Tacoma Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 From NWS in GSP. WILL ANTICIPATE A VERY DRY SFC LAYER IN PLACE MON NIGHT WITH TD/S INTHE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY ACROSS THE FAVORED CAD REGION...MODIFYING TOAROUND 20 F BY 12Z. THIS IS ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ANDIN/LINE MORESO WITH THE ECMWF/CMC MASS FIELDS. THUS...THERE IS THEPOTENTIAL FOR AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. IN ANYCASE...GOOD GOM MOISTURE FLUX WILL COMBINE WITH AN ATL FETCHOVERNIGHT AND SATURATE THE CAD BOUNDARY IN ISENT ASCENT WHILEBRINGING IN A DECENT WARM NOSE. A LOOK AT SFC TW/S AND THERMALPROFILES INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR -FZRA ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGEAND NC FTHILLS...WHILE THE NC MTNS SHOULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIXOF IP/SN THROUGH 12Z. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW END THROUGH DAYBREAK BUTIF THE CAD STRENGTHENS AND MAINTAINS LOW TD/S...THEN THERE COULDBE SOME MODEST ICE ACCUMS AS THE PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASE AFT 12Z.TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT TYPE OF LLVL THERMAL TRANSITION IS FAVOREDJUST YET...HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A WX SITUATION TO KEEP AN EYE ONFOR EARLY MORNING TRAVELING/ACTIVITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 6z looked good for snow from CLT east Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Here is the 6z snowfall map Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Got to love the dry slot over the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Got to love the dry slot over the piedmont. welcome to my world, little taste of what the foothills always has to worry about!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 00z Canadian is rather wintry. Continues to bang the early precip arrival with substantial icing...with a tick of snow on the back end. I've got to give it to the Canadian.... between canadian, euro, gfs it has generally been rather unchanged and presistent with the icestorm setup. I really really hope not though. Here is the 6z snowfall map Sent from my HTC One Well atleast still has the snow with the ULL. Other than that between the euro,gfs would expect more wacky runs todays. Edit. Well the positive side even though the operational gfs pretty much takes it ots for a later phase. The ensemble members show support for a further west phase stronger ULL scenario. 6Z 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Doesn't sound good when its this quiet on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Maybe I missed it but no one posted the DGEX? What kind of weenies are we turning into? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Maybe I missed it but no one posted the DGEX? What kind of weenies are we turning into? Yeah I thought about posting that. Really robust at the 500mb level looks good like the gfs emsemble members. Good northern and southern stream interaction starts phasing the two branches back towards western TN,AR, MO region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 HPC map gives bullseye 50% chance of ice accums of 1/10 or greater right over upstate SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The DGEX is not even good enough to deserve to be called a model since it is so bad lol. It is an extreme fantasy 99% of the time and still somewhat of a fantasy most of the other 1%. But as long as people know it is for entertainment and almost never is right with these extreme solutions, all is well. I know burger knows that. Edit: I'm actually amazed at how consistently the dgex has extremely unrealistic snowy runs. How cone it always does this? Is it too cold and too stormy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 HPC map gives bullseye 50% chance of ice accums of 1/10 or greater right over upstate SCI definitely think you guys out west have the best chance of seeing some initial wintery ptypes. This is a very cold/dry air mass. You also have the advantage of the precip coming in before sunrise; and the in-situ CAD will lock in longer at your location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The DGEX is not even good enough to deserve to be called a model since it is so bad lol. It is an extreme fantasy 99% of the time and still somewhat of a fantasy most of the other 1%. But as long as people know it is for entertainment and almost never is right with these extreme solutions, all is well. I know burger knows that. We need to throw 1$ into a paypal account every time the DGEX shows a monster snow storm that doesn't happen for the south over winter. Then invest it into the stock market. We'll be rich after two seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 On a serious note looking at the 12z NAM it's out to 63 and if I had to extrapolate (always a bad idea) I would guess there will be some northern stream interaction. Like Chris pointed out earlier though we're kind of in a no win with this one. It phases it will more than likely just pull that low north and most in the south get the cold too late. It doesn't phase there may not be enough cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12z NAM is looking somewhat Canadianish at 5h @84...but probably best not to torment yourself with banking on that. NAM @84 still looks to have too much of a positive tilt to me. Maybe if it links up it can go negative. Should be interesting to see what the GFS does at 12z as it looks night and day to the NAM at 5h even before 60 with timing. Canadian NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 On a serious note looking at the 12z NAM it's out to 63 and if I had to extrapolate (always a bad idea) I would guess there will be some northern stream interaction. Like Chris pointed out earlier though we're kind of in a no win with this one. It phases it will more than likely just pull that low north and most in the south get the cold too late. It doesn't phase there may not be enough cold air to work with. Really it does. Opens up the closed low while the SW tries to dive south into the low. It could be bad if it phases to early.. further west and north with the backend precip. Its going to be a perfect timing deal. If phases early then north it shall go... if it phases too late then ots it goes along with any decent snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 NAM looks a lot different. More Miller B-ish and warmer. 500 mb low farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 NAM looks a lot different. More Miller B-ish and warmer. 500 mb low farther north Yep. I'm interested to see what that energy behind it does...if it's even there on the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Here's the icing potential for early Tuesday morning from the WPC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 This NAM run sure is different from the previous runs; it's also more squally, which I'm not a fan of... It has the 500 mb low heading from Oklahoma/Kansas instead of south, or central, Texas which causes more interaction of the two streams... It'll be interesting to see what the 12Z GFS has. If it starts shifting north like the NAM did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 When did we start looking at the NAM again? I mean, we're not *really* going to extrapolate from the 84-hour NAM, are we? Come on, guys. This event is still 4-5 days out. I'm not going to care too much about what the models say until Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 When did we start looking at the NAM again? I mean, we're not *really* going to extrapolate from the 84-hour NAM, are we? Come on, guys. This event is still 4-5 days out. I'm not going to care too much about what the models say until Monday night. Hey it's Saturday morning we're bored The GFS is out to 54 and some big differences between at 5h with it and NAM. It's a few hours slower and looks further SW with the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 12z GFS could get interesting. Energy appears to be slower and further SW compared to this mornings run. Northern energy is screaming ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 interesting thru 75, low is slower and much more precip is being thrown back near tx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Big hit of snow icy mess @105 around the central VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 wow thru 99 2nd low is much slower! back over the fl panhandle with snow in western ms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 This should end pretty good for NC mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 This should end pretty good for NC mtns Right thickness is a mess...but probably GFS under doing dynamic cooling. Piedmont might get in on the action on the NW side of that low once it's passing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 @120 RDU getting a good snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 just a load of precip this run with the 2nd low as is really ramped up. @117hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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