CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The euro op is warm...almost a Nino like coastal..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 So should we expect the trend of the cold loading up in the pnw to continue. Its been two days now. Last week the or looked good and now the ridge looks to far to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 8:14 PM, Lindsaywx said: So should we expect the trend of the cold loading up in the pnw to continue. Its been two days now. Last week the or looked good and now the ridge looks to far to the west The cold in the PNW was and is a risk in this pattern. It should do so with pieces of it breaking off east. We had many instances of this same pattern that produced later in the month as the storm track came very close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Sweet Jesus that is cold in Canada. We haven't seen that cold in December in years it seems. Like '07 or '08. I know it's a +AO...but call me crazy...I like seeing it cold there. I know...I know...1980s...but just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 8:30 PM, CoastalWx said: Sweet Jesus that is cold in Canada. We haven't seen that cold in December in years it seems. Like '07 or '08. I know it's a +AO...but call me crazy...I like seeing it cold there. I know...I know...1980s...but just saying. 1980s was +PDO suppression...so I'm not worried about that type of heartbreak. Note the trend of colder on the ensmebles for the 12/3-4 system...that one still could have a shot. Could be a cutter too, but it should be watched. If today's 12z Euro ensembles verified, we'd have a plethora of chances through middle December. That is some big time cold as you said. They'll be several 'bouts of arctic air breaking off and sliding east I'm sure. The mild SE ridge look should keep it active with the -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 8:45 PM, ORH_wxman said: 1980s was +PDO suppression...so I'm not worried about that type of heartbreak. Note the trend of colder on the ensmebles for the 12/3-4 system...that one still could have a shot. Could be a cutter too, but it should be watched. If today's 12z Euro ensembles verified, we'd have a plethora of chances through middle December. That is some big time cold as you said. They'll be several 'bouts of arctic air breaking off and sliding east I'm sure. The mild SE ridge look should keep it active with the -PNA. Good point about the PDO. I just love having the source region close by so cold because it works in our favor more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 8:59 PM, CoastalWx said: Good point about the PDO. I just love having the source region close by so cold because it works in our favor more often than not. ensembles kind of have a cross polar connection there toward the end with the PV shifting across and settling in to canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 9:03 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: ensembles kind of have a cross polar connection there toward the end with the PV shifting across and settling in to canada The thicknesses can be deceiving too. Those SWFE in 2007 and 2008 had 534 thicknesses and rising, yet temps in the teens inland under shallow arctic domes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 9:06 PM, CoastalWx said: The thicknesses can be deceiving too. Those SWFE in 2007 and 2008 had 534 thicknesses and rising, yet temps in the teens inland under shallow arctic domes.fetishes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The Dec 3-4 storm on some models looks purely EL Nino generated sub tropical jet stream present. The OE event on Dec 1 forecasted by some models as an OE enhanced coastal front, turning into a warm front. Looks too warm for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 On 11/25/2013 at 10:52 PM, jamesnichols1989 said: The Dec 3-4 storm on some models looks purely EL Nino generated sub tropical jet stream present. The OE event on Dec 1 forecasted by some models as an OE enhanced coastal front, turning into a warm front. Looks too warm for the coastal plain. When are you going to buffalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Just found this thread, I see you guys are way ahead of me with interest for a potential system around the 2nd/3rd of December. Euro ens/CMC ens do have an almost Miller B look to them. Unfortunately from what I can see temperatures look marginal. But we can work on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Pretty entertaining 18z GFS run... Has heavy rain to wet snow vibe on that Dec 2-3, then a major ice storm in the lala range. Epic cold in the NP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 If we could get the west ridge farther east, the la-la land end of the 18z GFS run pattern reminds me of Jan 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 This November has behaved like old school Novembers from my childhood. Fun times ahead friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 First post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 On 11/26/2013 at 1:29 AM, Randy4Confluence said: First post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 cool thx! A response from one of my favorites! ive really enjoyed your posts and technical knowledge over the years,as well as passion for the white gold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Yes randy send some confluence for next cpl weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Any word on the weeklies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 On 11/26/2013 at 2:20 AM, Snowlover123 said: Any word on the weeklies? JB says they 'show the cold pressing so the plains, midwest, and NE stay below normal through the 22nd'....... 'the southeast does try to warm' and he thinks the warming in texas looks suspect week 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 On 11/26/2013 at 1:29 AM, Randy4Confluence said: First post I've been reading many of you for years as a guest, and have enjoyed,and wept,and suffered and celebrated with you in silence, so i figured its time to join. Anyhoo, i guess our next legit chance at something fun is next Sunday but again no blocking to keep the cold in here at least accoqrding toq the gfs. Man i howpe we dont waste this cold that we've worked so hard to get down here. We need to try harder and pull together to make this happen!Welcome aboard. Great to see you break your silence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 On 11/26/2013 at 1:29 AM, Randy4Confluence said: First post I've been reading many of you for years as a guest, and have enjoyed,and wept,and suffered and celebrated with you in silence, so i figured its time to join. Anyhoo, i guess our next legit chance at something fun is next Sunday but again no blocking to keep the cold in here at least accoqrding toq the gfs. Man i howpe we dont waste this cold that we've worked so hard to get down here. We need to try harder and pull together to make this happen! Welcome to the club. Your reports will be appreciated (obs. threads) being up near the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 On 11/26/2013 at 1:29 AM, Randy4Confluence said: First post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Weeklies say gradient pattern here we come. For now we are just cool enough..like -1 to -2 avg for week 3 and 4. Strong dateline ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Maybe we can get some sort of cstl next week, although airmass might be a bit marginal esp aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 On 11/26/2013 at 4:01 AM, CoastalWx said: Weeklies say gradient pattern here we come. For now we are just cool enough..like -1 to -2 avg for week 3 and 4. Strong dateline ridging.PV splits, should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 On 11/26/2013 at 4:08 AM, Ginxy said: PV splits, should be fun Hope it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 On 11/26/2013 at 4:01 AM, CoastalWx said: Weeklies say gradient pattern here we come. For now we are just cool enough..like -1 to -2 avg for week 3 and 4. Strong dateline ridging. The map reminded me of this composite: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 On 11/26/2013 at 4:10 AM, CoastalWx said: Hope it verifies.As long as Canada keeps getting restocked like it shows and the cold stays on this side it's going to be a fun run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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