DopplerWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 more precip with the secondary low at 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Seems that the GFS is on an island all by itself in regards to what all the other models; NAM, EURO, CMC are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 the ULL looks like there is a bit more energy with it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 the ULL looks like there is a bit more energy with it as well. Indeed. That's where the frozen precip, if any, if going to come from. Not the leading sfc low running ahead with the big rainout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 HR 108 the ULL really starts to turn a bit and vorticity increase...Temps crashing *at 2M* over bama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Indeed. That's where the frozen precip, if any, if going to come from. Not the leading sfc low running ahead with the big rainout. Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 out to 96 and this thing looks to be hauling the mail out to sea. Cold air lacking too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 much colder at 102 back in bama temps really crashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looks to warm for anything other than rain, I am afraid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 much colder at 102 back in bama temps really crashing. Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 big changes, much more precip as the secondary low wraps up and is slower...compare... 18z: 00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Northern stream hits it, but late, secondary on the backside, 850's dipping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 and as temps crash heavy precip leads to snow in upper sc/mid nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 If the second sfc low can be the only low and shake the dbl barrel, that'll help draw in the cold air east of the apps. That would be a big trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Overall storm track is too quick on this run for very much shenanigans. We need things to slow down and allow the cold air to catch up. Stop me if you've heard this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 and wow, temps REALLY crash after the precip moves through, widepsread mid to low 20s throughout nc/sc/ga thanksgiving morning with highs barely reaching 40! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 much colder at 102 back in bama temps really crashing. that would be the cold air chasing the rain. and those of us in the se know all too well how that usually works out and who the big winner will be, and its not the cold air lol pretty much foregone conclusion that anything frozen turns over to rain pretty quickly. i am holding out just to see a little of a cad and frozen precip as it starts, is that asking too much lol even if we can get a little zr out of this it might restore my confidence that CADs are not a thing of the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 If the second sfc low can be the only low and shake the dbl barrel, that'll help draw in the cold air east of the apps. That would be a big trend. It's hard enough for the GFS to track one low now it wants two of them? Maybe 5 days will buy us one trend. I don't want to get beat by Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I don't think it is. I think it's just the models having a hard time seeing the evaporational cooling aspect mostly. Besides the idea you have to have a continuous feed of cold air isn't accurate anyway for the damming regions some of the time. All you need is cold/dry enough airmass ahead of a system, sufficient precip to get to your wetbulb, a sufficient depth of cold air in the boundary layer, mid level/850mb temps that aren't too warm, and a general easterly flow in the low levels. We've had plenty of ice events where the high has moved out and no longer in a good place or "feeding the cold air" in. If we were only seeing the surface this cold and dry, i'd believe it but it's pretty cold at 950mb through 12z tue with a general easterly flow there and E to NE flow at the surface. So I'm having a hard time believing we start with temps 35 to 37 and dewpoints betweeb 0 and 10 and end up only seeing temps of 32 to 34 the gfs is progging monday night. After 12z, temps should rise quick as temps right off the surface..900 to 950mb rise very quickly. (not to mention 850mb temps). Don't think it will be a huge deal as I said before but I find the temperature response by the models to be fascinating. Lookout, I agree that the high center doesn't need to stay in a good place. Also, I do think there could still be some ZR with this. However, in trying to figure out why the gfs doesn't cool it off any more than it does, I'm looking at the 925 temps and notice that they are already warmer than the 850's when the precip. really gets going. Don't the 925's need to be colder than the 850's to indicate any low level wedging of note and the chance for there to be a stubborn cold air hanging on near the ground for a good period of time without a decent high position? Opinion? Aside: The neutral ENSO is more favorable than average for a major ZR this winter. Actually, if one looks at ENSO for the major KATL ZR's since the late 1800's, ~80% of them were when ENSO was either neutral or weak even though they only make up ~2/3 of all winters. Also, there appears to be a slightly enhanced chance with a -PDO vs. a +PDO. Edit with a climo tidbit:Nearly 100% of all major S/IP at KATL were from Miller A's. Only about 25% of major ZR's at KATL were due to Miller A's. Still, a Miller A should not be dismissed as a potential major ZR producer since 25% isn't chickenfeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 It's hard for any model to be in the GFS camp because it shows something new just about every other run. On to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 00z Canadian is rather wintry. Continues to bang the early precip arrival with substantial icing...with a tick of snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Lookout, I agree that the high center doesn't need to stay in a good place. Also, I do think there could still be some ZR with this. However, in trying to figure out why the gfs doesn't cool it off any more than it does, I'm looking at the 925 temps and notice that they are already warmer than the 850's when the precip. really gets going. Don't the 925's need to be colder than the 850's to indicate any low level wedging of note and the chance for there to be a stubborn cold air hanging on near the ground for a good period of time without a decent high position? Opinion? Aside: The neutral ENSO is more favorable than average for a major ZR this winter. Actually, if one looks at ENSO for the major KATL ZR's since the late 1800's, ~80% of them were when ENSO was either neutral or weak even though they only make up ~2/3 of all winters. Also, there appears to be a slightly enhanced chance with a -PDO vs. a +PDO. I've got good rain out there now. I got pretty wet crossing the yard. Been a long while since I could say that! Hope it bodes well for at least a very wet week, with some cold cad gulf rain. I'm tried of weak fropa's that favor the north. And if I have to deal with more of the z monster this winter, so be it, as long as it's gulf sourced, lol. .15 in the pot so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I've got good rain out there now. I got pretty wet crossing the yard. Been a long while since I could say that! Hope it bodes well for at least a very wet week, with some cold cad gulf rain. I'm tried of weak fropa's that favor the north. And if I have to deal with more of the z monster this winter, so be it, as long as it's gulf sourced, lol. .15 in the pot so far. T, Whereas the 12Z Fri Goofy gives you 0.75" of QPF, the 12Z Fri Doc gives you a whopping ~3.5"!! Now, the 0Z Sat. Goofy gives you as nice 2"! 00Z Doc incoming as I type this. Are you staying up for this extreme excitement? Edit: 0Z Doc: similar timing for start of rain (ZR?)..by 6Z Tue into CAD areas. Edit 2: too much warming at 850 for major ZR in much of CAD region based on the past ZR storms and there is no sig. wedging. But some ZR very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 euro wallops western nc with the first low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 euro wallops western nc with the first low. Southern Snow, Something looks very wrong with this map. I see virtually no snow through this period on my 0Z Euro output. 850's hardly support any snow from the 1st (sfc) low. Edit: MUCH less snow on the 0Z euro vs. 12Z with upper low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 euro not as strong as the gfs with the 2nd low, still some precip coming thru ga/nc/sc as temps crash. and i agree gawx, temps don't seem to support that map, not sure why it went so crazy with the totals. EDIT: looks like the euro is on board with the gfs temp wise for tgiving day, highs in the upper 30s/low 40s for most of nc/sc/ga. goona be one of the coldest tgivings ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 euro not as strong as the gfs with the 2nd low, still some precip coming thru ga/nc/sc as temps crash. and i agree gawx, temps don't seem to support that map, not sure why it went so crazy with the totals. The major snow on the 12Z Euro from N GA to WNC due to the upper level low is not there on the 0Z. Max. snow amounts are barely 2" and only in a few spots..Another Euro tease? Is the Euro the Great Pretender nowadays? Is it going to keep trending to very minor? That's my guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I'm here. I like the way you read those maps Two or three inches would be about right for a good gulf bomb, but I've suffered some much while the rest of you enjoyed a wet summer, I'm having trouble getting a handle on it all, lol. We'll see. At least Doc is trying to be nice to me. This rain tonight has me encouraged more than I have been in a while. Thats two bands in a few days that have found me, and few others. Maybe the Moles are close by It's always a hoot how badly the models handle cad. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Here is a more realistic view of the euro..hr84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 The major snow on the 12Z Euro from N GA to WNC due to the upper level low is not there on the 0Z. Max. snow amounts are barely 2" and only in a few spots..Another Euro tease? Is the Euro the Great Pretender nowadays? Is it going to keep trending to very minor? That's my guess right now.It did the same with that other storm a couple of weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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