Potential Thanksgiving Event

[superjames1992]

Well that shows several hours of snow across much of NC. Not sure I am buying it as we always get dry slotted quickly with these types of rapid movers up the EC. But if we see some token flakes then great!

 

The NAM shows a similar development, so it's possible, I guess.  Actually, the 18z GFS looks about the same, too, although its coarser resolution makes it a little less definite.

 

I'm not sure if I've ever seen it really happen like that, either, but I guess there's a time for everything.  We'll find out soon enough.

 

The GFS looks like it changes over around 15z tomorrow and goes until around 21z with some flurries going until 0z Thursday with perhaps a little over 0.1" of QPF falling.  Again, that's just looking at the Tropical Tidbit P-Type maps and the 850mb freezing line.  I haven't seen the soundings yet.

[FLweather]

I know models can only do so much... But given the overall setup I'd say they've done pretty well.

 

But one thing Ive noticed is they've all to an extent have opened up the ULL into an upper level trough. Which probably shows uncertainty on the strength of it. But I just dont see this thing opening up. It has maintain itself pretty well thus far.

 

 

But call me crazy or wishcasting.. but over the next several hours as more northern stream energy comes into this it should only intensify this ULL. I think we could be shocked tomorrow with this back end snow thump.

 

Even on WV right now... shows a good amount of cooling in the clouds over TX.LA

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Here in the ATL looks like the typical light snow mainly on the NW side of town tomorrow, the downsloping will make it hard to get much on the SE/E side. Would not be surprised to see a dusting or maybe even up to an inch up I-75 by 12Z. In Cobb county where I will be at work there is a chance for a decent small burst at about 4-6 AM.

I guess that means that southwest of Atlanta here in Carrollton we are out of luck as well.

[kvegas-wx]

I know models can only do so much... But given the overall setup I'd say they've done pretty well.

But one thing Ive noticed is they've all to an extent have opened up the ULL into an upper level trough. Which probably shows uncertainty on the strength of it. But I just dont see this thing opening up. It has maintain itself pretty well thus far.

But call me crazy or wishcasting.. but over the next several hours as more northern stream energy comes into this it should only intensify this ULL. I think we could be shocked tomorrow with this back end snow thump.

Even on WV right now... shows a good amount of cooling in the clouds over TX.LA

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

Crazy wishcaster!

Hope you are right but I still see this thing accelerating NE like they always do. I fully expect to see the same sunny and 75 that metalhead is seeing in waycross tomorrow afternoon before the temps come crashing down again. Been burned too many times by these storms making a hasty exit.

[Spidyr2k]

Cool animation http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2013112612_ref_nmm_east.gif

Love the way the mountains just explode when the cold air barges in.    That's an awful lot of red flying around.

[fountainguy97]

I know models can only do so much... But given the overall setup I'd say they've done pretty well.

 

But one thing Ive noticed is they've all to an extent have opened up the ULL into an upper level trough. Which probably shows uncertainty on the strength of it. But I just dont see this thing opening up. It has maintain itself pretty well thus far.

 

 

 

 

But call me crazy or wishcasting.. but over the next several hours as more northern stream energy comes into this it should only intensify this ULL. I think we could be shocked tomorrow with this back end snow thump.

 

Even on WV right now... shows a good amount of cooling in the clouds over TX.LA

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

Well 18z rap has 500mb opening up at 23utc and almost at 22 utc.  Its currently closed at 22utc. Nam also has it opening up at 21utc so its stronger than predicted right now

[FLweather]

Crazy wishcaster!

Hope you are right but I still see this thing accelerating NE like they always do. I fully expect to see the same sunny and 75 that metalhead is seeing in waycross tomorrow afternoon before the temps come crashing down again. Been burned too many times by these storms making a hasty exit.

 

If it remains closed and intact it aint going to go but so fast.

[DaculaWeather]

I was noticing the cooling under the ULL

 

 

[deltadog03]

IMO, it looks like that feature is digging a bit more than what forecast models had it doing.  RAP looks like like its the furthest south with it....We shall see....

[DixieBlizzard]

I guess that means that southwest of Atlanta here in Carrollton we are out of luck as well.

 

It depends on what you consider "lucky" I guess but I think you will see some flakes in the morning if you are up early enough for sure. Considering that this is November, not too shabby.

[Reb]

I will be chasing this thing to some capacity through the foothills/mountains of ETN, I will have my gopro dashcam running. If anyone is interested I will post a link to the footage afterwards.

[NEGa]

It depends on what you consider "lucky" I guess but I think you will see some flakes in the morning if you are up early enough for sure. Considering that this is November, not too shabby.

absolutely - anything this early is a complete bonus - and would be a great ending to this long duration event.  if mby can get some flakes will have the gamut from freezing rain glaze, to a deluge, 3.25" and counting rain, followed by frz rain or sleet then snow? and all BEFORE dec 1? 

 

also commenting on the recent maps, jeesh i dont know that i recall something like that happening either.  its almost always cold chases rain - but this is an impressive redevelopment of precip and with cold.  it even pops the warm bubble in the lee of the mountains quickly. if it holds and we get snow, and this is an indication of winter, WOO HOO lol

[AJF0602]

Tornado watch Carolina coast

[Lookout]

Pretty fascinating system from just a pure learning experience. Models were way too low with dewpoints yesterday, by some 15 to close to 20 degrees here. (DP dropped below 15 yesterday here while models were showing dewpoints between 0 and even close to 5 below).  DP was only 23 when the rain finally started. Yet despite that, it did manage to get down to 32.5 between 4 and 5am and there were a lot of stations reporting 31.5 to 32 between athens and atlanta to gainesville between 1 and 3am. This was several degrees colder than the models were showing for quite a while.  Too bad the dewpoints weren't as low as advertised.

 

Looks like snow is a good bet for a rare changeover for many here in georgia for about 1 to 3 hours..especially northwest of 85 and west of a toccoa to macon line. There even is a chance for it to happen here but it would extraordinary if it did because I'm ground zero for being screwed in situations where cold air is chasing the precip over the mountains.  Regardless, an hour or two of light to even moderate snow is possible it seems..especially per the ruc/rap Last few runs shows precip actually intensifying as it moves east...exception being the latest run where it waits until it gets to SC to intensify some. =

 

here was the 20z run. The leading edge would be rain while the back half would be snow per soundings. Probably a little overdone  and I don't have much hope of getting anything because it would be really rare for a changeover to happen here under these circumstances...but the CAA is very strong so we'll see. I'd be thrilled just to see flurries.

 

 

[pcbjr]

Tornado watch Carolina coast

 

 

Here too.

[Lookout]

absolutely - anything this early is a complete bonus - and would be a great ending to this long duration event.  if mby can get some flakes will have the gamut from freezing rain glaze, to a deluge, 3.25" and counting rain, followed by frz rain or sleet then snow? and all BEFORE dec 1? 

 

also commenting on the recent maps, jeesh i dont know that i recall something like that happening either.  its almost always cold chases rain - but this is an impressive redevelopment of precip and with cold.  it even pops the warm bubble in the lee of the mountains quickly. if it holds and we get snow, and this is an indication of winter, WOO HOO lol

I was going to say the same thing. We never get anything this early anyway so it's pretty nice to even have a chance or have something to follow.

[downeastnc]

Tornado watch Carolina coast

 

Sometimes in this setup a line of tornadic cells forms 30-40 miles off the SE coast of NC moving NNE and the northern end can clip Emerald Isle and Morehead City out to Hatteras.

[A.J.NEGA]

^{Just throwing this out there...I believe it was feb. 2009 where the ULL bombed and drew in the cold air...the comma deformed right on top of my area with 7-8" of heavy wet snow. All that was after 3" of rain the day of the event. Looks almost like that same situation to me but im no met. Hart county GA by the way.}

[valkhorn]

I will be chasing this thing to some capacity through the foothills/mountains of ETN, I will have my gopro dashcam running. If anyone is interested I will post a link to the footage afterwards.

 

441 will likely close tonight. Your best bet is the Foothills Parkway or going NE along I81 since it'll likely remain open and salted. I know a perfect 'watching spot' near Abingdon, VA, but you need 4 wheel drive to get there.

[AJF0602]

Sometimes in this setup a line of tornadic cells forms 30-40 miles off the SE coast of NC moving NNE and the northern end can clip Emerald Isle and Morehead City out to Hatteras.

Yep know exactly what u are talking about, there was one day we had like 7 tornado warnings because of that set up here in jacksonville

[metalicwx366]

We missed that storm that currently has the severe thunderstorm warning. Surprised it didn't have a tornado warning when it was to the west of here. It had some decent rotation and looked good on radar.

[DaculaWeather]

The SREF likes a phase

 

[DixieBlizzard]

absolutely - anything this early is a complete bonus - and would be a great ending to this long duration event.  if mby can get some flakes will have the gamut from freezing rain glaze, to a deluge, 3.25" and counting rain, followed by frz rain or sleet then snow? and all BEFORE dec 1? 

 

also commenting on the recent maps, jeesh i dont know that i recall something like that happening either.  its almost always cold chases rain - but this is an impressive redevelopment of precip and with cold.  it even pops the warm bubble in the lee of the mountains quickly. if it holds and we get snow, and this is an indication of winter, WOO HOO lol

 

Would be awesome if we can keep winter this active!!! (You have run the gamut my friend!)

[kvegas-wx]

Just curious.....why no wwa's across the foothills and western piedmont for snow tomorrow? Even low impact events have a wwa posted. I see potential for a quick dusting to maybe a couple of inches based on some of the modeling and related disco here. We are within 24 hours so what gives?

[POWERSTROKE]

Shouldn't stick on road surfaces since temps not below freezing. jmo but as we were out salting today only saw ice on trees and that was minimal even up in Dobson

[mackerel_sky]

Is tomorrows flizzard producer over Louisiana now?

[weatherfide]

Is tomorrows flizzard producer over Louisiana now?

Yes.

[dsaur]

Looks like pretty good moisture.  I wonder how much makes it past Alabama's derainalizers at the border.  I've finally picked up in precip as the round ends, but more sw looks like it's holding together.

[LithiaWx]

Score! .2 to .3 I'd take it in mid January let alone late November. Back from my summer and early fall slumber to some familiar posters. Love it!

[WeatherNC]

Score! .2 to .3 I'd take it in mid January let alone late November. Back from my summer and early fall slumber to some familiar posters. Love it!

 

 

I don't know if I have ever seen a accumulation map with a 2/10" - 1" scale.