ADKweather27 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 11:01 PM, Typhoon Tip said: We've been hammering this point for weeks on this subforum without anyone else's helpHM talked about this 2 months ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 11:33 PM, ADKweather27 said: HM talked about this 2 months ago Okay, but you are not making any startling revelations with that... In fact, it is common knowledge to the Meteorological community that the EPO/NP is the primary cold loading pattern for N/A ...for decades really. And, we've talked about it for years actually. We've merely enhanced discussion of it since it became the dominant teleconnector ... however long that is/was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 11:33 PM, ADKweather27 said: HM talked about this 2 months ago I saw him walk on water once.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Will said look for threats Dec 7-14. Not panic time yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Weenie me but GFS 5H looks a lot like 11/13/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 12/1/2013 at 12:31 AM, Ginxy said: Weenie me but GFS 5H looks a lot like 11/13/07You mean 12/13/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 10:08 PM, ADKweather27 said: We loose the epo we torch its pretty simple read Don S EPO+/AO+ is not a good combination. Needless to say, one should not assume that the EPO would stay predominantly positive for the remainder of the winter. Some winters following a November with an EPO of -1 or below wound up predominantly positive (e.g., 1966-67) and others remained predominantly negative (e.g., 1978-79). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 11:33 PM, ADKweather27 said: HM talked about this 2 months ago ?????????? This has been talked about in here for months as well. It's a caveat of the upcoming pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 12/1/2013 at 12:38 AM, toronto blizzard said: You mean 12/13/07 Yea lol on my phone, nice 5H look, dip that in the GOM run Forest run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 12/1/2013 at 12:54 AM, donsutherland1 said: EPO+/AO+ is not a good combination. Needless to say, one should not assume that the EPO would stay predominantly positive for the remainder of the winter. Some winters following a November with an EPO of -1 or below wound up predominantly positive (e.g., 1966-67) and others remained predominantly negative (e.g., 1978-79). Haven't the euro ensembles though had a bad track record so far this winter?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 12/1/2013 at 1:42 AM, leo1000 said: Haven't the euro ensembles though had a bad track record so far this winter?. Well, to its benefit we haven't really started winter yet. Euro ensembles are usually pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 12/1/2013 at 1:42 AM, leo1000 said: Haven't the euro ensembles though had a bad track record so far this winter?. not really, would not call them bad, missed some details but immediately corrected. lR modeling has been pretty darn good across the board. even CFS2 has been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 12/1/2013 at 1:42 AM, leo1000 said: Haven't the euro ensembles though had a bad track record so far this winter?. No they have been good overall. I think at one point they were mild in November briefly . Also, the GEFS caved a little today. I think it's best to wait until Monday, but my gut says the euro ensembles may be more right than wrong. It's not a complete torch as modeled...although it would be more hostile though for snow....especially down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 It's funny. I was looking at the Dec 2007 and 2008 reanalysis maps and aside from that big storm on 12/16/07 and a couple in Dec 08, the pattern was pretty bad for snow. Seems like a similar pattern coming up next weekend into the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 12/1/2013 at 1:47 AM, CoastalWx said: No they have been good overall. I think at one point they were mild in November briefly . Also, the GEFS caved a little today. I think it's best to wait until Monday, but my gut says the euro ensembles may be more right than wrong. It's not a complete torch as modeled...although it would be more hostile though for snow....especially down here. Just wondering what kind of impact would this pattern have in Nova Scotia Canada?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 12/1/2013 at 1:52 AM, leo1000 said: Just wondering what kind of impact would this pattern have in Nova Scotia Canada?. You may be able to get away with a lousier pattern because if your latitude, but you definitely want your native country cold. If NNE can squeeze by, you probably could too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 12/1/2013 at 1:51 AM, toronto blizzard said: It's funny. I was looking at the Dec 2007 and 2008 reanalysis maps and aside from that big storm on 12/16/07 and a couple in Dec 08, the pattern was pretty bad for snow. Seems like a similar pattern coming up next weekend into the following week. Folks think if theres no coastal or if there is fast flow it can not snow. A lot of us have been around for too many years, its snows in all kinds of setups, its winter. the LR euro is not a total disaster either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 12/1/2013 at 1:51 AM, toronto blizzard said: It's funny. I was looking at the Dec 2007 and 2008 reanalysis maps and aside from that big storm on 12/16/07 and a couple in Dec 08, the pattern was pretty bad for snow. Seems like a similar pattern coming up next weekend into the following week. Yep it's not far off from that which is why we have a chance. However you have to remember no two patterns are alike. A small change in the orientation of a ridge or trough might mean the difference of a low going south of ACK vs a low going over SNE. Just give it until Monday or so. Even if it sucks for a week or so, it does seem like it may not last. Every month has crappy periods too. December 2008 was loaded with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Oddly day 10-15 on the Euro ENS is below normal, wonder why the roast comments were posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 12/1/2013 at 1:59 AM, CoastalWx said: Yep it's not far off from that which is why we have a chance. However you have to remember no two patterns are alike. A small change in the orientation of a ridge or trough might mean the difference of a low going south of ACK vs a low going over SNE. Just give it until Monday or so. Even if it sucks for a week or so, it does seem like it may not last. Every month has crappy periods too. December 2008 was loaded with them.Ya I remember getting 14" with that 12/16/07 storm but then the pattern went zonal and mild with a cutter that followed about a week later. Then came Jan 2008 which sucked and Feb 2008 which rocked. It's all about timing a storm with the cold around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Looking at the euro ensembles to me still have the PV over Hudson bay do at least it's on our side of the globe. Also it looks like more of a trough over B.C rather than the GOA. It looks like it would be a transient feature as Scott alluded too. We"ll see I guess. The EPO looks like its reloading by D15 so perhaps by x-mas the pattern gets better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Seems like a slow start is a theme so far for this decade (save 10/29/11 and 11/7/12) as opposed to the 2000's where we enjoyed snowy Decembers. It's a bit premature to say this will be a slow start I suppose but I for one would like to see improvement on the Atlantic side. Rolling the dice with overrunning down here usually doesn't work out all that great. MJO looks like it's going to wake up a little per the GFS ENS. Too bad it's progged to be in phases 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Stop panicking people! No winter is devoid of some warmth. It's the final hours of November for goodness sakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 12/1/2013 at 3:16 AM, weathafella said: Stop panicking people! No winter is devoid of some warmth. It's the final hours of November for goodness sakes. lol just remember the Nov 1st panics. Happy birthday young man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I don't think anyone is panicking, but it's likely the first week of this month isn't going to go quite as well as we hoped it would a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 12/1/2013 at 3:27 AM, H2Otown_WX said: I don't think anyone is panicking, but it's likely the first week of this month isn't going to go quite as well as we hoped it would a week ago. I know the first week better than most...and it's usually not quite ready for prime time. Mets are targeting 12/7-14 and that seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 12/1/2013 at 3:18 AM, Ginxy said: Stop panicking people! No winter is devoid of some warmth. It's the final hours of November for goodness sakes. lol just remember the Nov 1st panics. Happy birthday young man Lol...thank you brother! Don't want to jinx it until I wake up tomorrow....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 12/1/2013 at 3:32 AM, weathafella said: Lol...thank you brother! Don't want to jinx it until I wake up tomorrow....lol. Stay up until 1201, you made it. Maybe some flakes by then too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I don't think anything changed. As we started to go out in time since Wednesday or so, the GOA feature showed up. It's not like things just trended warmer. The weeklies even showed a SE ridge expanding north albeit weak. The 7-14 is the hopeful period. It's not a lock, but offers the best chance. Nothing is ever a lock in meteorology. I really wouldn't panic about winter or even this month. Not yet anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 10:46 PM, CoastalWx said: I also think weenies are thinking winter cancel. No, it just means it possibly might be tough mid month. I'd relax a bit. December 2008 wasnt a great pattern except for about 4 days in which we got almost 30" of snow. Sounds like it's standing room only on the Tobin. We have to remember that the first snowfall over 1" across the region typically doesn't happen until that 7th (BDL) to 14th (BOS/PVD) time frame. I mean maybe Will has a case to gripe in ORH because their long term average first date for 1"+ snowfall is 11/27 (and even they had that 0.5" earlier this month). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.