N. OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Donnie Baseball says better clean up thru mid DEC snow while you can. December 2013 Idea (Revised): It is rare that I wind up revising my monthly thoughts, but in this case it is necessary given the consistency of the data and now clear picture with respect to the Arctic Oscillation. Hence, my initial December idea (#131) is not likely to verify. The partial teleconnection cases and exceptional consistency in which 2008 was highlighted as the leading teleconnection analog for December since that time argue strongly for a revision. The final December map based on those partial cases is as follows: Those anomalies likey reasonably represent the outcome. The notable cold coming to the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest for the December 3-10 period should produce cold anomalies that won't be erased. At the same time, some pieces of the cold air mass will likely bleed eastward with perhaps a strong cold shot toward mid-month. But then, as the EPO likely rises, what has been the beginning of the end of the transitional period leading to winter will likely yield to more persistent mild weather in parts of the CONUS. In sum, Canada, the Northern and Central Plains and Pacific Northwest are likely to be colder than normal for December. The Southeast into the Middle Atlantic region will likely be warmer than normal. New England could be near normal with some below normal anomalies in northern New England. The Southwest and Southern Plains should also be warmer than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Picks, you would be happy for Dec 2008. Not that it will follow that year...but just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Donnie Baseball says better clean up thru mid DEC snow while you can. He does link 2008....a month and winter that performed for us quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 He does link 2008....a month and winter that performed for us quite well. It's a matter of being able to sneak events in when it's cold. That month we did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 It's been darn impressive. Is it over-performing? It seems it was fairly well modeled...but I think the gist of your post is that it's certainly not warmer than progged and that's definitely true.overperforming, colder than progged with lead time, shorter stints of warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 overperforming, colder than progged with lead time, shorter stints of warmth. Good post! The cold after the warm storm was progged pedestrian until very close in. Not pedestrian! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I respect Don but as I posted in the main page, EPO does have transitional states which he did not account for. Our progged first two weeks will come in below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 And Don did say in the post picked quoted that New England is normal in temperature, colder than normal NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I think all Don is saying is that there is a warmer risk to the East Coast near mid month and I agree with him. It doesn't have to mean blow torch, but it's the risk. The east coast is Maine to FL. If that happens from NYC on south then that is an overall warm east coast despite it being cooler here. I wouldn't worry about the fine details so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 I thought this holiday weekend cold shot performed asmodelled.It was shown to be cold from days out and it ended up being almost exactly like was modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Friday looks awful..1 day of 50's it appears..though you wonder if timing of the arctic front speeds up as it has all cold season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I thought this holiday weekend cold shot performed asmodelled.It was shown to be cold from days out and it ended up being almost exactly like was modeled. yeah i agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Friday looks awful..1 day of 50's it appears..though you wonder if timing of the arctic front speeds up as it has all cold seasonI think that might happen and could ease some of the awfulness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Pearl Harbor Day or soon after we should be able to party for a spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Meanwhile, the 7-14 could have a couple of dumbfounding events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I think all Don is saying is that there is a warmer risk to the East Coast near mid month and I agree with him. It doesn't have to mean blow torch, but it's the risk. The east coast is Maine to FL. If that happens from NYC on south then that is an overall warm east coast despite it being cooler here. I wouldn't worry about the fine details so far out. I believe he is forecasting for an entire month, will be interesting to see Dec 31 how the temp anomalies shake out. the EPO has given him fits, he was not including it in his Nov discussions which hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Friday looks awful..1 day of 50's it appears..though you wonder if timing of the arctic front speeds up as it has all cold season 45-47 max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Meanwhile, the 7-14 could have a couple of dumbfounding events. whats to like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 45-47 maxI hope so but it looks ugly as modeled . That's a big warm surge ahead of the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 whats to like?Hes talking about sleet south of pike events. I'd love a good old fashioned ice storm so hope his forecast is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I hope so but it looks ugly as modeled . That's a big warm surge ahead of the front Saturday could be mild if the front slows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Hes talking about sleet south of pike events. I'd love a good old fashioned ice storm so hope his forecast is right I thought he would catch onto that. I could also see a gutter or two ripped down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Saturday could be mild if the front slows.When have fronts slowed this season? It will speed up if anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 When have fronts slowed this season? It will speed up if anything It's a sharp troughing diving south into the Rockies. All it takes is for a wave to develop along it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 It's a sharp troughing diving south into the Rockies. All it takes is for a wave to develop along it.Put me in the faster camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Pearl Harbor Day or soon after we should be able to party for a spell. not seeing a positive EPO here, great look, 2008 had a great storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Put me in the faster camp I'm not saying it will or won't..but this is a setup where a 2 day warm spell would not surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 As we stated, the GEFS are much better looking then the euro ensembles...but we've seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 As we stated, the GEFS are much better looking then the euro ensembles...but we've seen that before.Sure did GEFS schooled Euro ENS with the EPO ridge mid Nov for Tday weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Sure did GEFS schooled Euro ENS with the EPO ridge mid Nov for Tday weekend I think all guidance did fairly well iirc. Anyways, lets hope we can squeeze in some events after next weekend. The pattern certainly supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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