ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 It's going to mess them up for sure....and even the regular MJO guidance is getting screwed around with by these Kelvin waves enhancing and suppressing the MJO convection. However, a lot of guidance does edge it towards the warmer east coast phases albeit weakly. Definitely not a high confidence forecast. Nothing has been for the past month. GEFS are a pretty good look for us through mid-month and probably a bit beyond. The EC ensembles look more precarious after about the 14th as we see the ridge retro pretty far west in the couple days leading up to that. Hopefully the GEFS are closer to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 GEFS are a pretty good look for us through mid-month and probably a bit beyond. The EC ensembles look more precarious after about the 14th as we see the ridge retro pretty far west in the couple days leading up to that. Hopefully the GEFS are closer to correct. Yeah no kidding. Wouldn't be the first time either....look back at Feb. But in the meantime, it could get interesting after next weekend. I like the overall look for that time you outlined in your earlier post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Yeah no kidding. Wouldn't be the first time either....look back at Feb. But in the meantime, it could get interesting after next weekend. I like the overall look for that time you outlined in your earlier post. Yeah I like the Dec 7-14 period right now. Probably a couple shots in there anyway. Hopefully we don't miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The op model looks potentially snowy in that 12/7-14 time frame with us on the good side of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The op model looks potentially snowy in that 12/7-14 time frame with us on the good side of the boundary. El Gradiante pattern...ensembles have been showing this too, though obviously with less fine detail as OP runs. That could be chance #1 in the pattern (that look at the end there around 12/9-10)...I think another chance comes in the 12/12-12/14 range too...but obviously this type of flow is very difficult to forecast storm timing. Its a fast flow once it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 EURO LR looks like an ice setup for Mid-Altantic on North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I don't think they were posted last night or this morning but how were the weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 DT talking suppression with mid atlantic snows/ ice while north of philly sees nothing.. Doubt it with the SE ridge..Think north trends folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 12z euro ens really starting to lower heights in the GOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 12z euro ens really starting to lower heights in the GOA. Big Scooter caution flags beginning to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 12z euro ens really starting to lower heights in the GOA. That's not what we want....right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 That's not what we want....right? not at all what we want. we'd be OK through about mid-month but then the flow would, in all likelihood, turn zonal across the CONUS and would flood with PAC air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 That's not what we want....right? not at all what we want. we'd be OK through about mid-month but then the flow would, in all likelihood, turn zonal across the CONUS and would flood with PAC air. Definitely a trend (3 runs) but hopefully wrong or if correct, transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Definitely a trend (3 runs) but hopefully wrong or if correct, transient. Interesting that its all alone but as we know we did just fine in Jan and Feb with low heights there, its not a one pony show. Lots of other things to look at especially with LR Ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 The euro ensembles also tried to build a ridge into NE Greenland that at least kept the PV still near Hudson Bay. At least the cold wasn't wiped out of Canada. It's funny because the ridge doesn't retro a lot and is locked by the dateline, but a sharp trough popped in the GOA. Makes me wonder if it's more temporary than anything, and we don't know for sure if it ends up forming like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Well the euro ensembles didn't get really worse so that's good. The positives: After next weekend we may have a couple of chances of snow. I say chance because the track still could be over our fannies..but we will have some colder air around. The vortex stays on our side of the Pole near Hudson Bay even as GOA troughing develops. This will at least keep colder air close by. Ridging into Greenland (not really a -NAO) will help keep the vortex near Hudson Bay Dateline ridging alive and well. The negatives: There is really one big negative. The GOA troughing will limit cross polar flow and attempt to flood the country will more milder Pacific air. The GEFS continue to look the best with more of a lack of any GOA troughing. Hopefully they are right, but I have a feeling they may cave a bit. If that troughing isn't strong, that is a SWFE city pattern with storms being forced to move overhead. It's possible people (esp NNE) still could do well if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Holy cold records this month, first sub zero readings of the year in NNE. first time at some spots in Nov since 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Holy cold records this month, first sub zero readings of the year in NNE. first time at some spots in Nov since 1989 All of canada is covered in snow. Hopefully we are building a solid foundation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Well the euro ensembles didn't get really worse so that's good. The positives: After next weekend we may have a couple of chances of snow. I say chance because the track still could be over our fannies..but we will have some colder air around. The vortex stays on our side of the Pole near Hudson Bay even as GOA troughing develops. This will at least keep colder air close by. Ridging into Greenland (not really a -NAO) will help keep the vortex near Hudson Bay Dateline ridging alive and well. The negatives: There is really one big negative. The GOA troughing will limit cross polar flow and attempt to flood the country will more milder Pacific air. The GEFS continue to look the best with more of a lack of any GOA troughing. Hopefully they are right, but I have a feeling they may cave a bit. If that troughing isn't strong, that is a SWFE city pattern with storms being forced to move overhead. It's possible people (esp NNE) still could do well if that happens. good summary. canadian ensembles seem to lend support to the euro. gefs are definitely far more favorable. stronger ridging into greenland, PV is displaced even further south and much weaker - if any - troughing in the GOA. i feel like this is always the case though. and, 06z ens made some moves toward the euro anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 good summary. canadian ensembles seem to lend support to the euro. gefs are definitely far more favorable. stronger ridging into greenland, PV is displaced even further south and much weaker - if any - troughing in the GOA. i feel like this is always the case though. and, 06z ens made some moves toward the euro anyway. Yeah they'll probably cave a bit. If the euro relaxed even a little, It still probably would be a decent look for us because it's a fast flow bringing weaker systems close by with cold nearby as well. We'll see. No need to grab the toasters yet. If anything, the tropical forcing for the "warmer" stages of the MJO may not be all that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Think at least a one week torch is likely +epo/+ao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Sounds like we can be ok in New Eng with that type of pattern. Sounds like a gradient deal where maybe south of NYC is not so good. I think we'd take our chances with that mid and late month esp with all that cold just over the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Sounds like we can be ok in New Eng with that type of pattern. Sounds like a gradient deal where maybe south of NYC is not so good. I think we'd take our chances with that mid and late month esp with all that cold just over the border perhaps. we'll just have to see how things evolve. verbatim the ec ens are turning mild toward the end of the run across the CONUS as the flow flattens. but like scooter said...a subtle shift in the right direction and it's OK. of course, subtle shift the other way, and it's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Sounds like we can be ok in New Eng with that type of pattern. Sounds like a gradient deal where maybe south of NYC is not so good. I think we'd take our chances with that mid and late month esp with all that cold just over the border It depends how strong the GOA low is. A gradient pattern doesn't mean snow near 42N. It could set up near 45N or 40N. It just refers to the type of pattern where we have a locally strong thermal gradient in a matter of a few hundred miles. Verbatim the pattern shown isn't horrible...but that's assuming models don't trend stronger with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Holy cold records this month, first sub zero readings of the year in NNE. first time at some spots in Nov since 1989 Crazy http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KVTLYNDO7&month=11&day=30&year=2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 it would be nice if we could get that tuesday system to wrap up - even if it's just a rainer i'd prefer some rain/wind to nothing. otherwise it's sort of a doldrums week until the weekend or so. from there the whole set-up gets complicated with boundaries trying to sag through the region with waves moving along 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 it would be nice if we could get that tuesday system to wrap up - even if it's just a rainer i'd prefer some rain/wind to nothing. otherwise it's sort of a doldrums week until the weekend or so. from there the whole set-up gets complicated with boundaries trying to sag through the region with waves moving along 'em. Kevin may owe me an apology after saying I was crabby and turning the bored against me because I said it may be boring and turning milder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Classic SWFE on the euro at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 it would be nice if we could get that tuesday system to wrap up - even if it's just a rainer i'd prefer some rain/wind to nothing. otherwise it's sort of a doldrums week until the weekend or so. from there the whole set-up gets complicated with boundaries trying to sag through the region with waves moving along 'em. The liking the period posts have diminished now the complicated posts appear. on the fence it seems is where we will be ala 07/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 The liking the period posts have diminished now the complicated posts appear. on the fence it seems is where we will be ala 07/08. Well the liking period was and has been around the 7-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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