griteater Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Classic early season Miller A gulf low...rain or mix to snow in NC Mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Wouldn't be surprised if the clown maps give RDU between 4-8 inches of snow on this run. IF and that's a big IF the GFS plays out this way it's all going to depend on where exactly that low goes. Big winners and big losers on runs like this. Roughly most of central NC looks to start as some sort of icy mess then moves to 1-3 inches of snow. Again though don't bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 seems like the gfs keeps toying with the idea of the 2nd low being the big player more and more as we get closer. you have to wonder if it is still having trouble as it is showing 2 lows and we wont get a good feel for the solution until <72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Pretty close to snow at GSO between 117 and 120 hrs based on thickness, 3/10 to 4/10 liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 really a nice looking 500 map for a southern app and NC dump. classic track in the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Wouldn't be surprised if the clown maps give RDU between 4-8 inches of snow on this run. IF and that's a big IF the GFS plays out this way it's all going to depend on where exactly that low goes. Big winners and big losers on runs like this. Roughly most of central NC looks to start as some sort of icy mess then moves to 1-3 inches of snow. Again though don't bank on it. One thing I noticed is the 1 contour stays closed throughout until it's off the coast, maybe this is a trend to a 2 contour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Congrats NC and eastern TN. SV maps are much more conservative for my neck of the woods (from about Shelby to Concord to CLT we get nothing) and Eastern TN (also nothing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 really a nice looking 500 map for a southern app and NC dump. classic track in the southern stream. Ya it does look nice on this run. The mountains would get in on some great snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Pretty close to snow at GSO between 117 and 120 hrs based on thickness, 3/10 to 4/10 liquid equivalent. Looking at that low (I know given climo cold is tough) do you think the models are underdoing the cooling going on? It seems to never work in anyone's favor when you have to depend on dynamic cooling but I was surprised that 540 line didn't move much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Interesting run of the GFS, with snow possible across eastern Tennessee and North Carolina. Not sure if I buy this trend yet; however, we need to continue to watch this. NAM is in a totally different camp, EURO is closer to GFS but there is still disagreement between the GFS and EURO. We will need to see if the trend continues over the next few runs. We still have 4-6 days to go, and there will be a lot of changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Wouldn't be surprised if the clown maps give RDU between 4-8 inches of snow on this run. IF and that's a big IF the GFS plays out this way it's all going to depend on where exactly that low goes. Big winners and big losers on runs like this. Roughly most of central NC looks to start as some sort of icy mess then moves to 1-3 inches of snow. Again though don't bank on it. Lots of purple on the clown map, Danville's closing in on a foot, but keep in mind the stock 10:1 ratio, this would be half that given the thermal profiles. Way too early for that conv though, great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looks like this comes down to how far south does the northern stream piece track. GFS seems to be a bit on an island with less stream interaction. UKMet, CMC, and Euro have more interaction and don't track the southern system as far to the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler B Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Can someone post the 12z GFS snowfall forecast map? Curious as to what links y'all may use because I can't seem to find one! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Still a long way off, but this could be they typical south and east bias at play here. My experience tells me that "almost" every storm that comes in from the southwest US without Atlantic blocking will gain more latitude than the models depict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looks like this comes down to how far south does the northern stream piece track. GFS seems to be a bit on an island with less stream interaction. UKMet, CMC, and Euro have more interaction and don't track the southern system as far to the south and east. I was noticing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Still a long way off, but this could be they typical south and east bias at play here. My experience tells me that "almost" every storm that comes in from the southwest US without Atlantic blocking will gain more latitude than the models depict. Good point, we need something to help suppress this storm. Someone correct me if I'm wrong but in this case the northern branch is doing just that. It pulls away just in time to help the low lift which gives the good dump to the mountains. if it sticks around it should help that low move due east which would be good for MBY (of course I'll be in Florida so it'll happen). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Yes Burger, the Northern Stream will suppress this depending on how strong the northern branch is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 definitely cold at the sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looking at that low (I know given climo cold is tough) do you think the models are underdoing the cooling going on? It seems to never work in anyone's favor when you have to depend on dynamic cooling but I was surprised that 540 line didn't move much. The cold looks marginal imo, and we know how that usually turns out. The little to no interaction scenario, similar to the GFS, would probably be our best chance of seeing measurable snow outside of the mountains. The cold source is the 1035 hp building just north of the lakes, far from ideal, but maybe enough to flip places over depending on a sufficiently strong enough coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The Charlotte region looks like it would be a lot of IP or ZR this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The cold looks marginal imo, and we know how that usually turns out. The little to no interaction scenario, similar to the GFS, would probably be our best chance of seeing measurable snow outside of the mountains. The cold source is the 1035 hp building just north of the lakes, far from ideal, but maybe enough to flip places over depending on a sufficiently strong enough coastal. Agree, more stream interaction, and this pulls north, and is warmer. Less stream interaction and you get the stronger, slower southern wave with the good deformation band that QueenCity just posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Agree, more stream interaction, and this pulls north, and is warmer. Less stream interaction and you get the stronger, slower southern wave with the good deformation band that QueenCity just posted That's as pretty of a comma head as you're ever going to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12z Canadian stays the course with early precip arrival and icing in the traditional cold air damming regions - has ice breaking out in NC Foothills at 03z (10pm Mon night). Just looking at surface maps, it appears like it also stays the course with a track that is north of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 That's as pretty of a comma head as you're ever going to see. Agree and if that were to happen tomorrow I'd certainly bet snow from NE Ga to coastal plain of NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Massive difference here between the handling of the northern stream. GFS on the left (little stream interaction and suppressed flow over the southeast), Canadian on the right (northern stream diving south with heights rising on the east coast, system pulling north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I don't like the more ragged look, and Goofy gives me less than 2 this time, but the low holds back and that means the rain falls from Monday night thru Thur. morning, and soaks...so yer takes the good with the bad And the td's are low enough for some onset pellets, so I'll take it..but would like much better, lol. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12z GFS. What a wonderful run. That's two GFS runs in a row (6z and 12z) with some wintry weather for some of us, so maybe there's actually something to it with the flippy-floppy GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kgso.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_kgso.txt Geez, a major ice storm, sleetstorm, and snowstorm. Then the GFS gets GSO down to 4 degrees at hr 180. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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