pattern.

 

This type of cold NW and warm SE with a very tight thermal boundary between H85 +10C and sub-zero type stuff. 

 

So when you say gradient pattern, that's primarily a favorable thing for SNE?  I always thought you guys didn't like a gradient pattern because it meant snow NW and rain SE, lol.  I thought a SWFE pattern was more what you described above.

 

gradient.JPG

well...that is a SWFE pattern i'm talking about. but to me, that's the byproduct of the gradient. 

[powderfreak]

i bet there was a stripe of above normal snowfall in SE canada. it's still a "gradient pattern" as you define it... just not over new england. my issue isn't the meteorology, it's using a term that doesn't exist

 

I thought that was still a gradient pattern... I also didn't know it was specific to being favorable to New England or SNE. 

 

That's why when TorontoBlizzard gets all happy over a gradient pattern, I assumed he was thinking he'd be getting more snow and cold being NW of "the gradient". 

[ORH_wxman]

i bet there was a stripe of above normal snowfall in SE canada. it's still a "gradient pattern" as you define it... just not over new england. my issue isn't the meteorology, it's using a term that doesn't exist

 

Only in the AMS glossary..."gradient" and "pattern" are real words in the english dictionary. 50/50 low isn't an AMS word but we'll use it.

 

So therefore, by your definition of unacceptable, you should frown upon the use of 50/50 low, SECS, or even "front end thump". None of those are in the AMS glossary either but all used in a relevant setting in the winter.

[Typhoon Tip]

i bet there was a stripe of above normal snowfall in SE canada. it's still a "gradient pattern" as you define it... just not over new england. my issue isn't the meteorology, it's using a term that doesn't exist

 

 

Welp, expressions come from somewhere;  usually it is the process of discovery that requires they be invented... 

 

Frankly, I have noticed that too much gradient can disrupt cyclogen timing, or even destruct parametrics; and I have seen many more blown forecasts during higher than normal atmospheric gradients ( identified by the goeopotential medium) then when the flow is more relaxed.   Because error frequency "appears" to be elevated during faster maelstroms, I think there is value in identifying those times.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It's all related. The question is just where does the greatest thermal gradient setup? NNE? SNE? NYC? S QB?

right. i feel like it kind of goes hand-in-hand

[powderfreak]

It's all related. The question is just where does the greatest thermal gradient setup? NNE? SNE? NYC? S QB?

 

Ok, yeah that's what I get.  I wasn't sure if when the SNE guys say the term, they are implying its favorable to that particular region. 

 

well...that is a SWFE pattern i'm talking about. but to me, that's the byproduct of the gradient. 

 

I guess I just had them as two sort of different patterns.  One (SWFE) caused a SW-NE gradient and the "gradient pattern" was more the opposite, following climo gradients of SE to NW.  I don't know why I assumed that though. 

[ORH_wxman]

I thought that was still a gradient pattern... I also didn't know it was specific to being favorable to New England or SNE. 

 

That's why when TorontoBlizzard gets all happy over a gradient pattern, I assumed he was thinking he'd be getting more snow and cold being NW of "the gradient". 

 

 

Gradient pattern is used to describe a very cold northern tier of U.S. and Canada while the south-central to southeast US is above normal temperatures. This is favorable for fast moving SWFEs for the northeast...the exact location of the snow can vary.

 

I'm not using "gradient pattern" to describe a tight gradient between Quebec city and Baffin Island...that is irrelevant to us in the context of our weather discussion here.

[dryslot]

It's all related. The question is just where does the greatest thermal gradient setup? NNE? SNE? NYC? S QB?

 

Exactly, And wanting to be on the right side of the thermal gradient to reap the benefits as was the case in 2007/08

[forkyfork]

Only in the AMS glossary..."gradient" and "pattern" are real words in the english dictionary. 50/50 low isn't an AMS word but we'll use it.

 

So therefore, by your definition of unacceptable, you should frown upon the use of 50/50 low, SECS, or even "front end thump". None of those are in the AMS glossary either but all used in a relevant setting in the winter.

i hate those terms too.

[ORH_wxman]

i hate those terms too.

 

 

You use the term "torch" a lot. Is that one in the AMS glossary?

[Tropopause_Fold]

i hate those terms too.

cheer up chuck.

[CoastalWx]

So are we clear?

[powderfreak]

Gradient pattern is used to describe a very cold northern tier of U.S. and Canada while the south-central to southeast US is above normal temperatures. This is favorable for fast moving SWFEs for the northeast...the exact location of the snow can vary.

I'm not using "gradient pattern" to describe a tight gradient between Quebec city and Baffin Island...that is irrelevant to us in the context of our weather discussion here.

That makes sense...i just didn't know if that was the case that gradient pattern mentions were always assuming a gradient like you described above. I figured maybe a gradient pattern could be over TorontoBlizzard or anywhere along the east coast say DC or wherever. I didn't know it was strictly for here locally when you guys say gradient pattern; maybe I should've assumed that to be the case but we describe patterns all different ways and in different terms on here.

Also it would seem gradient patterns see most of their precip from WAA or over-running vs frontogenic forcing or something?

[weathafella]

Wtf...did Forky suddenly become 88 years old? This thread needs to come back home. Liking the first "real snow" threat of the 2013-14 winter next week.

[NJwinter23]

Yes...we have a bit of confluence at 500mb to the northeast of NNE giving us a pretty solid high in Quebec...and this is a fast moving OH/TN valley system and not an amped up cutter-type or coastal. A lot of tracks would give us a pretty good event on that setup.

 

It's why I'd like to see the Euro speed things up and make this a fast mover...the Euro tries to slow it down and amplify it out in the southern plains which is not as good.

 

Given what we know about the euro and it's biases, i think it is fair to believe the euro is a little too amped with its 00z run...And I think we are getting a quicker solution here on this 12z euro..

 

edit: it is actually still way inland with stronger primary this go around...the vort is advecting northward through michigan at 162

 

Well ... I don't have a problem with the expression existing, per se, just for the life of me someone f explain it so it has some kind of clear, accountable, tangible meaning!   

 

Someone just posted "cold north, warm south"    ...ah, no.  Not acceptable.  It's always cooler north of a given latitude, save for some transient very brief synoptic event that inverts the thermal fields -- like an occluded low/seclusion or what-have-you... But we're talking "patterns," not events.

 

It may be a psycho-babble bargaining thing, too... I've sensed that on these emotionally charged weather forums over the years.  When folks' allow this crap to guide their feelings, there is kind of a 4 (or is it 5?) stages of death recovery phenomenon -- for lack of better expression.  The bargaining phase in this case is making up expressions that denies the truth that it's not snowing... hahaha.   Kind of funny actually.. 

 

But that stuff aside, there may very well be some value to the expression;  I just don't have enough of a visualization on what people mean to identify it in any given product analysis and that's annoying. 

 

I think of it as a cold la nina like pattern. Think SE ridge where its raining and above normal in DC, but its colder than normal with snow going on in your back yard.. I share your beef with the term SWFE, since any storm we get tends to have southwest flow aloft, but I accept it and discuss accordingly.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro digging for Mexico today

[dryslot]

Cutters gonna cut

[ORH_wxman]

Euro almost reminds me of 12/16/07 in the way it handles the 12/9 threat.

[powderfreak]

Cutters gonna cut

Hopefully it's wrong. It was pretty darn close to correct on the last storm from like 5 days out when the GFS was way SE. Hopefully it waffles around the next few days. If the ECM keeps showing that same solution over and over, it's hard to ignore it.

At least the CMC isn't a huge cutter like the last storm, that may be a red flag that something's up with the EURO.

[ORH_wxman]

Hopefully it's wrong. It was pretty darn close to correct on the last storm from like 5 days out when the GFS was way SE.

 

 

You'd probably rather have the Euro solution over the GFS or GGEM...more snow for you on that one. That thing trying to run into a 1040 arctic high near Caribou is a pretty good event.

[powderfreak]

You'd probably rather have the Euro solution over the GFS or GGEM...more snow for you on that one. That thing trying to run into a 1040 arctic high near Caribou is a pretty good event.

I heard cutter and vort max going north through Michigan and feared the worst, lol.

The GFS and GGEM are still advisory level snows up here, and I'd rather not flirt with rain or mix. It would be fun to get a region wide event too. Us Vermonters have been talking to ourselves on the last few snow events, lol.

So far away though, could end up with best snows from DC to QC right now.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro almost reminds me of 12/16/07 in the way it handles the 12/9 threat.

Stayed all snow. Sleet got to HFD