Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 It could start out as a mix, but we'll probably furnace. After that we may have a little fun, but I'm a little concerned about mid month. Some hints it may turn milder on the east Coast..but obviously we don't know how far north. And Ryan was so excited about that period yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 And Ryan was so excited about that period yesterday Well it may turn active, but the last few ensemble runs have started to fire up the Pacific jet and turn the flow more zonal in response to lower heights in AK. We'll see because the GEFS and even GEM don't really have that feature, but that doesn't mean the euro ensemble is wrong. The ridge remains over the Aleutians so there is a chance this is a temporary feature like what we'll see this week with the cold moving down the west coast. In the meantime before hand, we may have some cold and storms which is what Ryan was referring to I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 Well it may turn active, but the last few ensemble runs have started to fire up the Pacific jet and turn the flow more zonal in response to lower heights in AK. We'll see because the GEFS and even GEM don't really have that feature, but that doesn't mean the euro ensemble is wrong. The ridge remains over the Aleutians so there is a chance this is a temporary feature like what we'll see this week with the cold moving down the west coast. In the meantime before hand, we may have some cold and storms which is what Ryan was referring to I think. It's funny how the GFS has everything suppressed next week..But with some semblance of a SE ridge, we know what the outcome typically is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 It's funny how the GFS has everything suppressed next week..But with some semblance of a SE ridge, we know what the outcome typically is I suppose that is always a risk, but I would be surprised if it were cold and dry the whole time. Anyways, I'm not forecasting a torch mid month, just something to watch over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I am liking thinngs going forward after our relaxation period next week. Should be a nice zone of opportunity in the 12/7-12/14 range. We'll see about beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I am liking thinngs going forward after our relaxation period next week. Should be a nice zone of opportunity in the 12/7-12/14 range. We'll see about beyond that. Canadian ens have a different take on the cutter idea, hold the energy back and suppress then bring it out. The mean never brings the 850 warmth above 0 from CT North. something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Canadian ens have a different take on the cutter idea, hold the energy back and suppress then bring it out. The mean never brings the 850 warmth above 0 from CT North. something to watch. Yes I noticed the GGEM idea...not buying it right now, but its possible I guess. It would remain all frozen probably if it morphed into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The GFS op shows you the idea of what may happen after next week in terms of storms. They won't show up necessarily this far out on the ensembles, but you know the pattern will probably bring in a couple of threats after next week towards mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Just hoping that no snowfall occurs on either the 19th or 20th. I'm flying to STL that day. Before and after it can snow its little heart out, just not on those days. Really am not looking forward to spending Chri$tma$ in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 We've been cold now for a week or more save for a few hours mid week. Cold looks like the dominant (outside of maybe a 2-3 day period this coming weekend). I would be shocked if we don't get at least a week of quite mild wx before the month ends. Overall it's hard to complain about this fledgling winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The GFS op shows you the idea of what may happen after next week in terms of storms. They won't show up necessarily this far out on the ensembles, but you know the pattern will probably bring in a couple of threats after next week towards mid month. yea that 15-20 inch snowstorm in fantasy land would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 yea that 15-20 inch snowstorm in fantasy land would be nice LOL, yeah, but I mean the op run has shown little Miller Bs and SWFE all of which are possible although SWFE seems more likely. Hopefully we can get something after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The end of that op gfs run is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The end of that op gfs run is ugly. Mid month and potentially onward has the potential to go sideways. Let's hope we can make the best of these upcoming opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The end of that op gfs run is ugly. That's what I mentioned in the other thread for mid month because the euro ensembles showed it for a few runs now. Not that the extended GFS means anything..but need to keep an eye on that after winter comes in next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The end of that op gfs run is ugly. Mid month and potentially onward has the potential to go sideways. Let's hope we can make the best of these upcoming opportunities. I agree. Let's go 2 weeks on, 2 weeks off. I expect a lock to cold by late December.... Maybe towards 1/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The end of that op gfs run is ugly. liking the low level cold look for the 144 onward period., you are aware it has flipped 180 from 06 in the LR though, warm up day 15, Ok I will take it in exchange for this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 That's what I mentioned in the other thread for mid month because the euro ensembles showed it for a few runs now. Not that the extended GFS means anything..but need to keep an eye on that after winter comes in next weekend. playing with fire (figuratively and almost literally ) if the ridging in the aleutians retros a bit and we get those lower heights in the GOA. that combined with the orientation of the PV would not be pretty for a time. we'll see if that trend continues in the next few days or if the lowering of heights is just a temporary thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 playing with fire (figuratively and almost literally ) if the ridging in the aleutians retros a bit and we get those lower heights in the GOA. that combined with the orientation of the PV would not be pretty for a time. we'll see if that trend continues in the next few days or if the lowering of heights is just a temporary thing. It might very well be temporary....but retro is a no-no...lol. Regardless, hopefully we can grab something after next weekend...should be some chances in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 nice look for Nov 29th, winter is on the rest of our doorsteps, woot woot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I agree. Let's go 2 weeks on, 2 weeks off. I expect a lock to cold by late December.... Maybe towards 1/1. The logical conclusion to the disparity in indexes from Cohen's group would be just that...a wavering pattern. I think if we can pop a few nice systems and lay down some serious snowcover that wouldn't hurt either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 The logical conclusion to the disparity in indexes from Cohen's group would be just that...a wavering pattern. I think if we can pop a few nice systems and lay down some serious snowcover that wouldn't hurt either. Look at that pic I posted, frozen rivers, snow cover etc. The Cyrosphere is driving the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Look at that pic I posted, frozen rivers, snow cover etc. The Cyrosphere is driving the bus. the cryosphere bus will go off the roads though if it's trying to navigate against a +epo / +ao combo. as long as we don't lose the dateline ridging, we are OK. if that slips...lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 the cryosphere bus will go off the roads though if it's trying to navigate against a +epo / +ao combo. as long as we don't lose the dateline ridging, we are OK. if that slips...lookout. chicken,egg? I see some huge variations in AO index in ens outputs not sold on a +AO , EPO outlooks are good too. euro LR Ens are the only ones with the transient +epo, they have been doing that consistently only to back down. As we all remember since the beginning of Nov models have tried to break down the EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 chicken,egg? I see some huge variations in AO index in ens outputs not sold on a +AO , EPO outlooks are good too. euro LR Ens are the only ones with the transient +epo, they have been doing that consistently only to back down. As we all remember since the beginning of Nov models have tried to break down the EPO. A transient +EPO is fine...we saw this mid-November for our warmup then, but it didn't last long since the EPO fell again. If it's longer term (i.e. more than a week), then we will blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 A transient +EPO is fine...we saw this mid-November for our warmup then, but it didn't last long since the EPO fell again. If it's longer term (i.e. more than a week), then we will blowtorch. If the AO remains positive we would. I think we warm up but I am of the opinion we need to watch the AO/NAO for a possible flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 A transient +EPO is fine...we saw this mid-November for our warmup then, but it didn't last long since the EPO fell again. If it's longer term (i.e. more than a week), then we will blowtorch. yeah and of course not even saying this is a lock to happen. just pointing out the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Well the GEFS still keeps the ridging near the dateline at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Well the GEFS still keeps the ridging near the dateline at the end of the run. Yup. It seems that maybe mjo is messing with the guidance? Lower confidence than typical in d11-15 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Yup. It seems that maybe mjo is messing with the guidance? Lower confidence than typical in d11-15 I think. It's going to mess them up for sure....and even the regular MJO guidance is getting screwed around with by these Kelvin waves enhancing and suppressing the MJO convection. However, a lot of guidance does edge it towards the warmer east coast phases albeit weakly. Definitely not a high confidence forecast. Nothing has been for the past month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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