Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 forget it I remembered 30.84 = 1044, petty close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Nice "wintry appeal" today with the chill. Good day to get in the Christmas spirit. Not too thrilled about the prospects for real wintry weather on the horizon, nothing meaningful at least. Maybe a few more mood flakes in the next couple days and Wednesday looks like a lost cause for the winter folks. End of the week looks warm with a trough centered out west. Maybe some more beneficial rains with a SLP riding up along the boundary. Pattern just looks hostile to me thru mid month. Maybe we can sneak in some early season snows but I'm not optimistic. Yeah I think it's going to be real hard for us around here. December could turn out to be a clunker. Hopefully after Christmas we can change our fortunes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Yeah I think it's going to be real hard for us around here. December could turn out to be a clunker. Hopefully after Christmas we can change our fortunes. Well with all respect , for nov 30'th the first half of december looks fine. Until Will shows up and poo poo's this period, we are alright. So we have no idea if we want our fortunes to turn in late december , since they could turn in a week. Like i said, when u average forty inches (35 where you are) most weeks in winter end up dissapointing if you are a winter/snow lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Well with all respect , for nov 30'th the first half of december looks fine. Until Will shows up and poo poo's this period, we are alright. So we have no idea if we want our fortunes to turn in late december , since they could turn in a week. Like i said, when u average forty inches (35 where you are) most weeks in winter end up dissapointing if you are a winter/snow lover. Good point. And wow to be honest I didn't know taunton only averages 35 inches. I thought it was more than that to be truthful, but I have never really checked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Euro ens not very appetizing in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 First 10 days of December canceled if they (Euro Ens) are correct.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Good point. And wow to be honest I didn't know taunton only averages 35 inches. I thought it was more than that to be truthful, but I have never really checkedAt the gtg i think will and or Scott said forty but when i look it up it is lower. Now if you go 10 miles north to north Easton or nw you will average a good ten inches more.Bridgewater and Raynham and taunton are often dividing line and on rain side while , mansfield over to N. Easton are snow and on other side of some coastal fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 First 10 days of December canceled if they (Euro Ens) are correct.... Huh this is for NYC 30.11.2013 12 GMT -8.8 °C 01.12.2013 12 GMT -1.6 °C 02.12.2013 12 GMT -0.5 °C 03.12.2013 12 GMT -1.1 °C 04.12.2013 12 GMT -1.4 °C 05.12.2013 12 GMT 4.8 °C 06.12.2013 12 GMT 8.8 °C 07.12.2013 12 GMT 6.2 °C 08.12.2013 12 GMT -6.0 °C 09.12.2013 12 GMT -8.6 °C 10.12.2013 12 GMT -7.0 °C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 I recall a few times over the last few months where the Euro ens were just plain wrong with warm patterns and were beaten by the Ggem ens and yes even the awful Gefs. This whole thing reeks of that happening again. Just a gut suspicion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 We loose the epo we torch its pretty simple read Don S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 We loose the epo we torch its pretty simple read Don S If it were only that simple, also is it transistional? ie a few days and does the pattern reload? Assumptions about AO state at the time of relaxation? Its never simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 We loose the epo we torch its pretty simple read Don S If it were only that simple, also is it transistional? ie a few days and does the pattern reload? Assumptions about AO state at the time of relaxation? Its never simple. We'll see if it's right (think it is but hope I'm wrong) but if it is...we roast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 We'll see if it's right (think it is but hope I'm wrong) but if it is...we roast. Wait so you've abandoned all your thoughts of snow/ice/overrunning/below normal Dec7-15 and roasting us now? WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 We don't really lose the dateline ridge at all. The problem is the GOA creating zonal flow. We are on the fence on the euro ensembles. Personally I think they look tough or us, but I'd like to see another two to three days worth of runs to see how it goes. If we lost the dateline ridge then it's game over, but we still may have enough of a push south with the dateline ridge. I also think this GOA trough may be a transient feature, but that's more of a guess. Just understand we may not have a pretty mid month, but again it's early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Huh this is for NYC 30.11.2013 12 GMT -8.8 °C 01.12.2013 12 GMT -1.6 °C 02.12.2013 12 GMT -0.5 °C 03.12.2013 12 GMT -1.1 °C 04.12.2013 12 GMT -1.4 °C 05.12.2013 12 GMT 4.8 °C 06.12.2013 12 GMT 8.8 °C 07.12.2013 12 GMT 6.2 °C 08.12.2013 12 GMT -6.0 °C 09.12.2013 12 GMT -8.6 °C 10.12.2013 12 GMT -7.0 °C Just looking at the pattern on the Euro Ens. It's a long way out and of course it can change, but it's not a classic look for winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Phil is right though. Ensembles are fairly vomit worthy. Hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Just looking at the pattern on the Euro Ens. It's a long way out and of course it can change, but it's not a classic look for winter weather. thats not a first ten days of Dec non winter look. Its below normal 7/10 days,NYC 850 normal is right around 0 to +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Phil is right though. Ensembles are fairly vomit worthy. Hope it's wrong. What days are you talking about day 0 + 13-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 What days are you talking about day 0 + 13-15? Yeah those days and extrapolating beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 What days are you talking about day 0 + 13-15? La la land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 We'll see if it's right (think it is but hope I'm wrong) but if it is...we roast. Wait so you've abandoned all your thoughts of snow/ice/overrunning/below normal Dec7-15 and roasting us now? WTF? No I'm talking mid-month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Panic gripping weenies. My bladder is gripping me on the nj tpke. I don't worry till the solstice ala Lett. Lett started like this, warmed for a spell....then hammer around 12/26-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Panic gripping weenies. My bladder is gripping me on the nj tpke. I don't worry till the solstice ala Lett. Lett started like this, warmed for a spell....then hammer around 12/26-7. Pepsi bottle? diametrically opposed Ens Euro versus GEFS CMC. Hope we can squeeze a system in the period the Mets have outlined for weeks then roll the dice. I still think the 14th through 21st is above normal. Big storm 21st time frame? Hopefully not a Grincher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I also think weenies are thinking winter cancel. No, it just means it possibly might be tough mid month. I'd relax a bit. December 2008 wasnt a great pattern except for about 4 days in which we got almost 30" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I also think weenies are thinking winter cancel. No, it just means it possibly might be tough mid month. I'd relax a bit. December 2008 wasnt a great pattern except for about 4 days in which we ot almost 30" of snow. Its unreal sometimes, you would think we should have 20 inches and temps -6 every Dec. Lets see what happens when we get closer in time. Terms like roast thrown about are probably as bad as weenies cancelling winter though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 What in the sam hell is going on around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 We loose the epo we torch its pretty simple read Don S We've been hammering this point for weeks on this subforum without anyone else's help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 18z GFS wants no part of the Euro's balmy late week. Sped up the boundary if anything, now has it through ...though weakly so, but through nonetheless, by 18z on Thursday. Also ... weak polar high arms into NNE enough to actually put down a CAD structure to the PP on Friday, and resulting in over-flop cold rain or even ice perhaps. Not even in the same ball park of the Euro's blithe warm sector penetration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I mean it's only December. If we roast, that does not mean it's for the whole winter. Could be a toasty second half of December, that isn't winter cancel however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 But gradient pattern still looks like a go next weekend and the following week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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