Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 This is going to seem simplistic because it is...hopefully not overly so, but I don't see this evolving into a truly hopeless pattern anytime soon at this latitude because there is in fact an abundance of cold on this side of the globe. How long do we search for the mechanism to drive it into our fannies is the million dollar question. nah i don't think that's simplistic. and i agree i don't see it as hopeless either. at this point, i'm basically taking things in 2 to 3 week chunks at most anyway. for now, i'm sticking with the same general theme of the last couple of days...mild this week, cooler (perhaps significantly so for a time) next week, then moderating sometime in the 12th-14th window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 perfectly stated. It's the emotional investment in snow by everyone which leads to the issues. No one cares if someone misses a forecast in May and only get 0.41" of rain instead of 0.94"....but people sure as h*ll care if they get 4" of snow when they were thinking 8-10. Scooter's premise is more applicable to the general population, which really doesn't grasp how chatoc the atmosphere is.....but there still exists an inverse compnent of the phenomenon that I have laid out as present on this board. A given forecaster is profoundly more likely to draw the ire of a soccer mom from Natick, MA, when 1" of rain is forecasted, and her minivan ends up encased in a foot of paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I think you can view the discussion on the upcoming pattern as follows: 1. Many here were touting a gradient pattern the first half of December. This is very likely going to verify...unless we see an almost unheard of model bust across all guidance on the long wave pattern inside of 8 days. 2. Snowfall was dicier. It was said we'd have some "legit chances". It remains to be seen if this part verifies. "Legit chances" is a bit subjective. Obviously if we get a big hit, then it is not subjective...we got hit and therefore by definition it certainly was "legit". If we barely miss a significant snowfall on a SWFE that starts as 1-3" of snow, then some interior sleet/ice, and then rain...I'd personally classify that as a "legit chance"....it just didn't work out. Sometimes the shortwave just ends up a razor's edge too amped up and you get something like that...or the high wasn't quite in the best spot, etc, etc. Those details are not forecastable with any skill at this time range. If we see no storm systems at all or a cutter that goes through Chicago and gives us basically zero frozen precip...then I think "legit chances" did not materialize. 3. Beyond mid-month, there is a lot of uncertainty...I haven't seen many (if any) confident forecasts in here on the pattern post-Dec 15th. There's been talk of potentially the cold retreating into Canada and we become mild...but that is far from a lock. The PV is forecasted to be in Canada at this time and there is enough dateline ridging that we could easily end up on the cold side of the boundary. The signals are very mixed...its pretty amazing actually. Some of the patterns very similar evolved into good cold/snowy patterns for New England, and others completely torched us for a time. Some had a see-saw pattern like 2008. I think the take away message for that time is do not get married to any ideas quite yet. Sometimes you just have to wait until we get closer and this is one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I think you can view the discussion on the upcoming pattern as follows: 1. Many here were touting a gradient pattern the first half of December. This is very likely going to verify...unless we see an almost unheard of model bust across all guidance on the long wave pattern inside of 8 days. 2. Snowfall was dicier. It was said we'd have some "legit chances". It remains to be seen if this part verifies. "Legit chances" is a bit subjective. Obviously if we get a big hit, then it is not subjective...we got hit and therefore by definition it certainly was "legit". If we barely miss a significant snowfall on a SWFE that starts as 1-3" of snow, then some interior sleet/ice, and then rain...I'd personally classify that as a "legit chance"....it just didn't work out. Sometimes the shortwave just ends up a razor's edge too amped up and you get something like that...or the high wasn't quite in the best spot, etc, etc. Those details are not forecastable with any skill at this time range. If we see no storm systems at all or a cutter that goes through Chicago and gives us basically zero frozen precip...then I think "legit chances" did not materialize. 3. Beyond mid-month, there is a lot of uncertainty...I haven't seen many (if any) confident forecasts in here on the pattern post-Dec 15th. There's been talk of potentially the cold retreating into Canada and we become mild...but that is far from a lock. The PV is forecasted to be in Canada at this time and there is enough dateline ridging that we could easily end up on the cold side of the boundary. The signals are very mixed...its pretty amazing actually. Some of the patterns very similar evolved into good cold/snowy patterns for New England, and others completely torched us for a time. Some had a see-saw pattern like 2008. I think the take away message for that time is do not get married to any ideas quite yet. Sometimes you just have to wait until we get closer and this is one of those times. That pattern ultimately evolved into a winner, as January rocked. And we cahsed in on just about all of our "legit" chances in Decemeber, culminating in my double-barreled round of nude twister. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Scooter's premise is more applicable to the general population, which really doesn't grasp how chatoc the atmosphere is.....but there still exists an inverse compnent of the phenomenon that I have laid out as present on this board. A given forecaster is profoundly more likely to draw the ire of a soccer mom from Natick, MA, when 1" of rain is forecasted, and her minivan ends up encased in a foot of paste. It just comes down to how people hear the words legit chance and favorable. Many seem to view it as a lock for snow when chaos and probability aren't necessarily in agreement. Look at 2010. If the polar vortex had a pube less of a lobe of Vorticity rounding the bend, it could have been 1969. We would always take that pattern in a heartbeat, but how in the world are you going to see that coming 10,20,30 days out. Same applies here I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Well, one must also consider the what exactly the term "fail" entails; is it really an idictment of the forecaster, or of the pattern's ability to deliver the goods at any given locale?? I know of some mets ( one in particular) who are a bit on the defensive side, which seems to be a trait endemic to this profession given the inexact nature of it, and tend to overreact when faced with public consternation. I think this is even more prevalent on this particular medium because the stakes are higher, owed to an elevated emotional investment of both sides, thus both parties are more prone to project/misdirect their displeasure towards each other when forced to endure a 32.00000000001 rainer, or a cold, biting cirrus shield. The average hobbyist/poster is more likely to blame the met as a byproduct of frustration, despite being consciously aware of the fact that snowfall in their BY was a casualty of a minescule, meteorological nuance within a sea of chaos. The forecaster, pissed himself that it didn't snow, and already on guard, sensitive to a perceived misconception on the part of the masses regarding his/her forecating ability, is eager to boisterously convey the complexity of this grossly inexact science that the world knows as simply "forecasting". The issue is more a manifestation of folks' psychological maladaptations, than it is a misunderstanding of how chaotic our atmosphere is, and accordingly, how malleable the sensitve weather is in Joe-$hit-the-rag-weenie's BY at any given microsecond. Mine is geared to the pattern delivering the goods, but unfortunately I think it's spun around to the forecaster too. I've seen sentences like "mets calling for cold and snow going to bust..." etc. No, that is not what we called for. Laying out the pattern details and saying we have legit chances and favorable doesn't mean we called for that. Most of us in the back of our minds know what can go wrong. I try to specify what can go wrong to avoid unnecessary weenie complaints, but sometimes that is looked down upon. This is is example of course, not applying it to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The discussions the first week of Nov are entirely similar to our current discussion of the LR. Pretty amazing we are basically in the same type of pattern. Euro Ens again are trying to break down the EPO ridge LR wise while the GFS and CMC say no to that conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It just comes down to how people hear the words legit chance and favorable. Many seem to view it as a lock for snow when chaos and probability aren't necessarily in agreement. Look at 2010. If the polar vortex had a pube less of a lobe of Vorticity rounding the bend, it could have been 1969. We would always take that pattern in a heartbeat, but how in the world are you going to see that coming 10,20,30 days out. Same applies here I think. The non Met folks here have been extremely level headed and sophisticated on LR forecasting, really have not seen anyone bust balls about blown forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 i'm basically taking things in 2 to 3 week chunks at most anyway. for now, Good idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 12z GFS wants us to break out the Ekster SWFE T-shirts. Pretty classic look at D6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 gfs still suggesting that period around the 8th/9th is the first real shot at anything. takes LP up from the deep south, runs a primary into the eastern GL but forces a secondary to take over and shoot out S of SNE. that's a pretty classic look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 12z GFS wants us to break out the Ekster SWFE T-shirts. Pretty classic look at D6. good word choice. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 good word choice. lol. It's almost right out of the 2007 or 2008 playbook. Sfc reflection gets squeezed south of us while the mid-levels are all ripping from the SW giving us a 6-10 hour WAA thump of precip. GFS verbatim tries to hold onto it longer with the vortmax almost extending an inverted trough back to the west as it exits stage right, but those types of details are pretty meaningless. But the guidance has definitely been indicating at 12/8-9 as the first real period of interest for the past week or so now. Hopefully we can get this one inside of 100 hours to take it more seriously. I'd like to see the Euro speed things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 12z GFS wants us to break out the Ekster SWFE T-shirts. Pretty classic look at D6. Let's lock that one. December 2008 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The 3rd wave is a beauty on today's 12z GFS. +/- 150-180h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It's almost right out of the 2007 or 2008 playbook. Sfc reflection gets squeezed south of us while the mid-levels are all ripping from the SW giving us a 6-10 hour WAA thump of precip. GFS verbatim tries to hold onto it longer with the vortmax almost extending an inverted trough back to the west as it exits stage right, but those types of details are pretty meaningless. But the guidance has definitely been indicating at 12/8-9 as the first real period of interest for the past week or so now. Hopefully we can get this one inside of 100 hours to take it more seriously. I'd like to see the Euro speed things up. the good thing about the evolution on the GFS is that wouldn't be a "needle-threader" as modeled on that run. pretty clear-cut opportunity, if you know what i mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 That hp to the north seems to be getting out of there rather quickly though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 the good thing about the evolution on the GFS is that wouldn't be a "needle-threader" as modeled on that run. pretty clear-cut opportunity, if you know what i mean. Yes...we have a bit of confluence at 500mb to the northeast of NNE giving us a pretty solid high in Quebec...and this is a fast moving OH/TN valley system and not an amped up cutter-type or coastal. A lot of tracks would give us a pretty good event on that setup. It's why I'd like to see the Euro speed things up and make this a fast mover...the Euro tries to slow it down and amplify it out in the southern plains which is not as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The non Met folks here have been extremely level headed and sophisticated on LR forecasting, really have not seen anyone bust balls about blown forecasts. There were a couple of people that said to punt December. That's what I am referring to. I think most get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The 7-14 continues to look good for some shots of winter wx. Love the high on the GFS at day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Nice posts from Ray, Scott, Phil, and Will. It's good to see some decent, sane, reasonable discussion going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 There were a couple of people that said to punt December. That's what I am referring to. I think most get it. I think expectations get tossed around of endless winter and that's picked up by some of you guys as more than it is. I think most are embracing an early winter of change. Personally I'm all set with cold and dry. Really hoping we can toss some real threats in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 12z GEM is pretty classic SWFE too for 12/9. Hopefully we can see the Euro trend in that direction so we'll have something to track more seriously by the middle of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 12z GEM is pretty classic SWFE too for 12/9. Hopefully we can see the Euro trend in that direction so we'll have something to track more seriously by the middle of this week. gefs look pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The 7-14 continues to look good for some shots of winter wx. Love the high on the GFS at day 6. Seems we've been reading "day 7-14" for 5 days, though... Should be days 2- 9 by now. Also, can someone explain to me what in the hell a "gradient pattern" is... I can find no formal definition in the AMS Glossary, and cannot recall any formal analysis via 3 levels of synoptic Meteorology while in college. Highly suspect it is an expression evolved on the weather enthusiast, blogosphere, as it started getting bandied about a few years ago, but I never fully understand or even visualized what it is... I also don't really like "southwest flow event", to be honest. Are these facets tested scientifically ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Seems we've been reading "day 7-14" for 5 days, though... Should be days 2- 9 by now. Also, can someone explain to me what in the hell a "gradient pattern" is... I can find no formal definition in the AMS Glossary, and cannot recall any formal analysis via 3 levels of synoptic Meteorology while in college. Highly suspect it is an expression evolved on the weather enthusiast, blogosphere, as it started getting bandied about a few years ago, but I never fully understand or even visualized what it is... I also don't really like "southwest flow event", to be honest. Are these facets tested scientifically ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Seems we've been reading "day 7-14" for 5 days, though... Should be days 2- 9 by now. Also, can someone explain to me what in the hell a "gradient pattern" is... I can find no formal definition in the AMS Glossary, and cannot recall any formal analysis via 3 levels of synoptic Meteorology while in college. Highly suspect it is an expression evolved on the weather enthusiast, blogosphere, as it started getting bandied about a few years ago, but I never fully understand or even visualized what it is... I also don't really like "southwest flow event", to be honest. Are these facets tested scientifically ? Lol Tip, Dec 7-14 is what they are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Seems we've been reading "day 7-14" for 5 days, though... Should be days 2- 9 by now. Also, can someone explain to me what in the hell a "gradient pattern" is... I can find no formal definition in the AMS Glossary, and cannot recall any formal analysis via 3 levels of synoptic Meteorology while in college. Highly suspect it is an expression evolved on the weather enthusiast, blogosphere, as it started getting bandied about a few years ago, but I never fully understand or even visualized what it is... I also don't really like "southwest flow event", to be honest. Are these facets tested scientifically ? The 7th-14th, not 7-14 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Still looks to be a shallow cool fropa leading into Friday... Euro is tardy and perhaps the GFS a tad too fast -- taking the blend on timing. Cold is not in any hurry to rush in.. The GFS persists with it's notion of two or three waves, each progressively colder in p-type, beginning Saturday through next Mon/Tue. Higher res models only so-so agree but do have events. The GFS would imply a chilly rain on Friday, lulls, then later Sat there might be icing...then, the more important wave, which has been on the last 5 cycles really, develops a coastal that appears would be snow. GGEM has two waves...one transitioning into a chilly rain... then a mix bag, weak Miller B deal around D6/7. Euro's not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Lol Tip, Dec 7-14 is what they are saying. Oh, ha ha ha... My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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