Lookout Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12z Euro: sfc low further north than gfs and 0z Euro. Very little wintry with that setup. Let's see if upper low keeps less impressive trend of 0z Euro. Yep, all rain for everyone it would seem. Only chances of ice would be in the nc foothills probably but even there it wouldn't be much. It is slower, warmer, further north with the surface low, and instead of an upper low it has a sharp upper trough. Looks a lot like the 12z canadian to be honest. How can they be so different? GFS won the last battle a few weeks ago when it said no and the Euro caved to it. Now the GFS is honking. Hope the Euro caves to it again. they are quite different for so little time into the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Yep, all rain for everyone it would seem. Only chances of ice would be in the nc foothills probably but even there it wouldn't be much. It is slower, warmer, further north with the surface low, and instead of an upper low it has a sharp upper trough. Looks a lot like the 12z canadian to be honest. they are quite different for so little time into the future. @114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Light snow for NC mainly a cold chasing rain scenario on the euro Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Thanks. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looks like ice to rain to snow in the NC foothills on the euro, a lot like the canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Light snow for NC mainly a cold chasing rain scenario on the euro Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Thanks. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Odd looking snow map right there. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Euro looks like the NAM at 84hrs if you were to extrapolate, phaser, sub 540m heights coming down into N TN, southern stream is engulfed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 @114 Those snow maps from that source are highly questionable to say the least...if not completely inaccurate. It showed a ton of snow for north ga on the last run i think even though it was clearly way too warm. that said, there would be some light snow for alabama and tn. ga and the carolinas wouldn't get anything, save maybe the highest elevations as the low moves away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Yep, all rain for everyone it would seem. Only chances of ice would be in the nc foothills probably but even there it wouldn't be much. It is slower, warmer, further north with the surface low, and instead of an upper low it has a sharp upper trough. Looks a lot like the 12z canadian to be honest. they are quite different for so little time into the future. Yeah its mind-boggling at the difference in the 500 from GFS,Euro,CMC considering the effects of the storm should begin in the next 3.5 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 @114 This map is from backside/upper trough and not ahead of the low to which lookout and I were referring. This looks somewhat overdone vs my output anyway. But this is somewhat similar to my clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Euro looks like the NAM at 84hrs if you were to extrapolate, phaser, sub 540m heights coming down into N TN, southern stream is engulfed. Well that lends more credence to the GFS than :-). It seems like you have the super phased CMC/Euro, late phases UK/NAVGEM and no phaser GFS. It's crazy considering we are talking around 84 hour forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandonjva Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I sense a gfs bashing coming on..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I sense a gfs bashing coming on..... Nah. I'm sure it is money well spent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I sense a gfs bashing coming on..... You must have wxrisk pulled up on the other tab! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 WxSouth showing on facebook that the difference between the GFS and Euro is really slight, but that difference is huge in the result that the two are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I sense a gfs bashing coming on..... Not sure why when the last time the Euro showed a big storm at first and the GFS didn't, and the GFS ended up being right. The Euro ended up caving to the GFS then. Now we will have to see if the two stay different up to the end, or if one starts caving to the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Not sure why when the last time the Euro showed a big storm at first and the GFS didn't, and the GFS ended up being right. The Euro ended up caving to the GFS then. Now we will have to see if the two stay different up to the end, or if one starts caving to the other. Because people get ticked when they have their snow storm ripped out from under them. In any case, a EURO/NAM combination is usually hard to beat, but not impossible. I will reserve judgment until after tonight's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Well, if the Euro is right this time, and the GFS was right last time, it seems the best thing to do is just go with the model that shows no or less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 It used to happen with much more regularity. Below zero was rare, but a single digit night or two in a winter was a pretty normal occurrence. I'm just guessing, and I figure Larry will put me in my place, but I'd say one or two in ten years we'd see single digits, maybe more. Saw a lot in the 60's. Recently not so much, but even in the 80's and 90's it wasn't so rare. 0 or below, much more rarefied air in my parts of Ga. Over the fields, and thru the woods, on mammoth back we'd go. Everyone laughed, and smiled and sang, as the stars shone upon the snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 There's something wrong with the Wx Bell clown maps that have recently been posted. They way overdid snow accum.'s on the 0Z Euro. As lookout said, the 0Z Euro's map had major snow in N GA ahead of the sfc low when 850's were well above 0C. Even that 12Z Euro map looks overdone but not nearly as badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Larry, I feared there was too much time ahead for the runner to raise it's ugly head...so what's this do for rain totals now with the doc? I was never going to see anything frozen here in Nov anyway except maybe some spits of sleet. The rains the thing with me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Not sure why when the last time the Euro showed a big storm at first and the GFS didn't, and the GFS ended up being right. The Euro ended up caving to the GFS then. Now we will have to see if the two stay different up to the end, or if one starts caving to the other. The Euro ensembles however were largely in favor of the GFS last time and I think even the Canadian was out to sea as well, I think the Euro is probably a bit too ampified happy but I think its got a better chance of being right than the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 . Climo is just averages. Anything can happen, and it's not like its 15 days out! Could be legit!This is what I was saying a few days ago. It doesn't matter what time of the year it is, if the setup allows it, then it can happen. How often do you see a winter storm warning for Dallas in November? It hit 16 degrees here back in October of 1954.The difference between this November and last November was that last year, it stayed cool nearly the entire month. This year the outbreaks of cold have been more intense, but then you get warm ups that follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 This is what I was saying a few days ago. It doesn't matter what time of the year it is, if the setup allows it, then it can happen. How often do you see a winter storm warning for Dallas in November? It hit 16 degrees here back in October of 1954. The difference between this November and last November was that last year, it stayed cool nearly the entire month. This year the outbreaks of cold have been more intense, but then you get warm ups that follow. Yeah, but averages is averages, lol. You can what if with climo, but it's the same averages as when you've got one round in 6 chambers for Russian Roulette Not a good gamble.... It's why CR is the king! He spun and won, against all odds....I mean like never happened odds down here. Sure it happens, but once in never isn't exactly scintillating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looking at the GFS Ensemble Members on the AmWx model page, 9 of the 11 members show the less phased and south solution, while 2 show the phased and north solution...this suggests that the GFS operational run is not out to lunch, but we'll see how this unfolds going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 We had a couple of inches of snow on thanksgiving weekend and close to 8 inches of snow total before christmas in 2000 in the upstate of sc. Strange things can happen every now and then even down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Hazardous weather outlook for the following: Forsyth/Guilford... ...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM...A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD AND WESTERN PIEDMONT IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. Surry/Wilkes... LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR WINTRY WEATHER...WITH FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ALL POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS WHILE TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING...SO STAY TUNED. Catawba/Iredell... ..TUESDAY...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COULD BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 So when are we going to see the GFS or Euro cave to the other? They can't keep being totally different all the way up to Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 So when are we going to see the GFS or Euro cave to the other? They can't keep being totally different all the way up to Thanksgiving. Don't worry. You'll see the GFS fall in line within the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Don't worry. You'll see the GFS fall in line within the next 24 hours. I think you meant the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 MRX has went with ZR/sleet as their frozen precip type of choice and is actually predicting all rain in the highest elevations of the Smokies. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILLBE A GOOD POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. DO NOT BE SURPRISEDTO SEE HIGHER ELEVATIONS RECEIVE RAIN...RATHER THAN WINTRY WEATHERBECAUSE OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT. As for the clown maps, I've noticed some show all frozen precip as snow accumulation. Not sure if that's what the WB map is doing or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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