Potential Thanksgiving Event

[superjames1992]

You'd think that scale was for freezing rain accumulations, not snow.  That's crazy.  Too precise, IMO.  There's no way they are going to be that accurate.

[Cold Rain]

Score! .2 to .3 I'd take it in mid January let alone late November. Back from my summer and early fall slumber to some familiar posters. Love it!

image.jpg

I was wondering where you were. Welcome back!

[Stovepipe]

Dustings must be quantified!

[Snowless in Carrollton]

That map is just hilarious. How in the world can you be that precise ?

[bingcrosbyb]

My baby is still closed off......Most models showed it opening up around 3pm CST. She's a fighter!

 

[WeatherNC]

Is tomorrows flizzard producer over Louisiana now?

 

Yes, this is the area of forcing for ascent / lift associated with the southern stream ULL, which will be opening up over the next 6-12 hrs.  The vort should actually amplify as it skims the northern Gulf coast, and take on a slight neg tilt as it moves from the Panhandle/GA up into the southern mid-Atlantic.  While there is interaction between streams, this is not a phasing of energy contained in them.  The southern parcel is jettisoned just inland up the EC in advance of the northern energy cranking down on the backside.  The deg of tilt the southern energy takes could advect more favorable conditions for severe wx into the coastal plain from GA to NC overnight, and the strength of the northern energy, and how far south it digs, possibly into N AL, is going to play a role in the backside SN band.  I love me some phasing, not happening this time though.  The EC dodged a close bullet, timing / placement were not off by much for a real bomb coming out of the Gulf.  

[EmersonGA]

I don't know if I have ever seen a accumulation map with a 2/10" - 1" scale.

I will make sure to have my engineer's scale handy in the morning.

[deltadog03]

I am impressed with the upper low/energy still digging a bit.

[WeatherNC]

You'd think that scale was for freezing rain accumulations, not snow.  That's crazy.  Too precise, IMO.  There's no way they are going to be that accurate.

 

The title is "Snowfall Accumulation" but then it says Sleet/Snow after midnight in the shaded area, guess the IP are cutting down on totals...

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Yes, this is the area of forcing for ascent and lift associated with the southern stream ULL, which will be opening up over the next 6-12 hrs.  The vort should actually amplify as it skims the northern Gulf coast, and take on a slight neg tilt as it moves from the Panhandle/GA up into the southern mid-Atlantic.  While there is interaction between streams, this is not a phasing of energy contained in them.  The southern parcel is jettisoned just inland up the EC in advance of the northern energy cranking down on the backside.  The deg of tilt the southern energy tales could advect more favorable conditions for severe wx into the coastal plain from GA to NC overnight, and the strength of the northern energy, and how far south it digs, possibly into N AL, is going to play a role in the backside SN band.  I love me some phasing, not happening this time though.  The EC dodged a close bullet, timing / placement were not off by much for a real bomb coming out of the Gulf.  

 

The real question concerning the backside snow event is: "Do we have a good handle on what's going to happen tomorrow". The snow in the mountains is a lock. For the foothills and western Piedmont.... not looking too promising. This one is coming down to the wire as to whether or not we even see any flakes. NAM has backed off for now and the GFS shows more potential. Another one of those wait and see forecasts.

[Jon]

My baby is still closed off......Most models showed it opening up around 3pm CST. She's a fighter!

 

 

I've been looking too since it was mentioned on the previous page. Last hour or so it got really close to opening and I was for sure thinking it would by the next update, but nope!

 

That map is just hilarious. How in the world can you be that precise ?

You'd think that scale was for freezing rain accumulations, not snow.  That's crazy.  Too precise, IMO.  There's no way they are going to be that accurate.

 

Probably in-house model generated and they were just too lazy to make their own QPF map? I can't imagine they sat there and made that table/map by hand based off their thoughts.

[AJF0602]

Decent rotation on cells off of wilmington, heading my way we'll see if they hold together.

[Wow]

 

Probably in-house model generated and they were just too lazy to make their own QPF map? I can't imagine they sat there and made that table/map by hand based off their thoughts.

 

LOL.. I can see a huge fight break out in the office debating where the draw the contour between 0.6" and 0.7" of snow.  This stuff is serious!

[EmersonGA]

The title is "Snowfall Accumulation" but then it says Sleet/Snow after midnight in the shaded area, guess the IP are cutting down on totals...

One thing I've noticed from FFC over the years is that they can't mention or forecast snow without mentioning sleet.  We could have -20 temperatures through the whole atmosphere and they would mention sleet.  Tony must have some sway in their office.

[GaWx]

 I had to tell my niece that I don't think there will be road problems tomorrow morning from snow, sleet or whatever to allow for her school in Sandy Springs (north of Atlanta) to be cancelled. It was heartbreaking to have to tell her. Does anyone have a dissenting opinion? That map doesn't even have Sandy Springs in the 0.2" area.

[DaculaWeather]

Find another school that isn't open the day before Thanksgiving?

[mackerel_sky]

GSP office says " good chance " of snow for a brief period tomorrow along 85 corridor. Needs to be monitored closely

[SnowGoose69]

Dobbins AFB going all out on the snow chances in their TAF...

 

2700/2804 34009KT 6000 -RA BKN003 OVC010 QNH2965INS
     BECMG 2706/2707 33010G15KT 4800 -RAPL OVC005

     BECMG 2709/2710 32015G25KT 0800 SN OVC005 

     TEMPO 2712/2714 32020G35KT
     BECMG 2713/2714 31015G25KT 9999 NSW BKN025       

    TEMPO 2714/2719 32020G35KT
     BECMG 2722/2723 33015G25KT 9999 SKC

[GaWx]

Find another school that isn't open the day before Thanksgiving?

 

Lol, too late for that but her bro has all week off. I thinks she's jealous. Anyway, rumors are apparently going around about anticipated bad driving conditions tomorrow morning in north ATL metro. I think it was in her best interest that I leveled with her although I guess I could have lied to make her night better.

[Cold Rain]

Can someone go ahead and squash any idea of snow for the Triangle tomorrow before Brick gets in here and sees comments like, "it's still closed off" and "needs to be monitored closely"? Let's nip this one in the bud, shall we?

[WeatherNC]

Can someone go ahead and squash any idea of snow for the Triangle tomorrow before Brick gets in here and sees comments like, "it's still closed off" and "needs to be monitored closely"? Let's nip this one in the bud, shall we?

 

Short range guidance looks pretty anemic, I would monitor the Sandy Springs school district, extrapolate any cancellations or delays to the NE ---> RDU for flake potential.

[Snow dog]

What's the timeline for this snow event? Heading to Cashiers tomorrow, and wanna make sure I don't have any problems getting up there

[superjames1992]

What's the timeline for this snow event? Heading to Cashiers tomorrow, and wanna make sure I don't have any problems getting up there

 

If there's an event to be had at all, it should be in the morning in upstate SC and be over by noon, at the latest.

[NCsandhills]

I'll nip it in the bud for central NC,

Please don't 

 

At least it is raining. Heavily! Made driving during rush hour a sure fun task. The amount of time I had to use my horn driving to Food Lion and back is not even socially acceptable.

[Cold Rain]

I'll nip it in the bud for central NC, but of course my meteorology degree doesn't qualify me to discuss other regions like Atlanta because I haven't lived there for 30 years.

  

Short range guidance looks pretty anemic, I would monitor the Sandy Springs school district, extrapolate any cancellations or delays to the NE ---> RDU for flake potential.

Thanks guys. That outta just about do it.

  

 

I'll send you the bill for the new keyboard.

Bury it in rice for a couple of days and that should take care of it. It worked when my phone fell in the toilet....well, the first two times anyway.

[WxJordan]

There is a chance of snow outside of the mountains tomorrow. The best chance will be somewhere along I-77 somewhere. This narrow band will probably be 20-40 miles long and it could produce some very heavy snow. I would not be shocked for some people to see a quick dusting with temperatures remaining in the mid 30s. It will quickly melt; however, it will be interesting to watch tomorrow morning across North and South Carolina.

Mountains will see some high snow totals. I would not be shocked to see a few snow showers to break containment and make it to Asheville. Asheville could see a dusting to an inch of snow tomorrow.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I had to tell my niece that I don't think there will be road problems tomorrow morning from snow, sleet or whatever to allow for her school in Sandy Springs (north of Atlanta) to be cancelled. It was heartbreaking to have to tell her. Does anyone have a dissenting opinion? That map doesn't even have Sandy Springs in the 0.2" area.

she must attend the only school in the state of GA that is open tomorrow.

[Stovepipe]

 I had to tell my niece that I don't think there will be road problems tomorrow morning from snow, sleet or whatever to allow for her school in Sandy Springs (north of Atlanta) to be cancelled. It was heartbreaking to have to tell her. Does anyone have a dissenting opinion? That map doesn't even have Sandy Springs in the 0.2" area.

 

Explain it to her in 1/10th inch increments.  It'll sound more exciting.

[HurricaneTracker]

There is a chance of snow outside of the mountains tomorrow. The best chance will be somewhere along I-77 somewhere. This narrow band will probably be 20-40 miles long and it could produce some very heavy snow. I would not be shocked for some people to see a quick dusting with temperatures remaining in the mid 30s. It will quickly melt; however, it will be interesting to watch tomorrow morning across North and South Carolina.

Mountains will see some high snow totals. I would not be shocked to see a few snow showers to break containment and make it to Asheville. Asheville could see a dusting to an inch of snow tomorrow.

AVL should be more than that. We have two snow makers: 1) synoptic deformation band with ULL and 2) upslope northwest flow snow. The combination of these two features should produce 1-3" in Asheville...the most snow since 2010. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2-4" either as the negative tilt on the southern stream will lend a little more favorably for a more organized deformation band.

As folks have said, there may be some surprises tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if snow forecasts busted too low in many areas.

[WxJordan]

AVL should be more than that. We have two snow makers: 1) synoptic deformation band with ULL and 2) upslope northwest flow snow. The combination of these two features should produce 1-3" in Asheville...the most snow since 2010. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2-4" either as the negative tilt on the southern stream will lend a little more favorably for a more organized deformation band. As folks have said, there may be some surprises tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if snow forecasts busted too low in many areas.

I could easily see Asheville receiving 1-3 or even 2-4 inches of snow from both features; however, I try to under forecast in general. I am not sure if UNC-Asheville is going to launch a weather balloon tomorrow. With it being Thanksgiving break, I am not sure if any of my classmates will be there.  The professor who launches the balloon did not say anything today about any launches, so I am not sure if it will be happening. But yes, I totally agree with that statement.