CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Nice 40F rain event on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 3:55 PM, CoastalWx said: I think all guidance did fairly well iirc. Anyways, lets hope we can squeeze in some events after next weekend. The pattern certainly supports it.looking back on November 11th the Euro LR ens were meh with the ridge while GEFS was balls to the walls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 3:56 PM, CoastalWx said: Nice 40F rain event on the GFS. Wrong thread, the librarian would like us to keep this more organized. More threads than the dewey decimal system has books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 4:06 PM, Ginxy said: looking back on November 11th the Euro LR ens were meh with the ridge while GEFS was balls to the walls. I just looked at the 13/00z run and the euro ensembles were actually cooler. It doesn't matter really...point being is on 11/1 all guidance was too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Pretty sure last time I saw this was 89, ice fishing in the CT river Hamburg cove CT 4 inches of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 terrible terrible atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 4:10 PM, forkyfork said: terrible terrible atlantic 100%. Hopefully we get a reprieve at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 To be fair, the Atlantic has blown all through November. This pattern needs the pacific or we're toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Or you could do what the GFS op does and just retro the lower heights under the pig ridge that pops near the dateline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 4:47 PM, weathafella said: To be fair, the Atlantic has blown all through November. This pattern needs the pacific or we're toast. 4 sure. I could be wrong but does the Atlantic not at least temporarily improve around the Dec 10th timeframe period with heights in the Azores not terribly different from heights up in Iceland? I know the gfs 500 maps showed that a couple of days ago but i havent checked since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 4:47 PM, weathafella said: To be fair, the Atlantic has blown all through November. This pattern needs the pacific or we're toast. yep. one thing though that has appeared on some guidance is a hint...albeit rather weak...of some ridging bumping into eastern greenland, and basically pinning the PV far enough south to keep the cold close enough by to avoid prolonged roasting. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 4:52 PM, CoastalWx said: Or you could do what the GFS op does and just retro the lower heights under the pig ridge that pops near the dateline. Would you consider that a big epo reload? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 4:57 PM, weathafella said: Would you consider that a big epo reload? It's a little west of a true -EPO, but the op is a sure reload of that ridge. The GFS op at the time range is basically a version of the Damage in Tolland model combined with the TorontoBlizzard ensemble anyways. I just pointed it out because it was interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 As has been discussed adnauseum , the Pacific trumps the Atlantic. Atlantic can be overrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 5:03 PM, CoastalWx said: Would you consider that a big epo reload? It's a little west of a true -EPO, but the op is a sure reload of that ridge. The GFS op at the time range is basically a version of the Damage in Tolland model combined with the TorontoBlizzard ensemble anyways. I just pointed it out because it was interesting to see. Just like the one eyed monster from 2 years ago, that ridge doesn't want to leave. Could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 5:14 PM, weathafella said: Just like the one eyed monster from 2 years ago, that ridge doesn't want to leave. Could be fun. We'll see what the ensembles and the euro guidance says shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 gfs ens mean is really cold for 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 GEFS likes the idea of continued pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 5:53 PM, weathafella said: GEFS likes the idea of continued pacific. Clarification? East vs west battle going on. Euro v Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 GEFS did lower heights a bit, but the result wasn't much if any change. The day 10 period that Phil mentioned was cold. A piece of the ridge in AK broke SE and helped push the cold SE a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 6:06 PM, CoastalWx said: GEFS did lower heights a bit, but the result wasn't much if any change. The day 10 period that Phil mentioned was cold. A piece of the ridge in AK broke SE and helped push the cold SE a bit. Have to admit that is one robust ridge out in the Pacific. I'm just worried if it retrogrades more, we will torch. It's a fact there is no cooperation from the Atlantic although yesterday's Euro ensembles hinted at that. Let's hope that continues today. Second week of DEC the entire US is cold...I must say I'm impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 5:14 PM, weathafella said: Just like the one eyed monster from 2 years ago, that ridge doesn't want to leave. Could be fun. Agree. That ridge has been so persistent and we could thank a warm GOA for that. If we can get a -NAO to team up with that ridge, all hell would break loose. It's still early yet but this is a totally different pattern than what we have seen in the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 6:13 PM, Neblizzard said: It's still early yet but this is a totally different pattern than what we have seen in the last several years. If we had a sustained period of blocking for large parts of jan/feb i think most LR forecasters would jump into nearest hole. I must say i am sold on the +AO. The work of not only Cohen but particularly Riccardo has me thinking its pacific or bust most of year. Until that work i didnt have min faith in LR teleconnector forecasting. Being said, obv we must have some times of transient blocking as well as (at least "some times" of +EPO) if the EPO performs as well as the AO is suppose to be "bad", then i would say most likely colder than normal w prob near normal snowfall being most likely. (Thou w stellar timing and march blocking we could see more above normal chances increase). And obviously vice versa wrt to chance of pacific going to crap. My best call right now for Boston seasonal snowfall would be 30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 euro is pretty warm second half of the week - at least relative to where we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 6:25 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: euro is pretty warm second half of the week - at least relative to where we are. Boring and mild FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Close the shades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 torch incoming on the euro next week. windows down...sleeves up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 6:32 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: torch incoming on the euro next week. windows down...sleeves up. That is a furnace. Maybe my grass will green up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 6:33 PM, CoastalWx said: torch incoming on the euro next week. windows down...sleeves up. That is a furnace. Maybe my grass will green up. One more mowing for the avatar picture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 On 11/30/2013 at 6:36 PM, weathafella said: One more mowing for the avatar picture? Definitely has the potential to be mild. Looks like Saturday it cools off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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