Potential Thanksgiving Event

[NCCatawba]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4m
ECWMF suspect with second southern snow, Believe front runner takes more energy, probably heavier snow for ne interior

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

2h

ECWMF splits snowfall pattern, suspect run in se, but ne/ southern plains pretty close

[BullCityWx]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4m

ECWMF suspect with second southern snow, Believe front runner takes more energy, probably heavier snow for ne interior

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

2h

ECWMF splits snowfall pattern, suspect run in se, but ne/ southern plains pretty close

Of course he thinks that

[deltadog03]

I wouldn't be surprised if there is some ZR/IP in the favored CAD areas.  I think **IF** there is, it won't be for long.  If you take a EURO and GFS blend, The MTNS could do VERY well with this one.

[GaWx]

Hey man, maybe I should have pmed this.. but it might be useful to others too..  Where on Earth do you get all of this data from?

 

Shawn

 I get it from a combination of many sources. A lot of it came from many days in the library reading old Atlanta and Savannah newspapers. That's how I know how bad the 11/24/1971 icestorm was in N GA.

[tnweathernut]

The trend on the models for this upcoming storm has been to show more and more of an opportunity for snow for someone in the southeast.  Hope that trend continues.

 

Delta, Lookout, and others popping in really let you know it's that time of the year again!  Good to see you guys and look forward to your thoughts.  I am honestly more excited about what comes behind the pre-Thanksgiving storm.  It's been YEARS since I have seen the Pacific look this good in the long range with such strong cold air masses on our side of the globe!  Now if we can just get the long range to become reality.

[dsaur]

Hey man, maybe I should have pmed this.. but it might be useful to others too..  Where on Earth do you get all of this data from?

Shawn, you are talking about Dr. Abacus here.  He has researched and collected data for Atlanta for years.  He works in this fire lit room right out of Dickens where the tomes are piled to the ceiling, and he has quill pens always to hand.  I remember more than one minor ice event around Thanksgiving, usually Athens, and NeGa's  way, with some over performing cad, but Larry usually has the charts to show me I'm getting senile, lol.  T

[GaWx]

Shawn, you are talking about Dr. Abacus here.  He has researched and collected data for Atlanta for years.  He works in this fire lit room right out of Dickens where the tomes are piled to the ceiling, and he has quill pens always to hand.  I remember more than one minor ice event around Thanksgiving, usually Athens, and NeGa's  way, with some over performing cad, but Larry usually has the charts to show me I'm getting senile, lol.  T

 

Lol! Interestingly, that 11/24/1971 major N GA ZR was followed by a 3-5" N GA snow and sleet storm on 12/3-4 caused by a classic miller A along with wedging! Wow, what a wintry 11 day period!

 

KATL 12/3/1971: High of only 35 and low of 31 with 1.1" liquid! Then, on 12/4, high of 38 and low of 31 with .02" liquid. KATL, itself (which is south of the city) recorded only 1.2" of S/IP but the city got 3" of S/IP per ATL newspapers! At 7 AM on 12/3, KATL was 32/30 with IP while Charlotte was 28/21 with S.

 

Tony do you remember this storm? Do you recall there being a lot of sleet?

[MichaelJ]

Hate to say I agree with Bastardi unfortunately. I think the energy will all be concentrated in the front running storm and the typocal Euro bias is to hang a piece back  rarely happens like it shows in the mid to long range. Look for it to move toward the GFS by tomorrow but if it doesn't, then we may have to consider it a viable option.

[HKY18]

The euro ensemble mean drops snow in NW NC mtns and foothills. So the op has support

[FallsLake]

Well RAH at least put the snow word into my forecast for Wednesday night:

Tuesday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%

[GaWx]

 Per old daily weather maps, Charlotte also had ZR on 11/24/1971 with a high of only 34 and a low of 30 (vs. KATL's 39/31). Total liquid was a whopping 1.31"! So, it is quite possible that Charlotte had a severe ice storm that day. OTOH, Raleigh never got down to freezing: high was 42 and low was 33 with 0.97" of liquid. The weather maps showed a strong wedge from a 1038 mb cold high centered over the NE US (more classic CAD unlike 11/26/13 projections, which has a high much further south scooting eastward without strong wedging). The low was a miller A (not miller B ,like I first thought), which is not common for SE major ZR's. On the prior day, the 7 AM TD's were 17 at KATL and only 12 at Charlotte. At 7 AM on 11/24, KATL had ZR with 32/30 while Charlotte had ZR with 30/28.

 

Chattanooga only got down to 34, Knoxville, Birmingham, and Augusta 36, Nashville 35. So, the CAD areas from Charlotte to Atlanta were the coldest.

 

And I just now verified that on 11/24-25/1971 there was a severe icestorm in NE GA to NW SC and into the western Piedmont of NC including Greenville, SC:

 

"11/24/1971

11/25/1971

Northeast Georgia into northwest South Carolina and the western Piedmont of North Carolina

Duke district manager in Greenville 'one of worst catastrophes of recent years'; more damage than usual because trees still had leaves"

[FLweather]

18Z looks similar to Euro so far.

 

Hangs back a piece engery with the redevelopment of precip back into GA,SC but doesn't close off close enough.

 

 

 

[HKY18]

The s/w is quite a bit stronger and more negatively tilted on 18z compared to 12z.

[NCCatawba]

No dice. Very brief window of wintery precip. Maps don't even show 1" for the mountains on the 18z. Neither did the 12z tho.

[POWERSTROKE]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4m

ECWMF suspect with second southern snow, Believe front runner takes more energy, probably heavier snow for ne interior

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

2h

ECWMF splits snowfall pattern, suspect run in se, but ne/ southern plains pretty close

 

He did say back in October that Winter would start late November and beginning of December would start very cold.  We shall see

[NEGa]

I know some say there can't be ice in a situation like what was talked about yesterday.. but these models are pretty gung-ho on making it a reality.

 

until a several years ago i might have been in the "cant happen" camp. however, after witnessing the biggest ice storm i have seen (or tied with one while i was in middle school ages ago) in early dec, and the amount of CAD events that we "used" to get around here and then a pretty much no cad event cycle since that dec storm i am certainly keeping an eye on this one.

 

over the last couple of days the temps have fluctuated and amount of precip but its been looking quite close even heading into the upstate and maybe ne ga. with the extremes the last few years i will never say never lol

 

it doesnt take much to get a good icing event in the cad areas...as others have said even if the cold is in-situ that can still turn into a decent period of winter wx.  i have been watching to see if there are any trends (lately the trends were warmer or no moisture sigh) and while nothing spectacular it has not gone away or shown temps shooting way up.  hopefully we will start to see the temps/dewpoints a little lower as we get closer - and the moisture stay on board as well - i remember several people, including mets, who swore the ice storm i am talking about in dec (maybe 05) could NEVER happen and wouldnt and made fun of our good local forecasters who were really blowing the siren for a major ice storm.  we saw who was right

[dsaur]

 Per old daily weather maps, Charlotte also had ZR on 11/24/1971 with a high of only 34 and a low of 30 (vs. KATL's 39/31). Total liquid was a whopping 1.31"! So, it is quite possible that Charlotte had a severe ice storm that day. OTOH, Raleigh never got down to freezing: high was 42 and low was 33 with 0.97" of liquid. The weather maps showed a strong wedge from a 1038 mb cold high centered over the NE US (more classic CAD). On the prior day, the 7 AM TD's were 17 at KATL and only 12 at Charlotte. At 7 AM on 11/24, KATL had ZR with 32/30 while Charlotte had ZR with 30/28.

 

And I just now verified that on 11/24-25/1971 there was a severe icestorm in NE GA to NW SC and into the western Piedmont of NC including Greenville, SC:

 

"11/24/1971

11/25/1971

Northeast Georgia into northwest South Carolina and the western Piedmont of North Carolina

Duke district manager in Greenville 'one of worst catastrophes of recent years'; more damage than usual because trees still had leaves"

Larry, don't remember it per se, just my internal climo that tells me around Tday is propitious, usually for cad zrain, and usually for ne Ga., and then again the week after Xmas for snow. It probably was just a tree topper in midtown, with more zr than sleet.   Feb is my internal climo sleet month, and Jan for z monsters.  Sn and ip don't trigger until late Dec, Jan, and Feb, and for hot snow March except for that blessed Bliz!! My memories are also for lessor events until after Xmas, but you are always showing me storms that don't fit my internal climo, lol. 

  And you have to know that after 73 all references to zrain, no matter how severe, just seem like nuisance stuff to me...except for the big one in the 80's...that one was close.  So after 73 any zrain in 71 would have just faded out as piddly stuff, and not worth thinking about   Folks in Atlanta who lived thru that Jan 73 are damaged, all of us, lol. Unless it's over an inch and a half it's just a bit of bother, lol.  And a lot of those storms are just tree top stuff.  It's the one where the power lines are dangling into the road, you remember, the tree toppers just fade.  I just know around Tday my ice ears perk up, if cad is showing, and especially if the gulf is involved, and that's because I've lived thru it before and remember, even if not the specific event.  Tony

[dsaur]

Doh!  Ok, you were talking about Dec 4th.  No, I don't remember that at all. But I may have been in Mexico.  T

[NCCatawba]

WxSouth

8 minutes ago

I have a HUGE update on the premium side under "synoptic discussion". Full of maps, where I think the storm will be at such and such time, the tilt of the cutoff and why it will remain closed and just for how long, and the dynamic cooling process that leads to the rain -to-snow switch that is looking more likely for TN, southern KY, northern Arkansas, MS, AL, GA and western SC to the mountains of NC. The piedmont of VA and NC are tricky from this far out...depends on if the northern stream outruns the Georgia cutoff. The timing is going to mean everything for folks east of the mountain chain.
www.wxsouth.com

[jburns]

Really?

Can we 5 post this guy for the entire winter?

Not until I can find an alternate source for Waycross snow obs.

[jburns]

I will venture an opinion on the upcoming event. I am discussing the western piedmont east. The mountains are a totally different climate zone. We have separate forums for NY City and Philly, but down here Miami and Boone share a forum. We will not see significant snow. WAA will kill any attempt at a long period of snow at the onset. Toward end of the event the ULL has the potential to produce a period of snow but outside of exciting kids of all ages nothing significant.

As I see it, based on years alive and not much else,this is how it will evolve. There will be numerous excited reports of sleet, graupel and flakes as the precip begins. It will rather quickly settle in to a cold miserable rain. Some freezing rain is possible but it will not be the type that will cripple ground travel. The ground temps will still be too warm to freeze precip falling as liquid. It will be the old trees, power lines and elevated surfaces type of ice if any.

The NWS forecasts will probably contain the phrase, "possibly changing to snow before ending" to account for the ULL passing over, but again while possible, nothing significant.

[FallsLake]

I will venture and opinion on the upcoming event. I am discussing the western piedmont east. The mountains are a totally different climate zone. We have separate forums for NY City and Philly, but down here Miami and Boone share a forum. We will not see significant snow. WAA will kill any attempt at a long period of snow at the onset. Toward end of the event the ULL has the potential to produce a period of snow but outside of exciting kids of all ages nothing significant.

As I see it, based on years alive and not much else,this is how it will evolve. There will be numerous excited reports of sleet, graupel and flakes as the precip begins. It will rather quickly settle in to a cold miserable rain. Some freezing rain is possible but it will not be the type that will cripple ground travel. The ground temps will still be too warm to freeze precip falling as liquid. It will be the old trees, power lines and elevated surfaces type of ice if any.

The NWS forecasts will probably contain the phrase, "possibly changing to snow before ending" to account for the ULL passing over, but again while possible, nothing significant.

True; what you stated seems like the most logical outcome. But the nice thing about weather is it can fool you sometimes. Here's part of RAH's long range discussion today:

"....BUT THIS TYPE OF

PATTERN CAN RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO

WET SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS. IF BANDED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND IF THE

TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO THE EVENING...THE IMPACT

COULD BE GREATER. SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR WITH THE GREATEST

THREAT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED

LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT."

[Cold Rain]

I will venture and opinion on the upcoming event. I am discussing the western piedmont east. The mountains are a totally different climate zone. We have separate forums for NY City and Philly, but down here Miami and Boone share a forum. We will not see significant snow. WAA will kill any attempt at a long period of snow at the onset. Toward end of the event the ULL has the potential to produce a period of snow but outside of exciting kids of all ages nothing significant.

As I see it, based on years alive and not much else,this is how it will evolve. There will be numerous excited reports of sleet, graupel and flakes as the precip begins. It will rather quickly settle in to a cold miserable rain. Some freezing rain is possible but it will not be the type that will cripple ground travel. The ground temps will still be too warm to freeze precip falling as liquid. It will be the old trees, power lines and elevated surfaces type of ice if any.

The NWS forecasts will probably contain the phrase, "possibly changing to snow before ending" to account for the ULL passing over, but again while possible, nothing significant.

:clap:

Very, very likely to be correct. On the other hand, it's fairly awesome to even be discussing snow for the second time before Thanksgiving.

[NCCatawba]

I will venture and opinion on the upcoming event. I am discussing the western piedmont east. The mountains are a totally different climate zone. We have separate forums for NY City and Philly, but down here Waycross and Boone share a forum. We will not see significant snow.

 

There will be numerous excited reports of sleet, graupel and flakes as the precip begins. Some freezing rain is possible but it will not be the type that will cripple ground travel. The ground temps will still be too warm to freeze precip falling as liquid.

 

I agree and would love to see some mixed precip reports from the board! Also, I hope we are both wrong and get nailed with some accumulations. 

[dsaur]

I will venture and opinion on the upcoming event. I am discussing the western piedmont east. The mountains are a totally different climate zone. We have separate forums for NY City and Philly, but down here Miami and Boone share a forum. We will not see significant snow. WAA will kill any attempt at a long period of snow at the onset. Toward end of the event the ULL has the potential to produce a period of snow but outside of exciting kids of all ages nothing significant.

As I see it, based on years alive and not much else,this is how it will evolve. There will be numerous excited reports of sleet, graupel and flakes as the precip begins. It will rather quickly settle in to a cold miserable rain. Some freezing rain is possible but it will not be the type that will cripple ground travel. The ground temps will still be too warm to freeze precip falling as liquid. It will be the old trees, power lines and elevated surfaces type of ice if any.

The NWS forecasts will probably contain the phrase, "possibly changing to snow before ending" to account for the ULL passing over, but again while possible, nothing significant.

 You sir, continue to impress with your cogent assessments.  Imagine what your life would have been like had you not worked at the Quickie Mart/Nuclear power station, but had studied at the US Department of Inclement Weather instead!  

  I for one will welcome a very cold, very hard gulf rain, with some opening sleets, if the cad is deep enough...and if we don't end up with a runner in a few days, lol. T

[buckeyefan1]

I will venture and opinion on the upcoming event. I am discussing the western piedmont east. The mountains are a totally different climate zone. We have separate forums for NY City and Philly, but down here Miami and Boone share a forum. We will not see significant snow. WAA will kill any attempt at a long period of snow at the onset. Toward end of the event the ULL has the potential to produce a period of snow but outside of exciting kids of all ages nothing significant.

As I see it, based on years alive and not much else,this is how it will evolve. There will be numerous excited reports of sleet, graupel and flakes as the precip begins. It will rather quickly settle in to a cold miserable rain. Some freezing rain is possible but it will not be the type that will cripple ground travel. The ground temps will still be too warm to freeze precip falling as liquid. It will be the old trees, power lines and elevated surfaces type of ice if any.

The NWS forecasts will probably contain the phrase, "possibly changing to snow before ending" to account for the ULL passing over, but again while possible, nothing significant.

That sounds about right for those to my north, but it's all 33 and rain for me  

[Lookout]

gfs  finally caught up with the rest of the guidance and is much quicker on the timing with light precip amounts already in west ga by 0z tue. Amazingly temps virtually don't respond at all with the increased precip..despite dewpoints starting out near 0 or even below zero monday afternoon. By evening temps are in the mid 30s with dpts in the low  teens  right before precip starts.  It does get some areas right at freezing but for the most part the  gfs has dewpoints coming up 30 degrees without the temperature dropping more than a couple of degrees despite appreciable precip. that would be quite something to see lol

[Brick Tamland]

True; what you stated seems like the most logical outcome. But the nice thing about weather is it can fool you sometimes. Here's part of RAH's long range discussion today:"....BUT THIS TYPE OFPATTERN CAN RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TOWET SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS. IF BANDED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND IF THETIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO THE EVENING...THE IMPACTCOULD BE GREATER. SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR WITH THE GREATESTTHREAT OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVOREDLOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT."

Even if it isn't much, just seeing a little snow fall now would be nice to see. Like an appetizer for more to come this winter, and would set the mood nicely for the start of the Christmas season.

[GaWx]

Doh!  Ok, you were talking about Dec 4th.  No, I don't remember that at all. But I may have been in Mexico.  T

 

 That was caused by a classic Miller A that moved due eastward over far north FL and with a nice dash of CAD. At 7 AM, KATL was 32/30 with IP.

[GaWx]

gfs  finally caught up with the rest of the guidance and is much quicker on the timing with light precip amounts already in west ga by 0z tue. Amazingly temps virtually don't respond at all with the increased precip..despite dewpoints starting out near 0 or even below zero monday afternoon. By evening temps are in the mid 30s with dpts in the low  teens  right before precip starts.  It does get some areas right at freezing but for the most part the  gfs has dewpoints coming up 30 degrees without the temperature dropping more than a couple of degrees despite appreciable precip. that would be quite something to see lol

 

I'm assuming this warming is a result of the lack of strong wedging to keep a feed of cold air.