Lookout Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I'm assuming this warming is a result of the lack of strong wedging to keep a feed of cold air. I don't think it is. I think it's just the models having a hard time seeing the evaporational cooling aspect mostly. Besides the idea you have to have a continuous feed of cold air isn't accurate anyway for the damming regions some of the time. All you need is cold/dry enough airmass ahead of a system, sufficient precip to get to your wetbulb, a sufficient depth of cold air in the boundary layer, mid level/850mb temps that aren't too warm, and a general easterly flow in the low levels. We've had plenty of ice events where the high has moved out and no longer in a good place or "feeding the cold air" in. If we were only seeing the surface this cold and dry, i'd believe it but it's pretty cold at 950mb through 12z tue with a general easterly flow there and E to NE flow at the surface. So I'm having a hard time believing we start with temps 35 to 37 and dewpoints betweeb 0 and 10 and end up only seeing temps of 32 to 34 the gfs is progging monday night. After 12z, temps should rise quick as temps right off the surface..900 to 950mb rise very quickly. (not to mention 850mb temps). Don't think it will be a huge deal as I said before but I find the temperature response by the models to be fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 00z NAM - ICE In Upstate SC, Mountains of NC moving over a tad towards West Central NC, NE Corner of GA by hr 81. Maybe even a tad really close to ATL from low quality maps. Snow in the tip top NorthWest corner of NC. EDIT: By hr 84, ice heading towards CLT and Central NC Looks like all rain in CAE for anyone wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 00z NAM - ICE In Upstate SC, Mountains of NC moving over a tad towards West Central NC, NE Corner of GA by hr 81. Maybe even a tad really close to ATL from low quality maps. Snow in the tip top NorthWest corner of NC. EDIT: By hr 84, ice heading towards CLT and Central NC Looks like all rain in CAE for anyone wondering. It even shows a brief start as snow in the n ga mtns. As the precip comes in pockets of sub freezing 850 temps are showing up. This usually shows up better as we get closer. 2m temps stay in the low to mid 30's by 84 hours in the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Sounding from Charlotte area (fwiw, it does look like the extrapolated NAM would change over to rain eventually, if not fast): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 It even shows a brief start as snow in the n ga mtns. As the precip comes in pockets of sub freezing 850 temps are showing up. This usually shows up better as we get closer. 2m temps stay in the low to mid 30's by 84 hours in the mtns. Can you give me a location and time? The soundings I'm looking at all over N GA even at the very onset of precip have a huge warm bubble to show ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 00z NAM - ICE In Upstate SC, Mountains of NC moving over a tad towards West Central NC, NE Corner of GA by hr 81. Maybe even a tad really close to ATL from low quality maps. Snow in the tip top NorthWest corner of NC. EDIT: By hr 84, ice heading towards CLT and Central NC Looks like all rain in CAE for anyone wondering. Well it is 84 hours out so subject to change. I think it is plausible and lookout has the right of it with such low dew points. Someone will probably end up seeing some zr out of this. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 You sir, continue to impress with your cogent assessments. Imagine what your life would have been like had you not worked at the Quickie Mart/Nuclear power station, but had studied at the US Department of Inclement Weather instead! I for one will welcome a very cold, very hard gulf rain, with some opening sleets, if the cad is deep enough...and if we don't end up with a runner in a few days, lol. T Thanks. I don't usually post my forecast thoughts since there are so many much more qualified than I am. I'm not really sure what made me post this time. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Thanks. I don't usually post my forecast thoughts since there are so many much more qualified than I am. I'm not really sure what made me post this time. lol Because you're probably right Mr. Burns. You've seen a lot more than most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 You sir, continue to impress with your cogent assessments. Imagine what your life would have been like had you not worked at the Quickie Mart/Nuclear power station, but had studied at the US Department of Inclement Weather instead! I for one will welcome a very cold, very hard gulf rain, with some opening sleets, if the cad is deep enough...and if we don't end up with a runner in a few days, lol. TThanks. I don't usually post my forecast thoughts since there are so many much more qualified than I am. I'm not really sure what made me post this time. lol You're trying to temper the brick meltdown from crazy high expectations. Seriously though for us I think you're spot on and you didn't even make a joke about getting laid. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 18z GFS mems are all over the place inside day 5... Everything from a 993 over Augusta to 986 near DC to a late bloomer 1003 coming out of the northern Gulf, maybe a bomb in upstate NY too, pick your dart, and throw. This just goes to show the difficulty in predicting stream interactions, when and where they occur, and what pieces of energy are involved, northern stream usually the wild draw 4. There is a trend in my opinion towards more interaction vs compete separation which was showing up on the guidance a couple days ago. This is a dumpster fire any way you look at it though for most south of VA without sig elevation. Kinda of damned if it does damned if is doesn't situation (cold air damning a miss with the high exiting stage right), more interaction means it is gonna take place earlier which cuts the slp inland, and is a primary slp vs possibly trailing. That would help to crash heights on the backside, maybe central TN wins out, unsure. The potential is certainly here for more interaction which cranks a bomb riding up 95, conversely, the polar jet could skip off the top, which means we are going to have a second wave, maybe better chance of frozen type on a saturated ground for some outside elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 you didn't even make a joke about getting laid. That's because we are still in afterglow mode here. There's a reason for everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 NAM is interesting. Breaks out ice pellets at hr78 around Hickory with snow in the northern foothills/mountains. Then quickly goes to freezing rain for a large area of western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 NAM is sleety for HKY at hour 81. AVL looks like snow/rain mix perhaps at 78, but turns to rain shortly after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 00z NAM - ICE In Upstate SC, Mountains of NC moving over a tad towards West Central NC, NE Corner of GA by hr 81. Maybe even a tad really close to ATL from low quality maps. Snow in the tip top NorthWest corner of NC. EDIT: By hr 84, ice heading towards CLT and Central NC Looks like all rain in CAE for anyone wondering. nam is a bit colder and it's also stronger with E to ENE surface flow. It has subfreezing temps/freezing rain all the way down to atlanta by hour 78. Cold day monday with highs maybe not getting out of the 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 nam is a bit colder and it's also stronger with E to ENE surface flow. nam usually ends up being right for the varying climates in western NC. Very good handling cold air in the mountains/foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 NAM is interesting. Breaks out ice pellets at hr78 around Hickory with snow in the northern foothills/mountains. Then quickly goes to freezing rain for a large area of western NC. Warming quickly, unsure if I would buy into that 78hrs out... It does have a better N-S orientation with a polar jet streak coming into the northern plains compared to the GFS, something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 nam is a bit colder and it's also stronger with E to ENE surface flow. It has subfreezing temps/freezing rain all the way down to atlanta by hour 78. Cold day monday with highs maybe not getting out of the 30s From what I see, ATL gets around .10-.11 as ZR before going to rain. GSP gets closer to .27-.30 before going to rain. For some reason in bufkit, CLT barely gets any ZR and it shows snow (but WAY too warm on the sounding) for that.. so like 0.06 or something through 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blueridgeweather Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/2013/11/okay-guys-so-ill-come-right-out-and-say.html Checkout the link for my thoughts on the storm. new to americanwx but I cover the Southern Apps. From Blacksburg just graduated from VT. Hoping to get into Broadcast met. Interesting storm. All about the ULL. Seems to be the trend of the last 4 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/2013/11/okay-guys-so-ill-come-right-out-and-say.html Checkout the link for my thoughts on the storm. new to americanwx but I cover the Southern Apps. From Blacksburg just graduated from VT. Hoping to get into Broadcast met. Interesting storm. All about the ULL. Seems to be the trend of the last 4 years. Off topic: but big tip to yourself and anyone else who has or is thinking of making a website. While free blog platforms are great, it's always best to get your own .com domain name. You can link your own domain name within blogger and other free hosting providers and you have control of it as long as you pay the $10 yearly fee for it. It opens up a whole new world of possibilites and website development down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/2013/11/okay-guys-so-ill-come-right-out-and-say.html Checkout the link for my thoughts on the storm. new to americanwx but I cover the Southern Apps. From Blacksburg just graduated from VT. Hoping to get into Broadcast met. Interesting storm. All about the ULL. Seems to be the trend of the last 4 years. Welcome. I lived in Floyd County VA for five years that included the awesome 76-77 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Thanks. I don't usually post my forecast thoughts since there are so many much more qualified than I am. I'm not really sure what made me post this time. lol Probably some old memories triggered this outburst, and we are glad it did. Not many were around in the late 19th century to see the last big cold decade of ice and snow, so any thing that triggers in you is welcome...weather wise that is, lol. When I see non reinforced cad with a big waa machine coming into it, I don't give it much of a chance, but the thing about cad is once it's entrenched it can be a stubborn B to move, and as Chris says, if it's deep enough and cold enough.....well...I wouldn't rule out the NE parts of Ga. seeing some light icing...maybe blink or you'll miss it stuff. But I'm with Larry in that I like to see it reinforced on the ne winds, not moving away. One of my all time favorite storms was a cad set up much like this with a huge low coming out of the gulf, and it poured and poured rain all night, inches, and the temps didn't budge off 33 until maybe 5am, when the high that was moving down behind, gave it that last little reinforcing boost, and I woke up to the loudest sleet I've ever heard. Got a good 4 inch fall before it quit. Then the cad pulled away, sun came out, scoured out, and the melting started post haste. But what a storm while it fell. That was back when Guy Sharpe was all the weather you had, and, of course, he was all cold rain, and taped at 11 pm from the 6 pm report. Big surprise storm, that probably need not have been if we'd had home computers and models on them back then, lol. I think that was another 70's storm, Larry, but I'd have to check and see when Guy Sharpe was around. You and Chris, and Robert would have nailed it for sure T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 http://blueridgeweather.blogspot.com/2013/11/okay-guys-so-ill-come-right-out-and-say.html Checkout the link for my thoughts on the storm. new to americanwx but I cover the Southern Apps. From Blacksburg just graduated from VT. Hoping to get into Broadcast met. Interesting storm. All about the ULL. Seems to be the trend of the last 4 years. Always nice to see some local folks around here. Not too many from SWVA on AmWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 nam usually ends up being right for the varying climates in western NC. Very good handling cold air in the mountains/foothills. I find that the NAM is usually a bit too cold, but we'll see. Looks like the key on the front end is, how fast does the precip move in. This pre-storm air mass is the real deal right out of the arctic with super low dewpoints, and I agree with Lookout in that you can have ice even when the parent high has moved off the coast - last year we had ice with that storm with sfc winds out of the S & SE even - same type deal with parent high off the coast. Overall the trend today seems to be for the precip to move in a bit faster, and if that trend continues, I will have to eat some crow on the "no ice from a Miller A call"...tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 I think you guys in SE need to hope that the ULL slows down even more, would be funny if you some of you snuck in a SECS here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 0z GFS out to 45 looks pretty similar to 18z. Maybe slightly warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looks like GFS is gonna dig this ULL A bit more this run...QPF starting to fall over GA by 00z TUE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Yikes. Out to 69 and its a good bit warmer. Precip advancing westward quicker too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Gainesville, GA sounding at 12z Tues is rain...so looks a good bit warmer than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Rain storm on 00z GFS guys.. it seems at least at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Precip back over LA/MS really blowing up compared to prev run at 102. 500mb low wrapping up faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.