December Pattern Disco- 2013

[N. OF PIKE]

That was my misunderstanding then. I went to the beginning of this thread and it seemed like the very start of the month was when we were expecting some good chances at wintry wx.

Its no misunderstanding , that is the thing i never understand w scooter, alot of times when something apparently looks LESS good several days in, "nothing changed". It might be a matter of semantics but its maddening sometimes bc the subtle adjustments/adjectives used to describe the period are less favorable so somethig that looked like a "7/10" pattern now looks "5.5 out of 10" but since there is still "a chance at wintry threats" nothing changed "overall"

Its like we can handle it, we are not morons, it still looks ok, but not As favorable and still could work out and that is OK.

[N. OF PIKE]

6.4" of snow in November at BTV on the lake is a pretty decent little start to the winter.

At home I think I was in the 12-14" range, while JSpin was up near 18"...1500ft was 23" and 3000ft was 45".

My Nov panic worked. Aim low and be surprised.

Live on a mtn that averages 330 and aim low, i think you shall be surprised if it doesn't work out

[CoastalWx]

Its no misunderstanding , that is the thing i never understand w scooter, alot of times when something apparently looks LESS good several days in, "nothing changed". It might be a matter of semantics but its maddening sometimes bc the subtle adjustments/adjectives used to describe the period are less favorable so somethig that looked like a "7/10" pattern now looks "5.5 out of 10" but since there is still "a chance at wintry threats" nothing changed "overall"

Its like we can handle it, we are not morons, it still looks ok, but not As favorable and still could work out and that is OK.

 

What?

 

The period to start out the month was always the 7-14. The beginning of the month was mentioned to have a relaxation period and this was stated by Will and I about 10 days ago. Look back at the posts. Get the weenies out of your ears. The only reason why it sounds like things have changed is because as we started to go forward in time, models began picking up on the GOA trough near mid month...but there was no real way to see that back in November. And as we have stated several times, you play with fire with an Aleutian ridge with means battling a -PNA and GOA trough sometimes. 

 

If anything, I tell it how it is.....I told you the pattern started to look a little concerning a few days ago. If you want my opinion, just ask...but you guys make it difficult sometimes with wording because God forbid you are not cold and snow all the time.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Its no misunderstanding , that is the thing i never understand w scooter, alot of times when something apparently looks LESS good several days in, "nothing changed". It might be a matter of semantics but its maddening sometimes bc the subtle adjustments/adjectives used to describe the period are less favorable so somethig that looked like a "7/10" pattern now looks "5.5 out of 10" but since there is still "a chance at wintry threats" nothing changed "overall"

Its like we can handle it, we are not morons, it still looks ok, but not As favorable and still could work out and that is OK.

 

pickles meltdown underway.

[N. OF PIKE]

pickles meltdown underway.

Dude lol

I dont bank on day 7+forecasts

I just dont get when someone cant say things dont look as favorable for a period as they did before (dec 7-14) , its weird to me.

Everyone knows it could still snow

I guess its like this , obv 2 weeks out a period can be look'd at as favorable or not , and it look'd like a very good pattern (wx details are nill at that time frame), now a week later, details are expected to still be very blury, but it seems the period described looks less likely as % to produce . That is all. There is more knee jerk panic generated from a met response that makes this issue a bigger deal then it ever was. Fwiw my mood is calm and im simply discussing things, i am the sipping on decaf coffee and there is a light flurry outside now.

[CoastalWx]

Dude lol

I dont bank on day 7+forecasts

I just dont get when someone cant say things dont look as favorable for a period as they did before (dec 7-14) , its weird to me.

Everyone knows it could still snow

 

But I don't think the 7-14th really changed. I don't know what more you want...that was our window, but silly you if you think multiple snow events are a lock if a met says that is our best window of opportunity.  Jeez, I thought I was breaking weenie hearts a few days ago, but apparently I need to be harder..lol.

[CoastalWx]

If you want an idea of how this pattern shakes out, loop the ensembles. It's the GEFS, but a similar idea resounds through the other guidance. You can see that we could have a lot of messy SWFE to possibly a miller b deal. This is what you expect when you have a pattern like this, but to pinpoint whether or not a storm is all snow is impossible so far out. Even when the pattern gets more hostile towards the end of the run..it still could be more of an interior deal with SWFE. You really cannot say much more without being irresponsible.

 

 

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_6z/ensloopmref.html

[N. OF PIKE]

Ya its mostly semantics and wording and perspective of a period and trying to get somewhat silly of me for wanting a purely ANALYTICAL/ numbers % approach to how much ave snow would be most likely to shake out of a pattern that looks as good as it did(on nov 24) for a period dec7-14 . i.e if we roll'd that pattern fwd (At that time and lived thru it 100x what would be the ave amount of snow that fell).and how that purely analytical % number looks a tad lower now as we get closer. I know details are nill at the time of a pattern recognition And forecasts are up in the air. I was probably trying to look at something analytically % wise that prob was too abstract /blurry to discuss w confidence

[OSUmetstud]

Here's the thing...most around here when they think of gradient patterns think of dec 07 or 08.  Most wouldn't shake out that way so favorably.  Also, these type of patterns aren't all that different than ones with cold and dry followed by cutters given the lack of blocking on the Atlantic side.  It would be pretty funny if there was really only one wintry "threat" followed by a Pacific flood after all this talk about it from the last two weeks.  

[CoastalWx]

Ya its mostly semantics and wording and perspective of a period and trying to get somewhat silly of me for wanting a purely ANALYTICAL/ numbers % approach to how much ave snow would be most likely to shake out of a pattern that looks as good as it did(on nov 24) for a period dec7-14 . i.e if we roll'd that pattern fwd (At that time and lived thru it 100x what would be the ave amount of snow that fell).and how that purely analytical % number looks a tad lower now as we get closer. I know details are nill at the time of a pattern recognition And forecasts are up in the air. I was probably trying to look at something analytically % wise that prob was too abstract /blurry to discuss w confidence

 

I can always throw out some probs..lol. Dangerous to do, but fun.  I'd say Melrose/Wakefield has 70% chance of seeing 2"+ in that period. 50% of seeing 4"+. All cumulative. Some decent analog years in the package as well as clunkers.

[CoastalWx]

Here's the thing...most around here when they think of gradient patterns think of dec 07 or 08.  Most wouldn't shake out that way so favorably.  Also, these type of patterns aren't all that different than ones with cold and dry followed by cutters given the lack of blocking on the Atlantic side.  It would be pretty funny if there was really only one wintry "threat" followed by a Pacific flood after all this talk about it from the last two weeks.  

 

That's a risk that we discussed for a few days. I do think something is in the cards Dec 7-14th, but I couldn't say what the predominant ptype is obviously.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Here's the thing...most around here when they think of gradient patterns think of dec 07 or 08. Most wouldn't shake out that way so favorably. Also, these type of patterns aren't all that different than ones with cold and dry followed by cutters given the lack of blocking on the Atlantic side. It would be pretty funny if there was really only one wintry "threat" followed by a Pacific flood after all this talk about it from the last two weeks.

These are all great points. If we get lucky we will get a system to ride into the cold air. Right now not sure I feel all that lucky then we warm up.

The biggest question is what happens after it warms. The Atlantic is just giving zero assistance during the cold shots.

[powderfreak]

Ya its mostly semantics and wording and perspective of a period and trying to get somewhat silly of me for wanting a purely ANALYTICAL/ numbers % approach to how much ave snow would be most likely to shake out of a pattern that looks as good as it did(on nov 24) for a period dec7-14 . i.e if we roll'd that pattern fwd (At that time and lived thru it 100x what would be the ave amount of snow that fell).and how that purely analytical % number looks a tad lower now as we get closer. I know details are nill at the time of a pattern recognition And forecasts are up in the air. I was probably trying to look at something analytically % wise that prob was too abstract /blurry to discuss w confidence

You'd never be able to do that...I feel like discussing "patterns" are more geared towards temperatures than snowstorms. But what it all comes down to is raw snowfall, and you just can't predict it.

A crappy pattern in the means can allow for one sneaky snowstorm, but a beautiful pattern can produce nothing. The snow factor will always skew people's thoughts, so that's probably why Coastal drills the caution flags into people's heads. Him or Will say a time frame looks favorable and people literally are already banking on snow, and if it doesn't snow, it's a fail no matter if the features that make it a favorable pattern end up where they were progged.

It's essentially a no-win solution for everyone if it doesn't snow, lol.

[CoastalWx]

The Atlantic may improve slightly, but it's not going to be much help I think. It may try to keep the PV in Canada which will give the nrn tier a chance of winter wx. It's not a terrible Dec 2011 pattern with a black hole over AK. It will try to force the flow more zonal, but luckily the cold is still just over the border. Very difficult to see how it plays out north of 40N. It's probably toast south of NYC.  Personally, I'm not a big fan of mid month, but it's not the blast furnace Dec 2011 was.

[Heisy]

I almost hope there is a cutter like the 00z EURO, you can tell if that verified there would be a better pattern

[Baroclinic Zone]

Interesting 1st week of Dec shaping up. We'll need to watch that piece of energy that dives S along the west coast. There will be a boundary in the area by this time next weekend likely and and wave that develops on it has the potential to produce. Rain/Snow. Mixed. Personally I'd favor interior SNE, C/NNE still since it's early in the season but at this range it's just an educated guess.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Interesting 1st week of Dec shaping up. We'll need to watch that piece of energy that dives S along the west coast. There will be a boundary in the area by this time next weekend likely and and wave that develops on it has the potential to produce. Rain/Snow. Mixed. Personally I'd favor interior SNE, C/NNE still since it's early in the season but at this range it's just an educated guess.

Coud just as easily be miss if the PV is situated too far S and E.

[N. OF PIKE]

I can always throw out some probs..lol. Dangerous to do, but fun. I'd say Melrose/Wakefield has 70% chance of seeing 2"+ in that period. 50% of seeing 4"+. All cumulative. Some decent analog years in the package as well as clunkers.

Ok thanks.. Thats what i like to see or how i process/ think sometimes w snow chances.

[CoastalWx]

You'd never be able to do that...I feel like discussing "patterns" are more geared towards temperatures than snowstorms. But what it all comes down to is raw snowfall, and you just can't predict it.

A crappy pattern in the means can allow for one sneaky snowstorm, but a beautiful pattern can produce nothing. The snow factor will always skew people's thoughts, so that's probably why Coastal drills the caution flags into people's heads. Him or Will say a time frame looks favorable and people literally are already banking on snow, and if it doesn't snow, it's a fail no matter if the features that make it a favorable pattern end up where they were progged.

It's essentially a no-win solution for everyone if it doesn't snow, lol.

 

Thanks. Yeah I think people hear favorable and think automatic snow, but then if it doesn't happen..it's always a fail. However, if we discuss that even though it's "favorable" snow still may not happen...we sound wishy-washy and unsure. The fact of the matter is, we aren't totally sure and it's difficult to convey probability. A pattern like this may work out 6 or 7 out of 10 times...but who's to say where this ends up?  My gut is that I do feel 1 maybe 2 deals are in the cards from that 7-15 timeframe...but I can't say if it's all snow or not. There is a low prob it is cold and dry..but my feeling isn't sold on a totally dry deal.

[CoastalWx]

Ok thanks.. Thats what i like to see or how i process/ think sometimes w snow chances.

 

Well that isn't practical in this field..lol. However, it's a weather board so I'll have a little fun.

[N. OF PIKE]

A pattern like this may work out 6 or 7 out of 10 times...but who's to say where this ends up? .

Nobody has those answers and i surely dont expect anyone to. I like when you have a little fun w the numbers/%. I know it certainly isn't practical wrt a forecast or for clients. But those are the things hobbyists sometimes like to hear. Even thou your numbers are ball park guesstimates, i like to know when chances seem 3/10 or 6/10 etc.

It seemd like dec 2011 would have been a 1/10 chance to produce or less

[CoastalWx]

Nobody has those answers and i surely dont expect anyone to. I like when you have a little fun w the numbers/%. I know it certainly isn't practical wrt a forecast or for clients. But those are the things hobbyists sometimes like to hear. Even thou your numbers are ball park guesstimates, i like to know when chances seem 3/10 or 6/10 etc.

It seemd like dec 2011 would have been a 1/10 chance to produce or less

 

Dec 2011 (even though NNE had some events) looked bad from the beginning. I don't get that vibe right now...but I'm not a fan of the look near mid month. In all honesty though..it may not last long either so I wouldn't cancel December like some are. Remember where you live. If you only avg 10" for the month...there is a reason why.

[Damage In Tolland]

Not bad

 

 

pic.twitter.com/QKdqARKmdw

 

 

[CoastalWx]

There is a lot of model disagreement from what I see near Greenland and western AK area. This is likely due to some ensemble members building ridging and others holding back. It also looks like any tropical forcing will not be anomalous in the warmer phases. So, while I am no expert like some...makes me think any hostile GOA trough may not last too long.

[forkyfork]

Not bad

pic.twitter.com/QKdqARKmdw

you read bastardi? lol

[weathafella]

That euro system on the op model is a swfe for the record. It brings a lot of front end snow and would probably bleed further south if it set up as shown.

[mahk_webstah]

The Atlantic may improve slightly, but it's not going to be much help I think. It may try to keep the PV in Canada which will give the nrn tier a chance of winter wx. It's not a terrible Dec 2011 pattern with a black hole over AK. It will try to force the flow more zonal, but luckily the cold is still just over the border. Very difficult to see how it plays out north of 40N. It's probably toast south of NYC.  Personally, I'm not a big fan of mid month, but it's not the blast furnace Dec 2011 was.

Are we not also helped by the fact that Canada has been so cold and there is snowcover?  It is not like it is just going to torch.  Also, haven't I been reading that there is a tendency for high pressure over Quebec, which would allow for good radiational cooling and seeping cold?  Even if the pattern goes hostile for a while in the Pacific, wouldn't it have to persist for awhile to warm Canada?  I always feel hopeful when there is good cold in our side of Canada.  Also, there is a multi day signal to build some high pressure near Greenland which would also help.

[Ginx snewx]

That euro system on the op model is a swfe for the record. It brings a lot of front end snow and would probably bleed further south if it set up as shown.

yes it is Leon.

[CoastalWx]

Are we not also helped by the fact that Canada has been so cold and there is snowcover?  It is not like it is just going to torch.  Also, haven't I been reading that there is a tendency for high pressure over Quebec, which would allow for good radiational cooling and seeping cold?  Even if the pattern goes hostile for a while in the Pacific, wouldn't it have to persist for awhile to warm Canada?  I always feel hopeful when there is good cold in our side of Canada.  Also, there is a multi day signal to build some high pressure near Greenland which would also help.

 

Yeah it helps having the PV near Hudson bay for sure. We probably will see a strong gradient develop along the nrn tier with cold in Canada and milder deep south and southeast. It helps that Canada is cold, but if the flow becomes more zonal, then it's tough for it to penetrate south. Also, if we see troughing develop out west then the storm track is more inland. These are details we just don't know yet...but yes it is much better that Canada is cold.

[CoastalWx]

yes it is Leon.

 

It is, and I would not rule out something sneaky this weekend too.