CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Sounds like it's standing room only on the Tobin. We have to remember that the first snowfall over 1" across the region typically doesn't happen until that 7th (BDL) to 14th (BOS/PVD) time frame. I mean maybe Will has a case to gripe in ORH because their long term average first date for 1"+ snowfall is 11/27 (and even they had that 0.5" earlier this month). Yeah it's always tough for snow in this area before mid December to be honest. You and I both probably remember some bad Decembers. In fact, in my mind I used to treat December snow as gravy. January and February were our months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Also if you recall, I did mention the ridge retrograding in a few posts last week. The models did not Necessarily have a GOA trough, but that is Inherently a risk when you have that. Wait a couple of days to see what happens, then we'll go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I don't think anything changed. As we started to go out in time since Wednesday or so, the GOA feature showed up. It's not like things just trended warmer. The weeklies even showed a SE ridge expanding north albeit weak. The 7-14 is the hopeful period. It's not a lock, but offers the best chance. Nothing is ever a lock in meteorology. I really wouldn't panic about winter or even this month. Not yet anyways. That was my misunderstanding then. I went to the beginning of this thread and it seemed like the very start of the month was when we were expecting some good chances at wintry wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 All my life, early Decembers have produced maybe 20% of the time. That's a large sample. Keep expectations real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I know the first week better than most...and it's usually not quite ready for prime time. Mets are targeting 12/7-14 and that seems reasonable. Fair enough, definitely seems like a shot at some sort of overrunning with deep trough ejecting from the SW. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Guys get caught up too much in who says what in the long range. It's all reliant mainly on models, recognition and analogs that are subject to change. Was looking at this tonight. You can REALLY see why guys are chomping at the bit already. Recent Decembers have spoiled us. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/bossnw.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Yeah it's always tough for snow in this area before mid December to be honest. You and I both probably remember some bad Decembers. In fact, in my mind I used to treat December snow as gravy. January and February were our months. My best December in RI was probably 1989, which I don't really remember at all. 2003 I was at college, 2008 and 2009 I was working at DVN. SE gales FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Guys get caught up too much in who says what in the long range. It's all reliant mainly on models, recognition and analogs that are subject to change. Was looking at this tonight. You can REALLY see why guys are chomping at the bit already. Recent Decembers have spoiled us. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/bossnw.shtml And keep in mind that most often the snow was in the second half of December in those stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 And keep in mind that most often the snow was in the second half of December in those stats. It's all going pretty much like one would expect for a non Nino extreme winter. Heck it's cold. Snow for the holidays is a great thing and it's still many moons off. I just don't want to keep seeing cold/squashed. Had enough with cold/surpressed a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 00z GFS sags the front south of us by Friday. Balmy 55-60 forecasts replaced by 30-35 snowy forecasts? Just one run though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 00z GFS sags the front south of us by Friday. Balmy 55-60 forecasts replaced by 30-35 snowy forecasts? Just one run though... I didn't see much snow based on the 925's...but at least we maintain the colder weather overall making the ski resorts/PF happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/407020172096991232/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Was hoping for it to be a little cooler to ring in December, but ah well. I remember December kinda sucked last year as well. Winter doesn't even start until the 21st anyway. Still early guys, no need to panic yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Still no reason to panic for the month. While it may not be as favorable as next week, there are signs more ridging near and NE of Greenland tries to punch in from the northeast to keep the PV near Hudson Bay after next week. Also some signs on both models this GOA trough may try to move out towards the end of the run. With the strong zonal flow..it also may allow for weaker disturbances which is a good thing because anything amplifying would furnace us. The weaker system idea isn't a lock, but something I surmise. Anyways mid month definitely turns less favorable, but I don't see a prolonged torch. It still would keep interior and esp NNE in the game I think. Obviously this can change and personally I'm not a fan of that look at all...but it's not a December 2011 look by any means. Give it another couple of days to see what happens...models will probably warm and cool with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 Euro back to its senses on 00z run..Blasts the cold front thru Friday afternoon/evening. You wonder though if it's too far south with the ice/snow next weekend as it keeps first wave way south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Euro back to its senses on 00z run..Blasts the cold front thru Friday afternoon/evening. You wonder though if it's too far south with the ice/snow next weekend as it keeps first wave way south of us. Probably not. Nothing to really amplify this system unless the front stalls. Cold and dry FTW and then cutters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 Probably not. Nothing to really amplify this system unless the front stalls. Cold and dry FTW and then cutters? That was the point..With the SE ridge..the front shouldn't be that far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Probably not. Nothing to really amplify this system unless the front stalls. Cold and dry FTW and then cutters? Kidding BTW...but it's not at all impossible. Well in other news, 06z GFS develops a monster ridge into NE Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 Still no reason to panic for the month. While it may not be as favorable as next week, there are signs more ridging near and NE of Greenland tries to punch in from the northeast to keep the PV near Hudson Bay after next week. Also some signs on both models this GOA trough may try to move out towards the end of the run. With the strong zonal flow..it also may allow for weaker disturbances which is a good thing because anything amplifying would furnace us. The weaker system idea isn't a lock, but something I surmise. Anyways mid month definitely turns less favorable, but I don't see a prolonged torch. It still would keep interior and esp NNE in the game I think. Obviously this can change and personally I'm not a fan of that look at all...but it's not a December 2011 look by any means. Give it another couple of days to see what happens...models will probably warm and cool with each run. You say favorbale next week..and then forecast cold and dry with a cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 You say favorbale next week..and then forecast cold and dry with a cutter? I didn't forecast anything. Favorable means that pattern can produce, but nothing is a lock in weather. Winter wx means anything from all snow to snow-->rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 November came in at -2.8 at BDL..WOW.. Many forecasts had +2.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I do think at least one event or so will try to come up from the OV as indicated by the op runs. Don't know if it's snow or snow to rain, but it will be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 lol just remember the Nov 1st panics. Happy birthday young man 6.4" of snow in November at BTV on the lake is a pretty decent little start to the winter. At home I think I was in the 12-14" range, while JSpin was up near 18"...1500ft was 23" and 3000ft was 45". My Nov panic worked. Aim low and be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Probably not. Nothing to really amplify this system unless the front stalls. Cold and dry FTW and then cutters?Yeah seems to be the same on the GFS...the cold noses in and pushes everything way south. Again, there's not much wintery precip down south either, most of the training moisture is in the warm sector. Even if the boundary was north, it's still not going to bring much, the best lift is south of the fronts. Like that last system, there's just no moisture getting thrown into the cold dome from anywhere. Most of the US goes dry when these cold shots come in, then the precip starts up again once it warms a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 Yeah seems to be the same on the GFS...the cold noses in and pushes everything way south. Again, there's not much wintery precip down south either, most of the training moisture is in the warm sector. Even if the boundary was north, it's still not going to bring much, the best lift is south of the fronts. Like that last system, there's just no moisture getting thrown into the cold dome from anywhere. Most of the US goes dry when these cold shots come in, then the precip starts up again once it warms a bit. He was kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 He was kiddingAbout what? The possibility of it going cold and dry with nothing to amplify the southern stream?I don't think he was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 Who was saying Don S was torching this month? donsutherland.1 __DCA___ +0.4 _NYC_ --0.2 _BOS_ --0.3 _ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 About what? The possibility of it going cold and dry with nothing to amplify the southern stream? I don't think he was. I do think we'll see at least one threat during the 7-8 day period around the 7-14th of the month. Threat being anything from snow to snow or ice--> rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I do think we'll see at least one threat during the 7-8 day period around the 7-14th of the month. Threat being anything from snow to snow or ice--> rain.Ahh I thought he was talking about all that over-running precip along the boundary way down south in like the Dec 7/8 time frame.If that boundary doesn't get way south, we'd probably likely see a cutter right after in that 12/9-11 range. I could envision a SWFE in there as long as we can get some good cold to settle in next weekend following the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Ahh I thought he was talking about all that over-running precip along the boundary way down south in like the Dec 7/8 time frame. In that case, it wouldn't shock me to see it mostly dry. The euro argues for a very brief transition to sleet or snow at the tail end, but I see nothing exciting from that yet. Still a little early so maybe it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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