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Potential Thanksgiving Event


strongwxnc

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Explain it to her in 1/10th inch increments.  It'll sound more exciting.

 

Lol, t would except her school is in the zero tenths/no accumulation area. I don't know how to make 0 tenths sound exciting.. I did tell she'll have a decent shot to see some in the air (flurries). However, that didn't excite her at all. She wants her Thanksgiving break extended by one day, period. At least she has only a 1/2 day tomorrow. I think that the "heat up the thermometer to make it seem like a fever trick" may now be warranted.

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I know,,,it is a pretty sad situation. I feel for her. Are you saying no other private schools are open in the area?

Probably not. I work for Gwinnett County Schools and they are out all week this week .Well... at least the kids and teachers (my wife), I had to work yesterday and today, took a vacation day tomorrow.

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Just curious.....why no wwa's across the foothills and western piedmont for snow tomorrow? Even low impact events have a wwa posted. I see potential for a quick dusting to maybe a couple of inches based on some of the modeling and related disco here. We are within 24 hours so what gives?

 

It's because the confidence is too low. 

 

 

AVL should be more than that. We have two snow makers: 1) synoptic deformation band with ULL and 2) upslope northwest flow snow. The combination of these two features should produce 1-3" in Asheville...the most snow since 2010. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2-4" either as the negative tilt on the southern stream will lend a little more favorably for a more organized deformation band. As folks have said, there may be some surprises tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if snow forecasts busted too low in many areas.

 

On the other hand, I would be surprised if the Asheville airport picked up more than .5 but the mountains around it could see advisory criteria. Overall, I like the toss up on RaysWeather with 1-3 and dusting to 1 for Buncombe County. I wish you the best tho Asheville deserves some snow!

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One thing I've noticed from FFC over the years is that they can't mention or forecast snow without mentioning sleet.  We could have -20 temperatures through the whole atmosphere and they would mention sleet.  Tony must have some sway in their office.

 I wish :)  No, it's that heat monster belching out heat ripples, that gets the stuff going back and forth from rain to all sorts of frozen. It's rare that all of Ga is cold enough through out the column.  Somebody somewhere is going to get a pellet or two of sleet, lol.  You've got to call it, or sleetophiles such as myself send angry letters.  T

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It depends on what you consider "lucky" I guess but I think you will see some flakes in the morning if you are up early enough for sure. Considering that this is November, not too shabby.

Actually, we have good luck with Ulls down here.  It wouldn't surprise me to get back at all you that stole our extra rain, lol.  T

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Well, the FFC forecast of a possible inch may have put the hex on the chance for anything more than flurries here. Looks like the old upper low may be swinging a bit farther south with a slightly more positive tilt. The past two runs of the RPM, which was pretty bullish in north GA have backed off to only scattered flurries.

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Can someone go ahead and squash any idea of snow for the Triangle tomorrow before Brick gets in here and sees comments like, "it's still closed off" and "needs to be monitored closely"? Let's nip this one in the bud, shall we?

All I want is to see some snow fall. Just a little. Would be a lot better than this miserable rain we are having now.

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Not much happening with the watch upstream as most of the rotating cells are offshore, nevertheless, tornado watch in effect until 4am.

 

ww0578_radar.gif

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 578
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 950 PM
UNTIL 400 AM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
JACKSONVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEW BERN
NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 576...WW 577...

DISCUSSION...DEEP CONVECTION AND INITIALLY NIL TO MRGL SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY EACH IS FCST TO INCREASE GRADUALLY OVER NEXT FEW
HOURS...AMIDST FAVORABLY LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP SHEAR.
ACTIVITY MAY INCLUDE SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS...OFFERING BOTH
TORNADO AND WIND-DAMAGE RISK. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049 FOR
FURTHER/INITIAL NEAR-TERM DETAILS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.


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Well, the FFC forecast of a possible inch may have put the hex on the chance for anything more than flurries here. Looks like the old upper low may be swinging a bit farther south with a slightly more positive tilt. The past two runs of the RPM, which was pretty bullish in north GA have backed off to only scattered flurries.

The RAP really doesn't show much for N GA either...but it seems to show a quick burst of snow for central AL early tomorrow morning. With it showing temps ranging through the 30s during precip I'd certainly be more optimistic for a cartopper kinda deal if I .we're in Birmingham vs. Atlanta

Edit-Not the frame I intended to post, think it updated while I was looking at it and looks less impressive. Still seems like AL/W GA look to do "better" than this area though.

post-509-0-20084300-1385523800_thumb.gif

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The RAP really doesn't show much for N GA either...but it seems to show a quick burst of snow for central AL early tomorrow morning. With it showing temps ranging through the 30s during precip I'd certainly be more optimistic for a cartopper kinda deal if I .we're in Birmingham vs. Atlanta

 

HRRR backs up your idea.....maybe a burst of 1-2" near Birmingham.

 

BaC66nZIQAA98wR.png

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HRRR backs up your idea.....maybe a burst of 1-2" near Birmingham.

 

]

BMXs update is not too optimistic, while I'm still showing <1" per point and click. Two offices, to different forecasts with probably very valid reasoning. Minor event even by southern standards, but it's helpful to take look at neighboring forecast offices' opinions in situations like this where it's a tricky forecast IMO. Either way looks like a lot of us will see snow falling--rare for November!

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Atlanta gets screwed again. Same thing for the past 2-3 years now. Seems like everyone to the west, north, and east gets more snow then the Atlanta area does.

 

ATL has a really hard time getting snow in these setups because while a NW wind downslopes the hell out of them it does not downslope as severely or even at all for parts of AL/MS and obviously TN/SC.

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